Again, not saying you're wrong. But why will larger pilot groups lose smaller percentages of pilots and have a larger percentage of lifers? Total numbers would make sense but percentage does not (to me at least). I have never heard this claim before or seen evidence first hand.

The larger the pilot group, the more secure a pilot will feel about a choice to stay at said pilot group. Talk to most guys who decide to stay and listening to their reasoning and that is a big reason they feel its a safe choice. The larger a carrier, the more stability you will see. It will take a lot of guys to be furloughed for them to feel a hit in QOL of life or even become worried about being furloughed themselves. This also motivates them less when taking the time to apply to a legacy even if they aren't a lifer.

Obviously, this is based on anecdotal evidence as there is no way to prove this without a complete survey of all pilots at every carrier. You can't even count on those results as pilots would likely lie to prevent deterring pilots from going to their carrier.
Which carrier are you at? I'm guessing not RAH or it would be pretty obvious after talking to most CAs on the YX or S5 certs. I have talked to many guys that just upgraded at RAH that have already decided they are not going anywhere else even with more than 20 years left.

Right now, certain carriers are seeing higher attrition from the top (like Endeavor or AWAC) due to the uncertainty and less chance of feeling safe. Guys who once considered their carriers a career stop are feeling the pressure to move on. I know RAH is seeing ~20 pilots a month leaving from the CA list. I have heard of rates around 30-50 at other airlines. What is the attrition rate at your carrier?

When a legacy hires a class of 50, they don't hire more guys from the larger carriers. Usually, you will see a couple of guys from each carrier and background (unless a flow exists). So when TSA or Commutair have one guy leave that is a much higher percentage of their pilot group even if two or three of the guys are from RAH. They don't hire 20 guys from RAH and 1 guy from TSA because its a bigger airline. They try to diversify their new hire classes.

RJET has a large number of "lifers" because of their outstation basing structure.

It's simple: The completely un-commutable outstation schedules require that pilots live in base. Boy meets girl, upgrades, buys house, has kids, accumulates debt and other obligations and becomes a part of the community during the 10+ years that they slugged it out at a regional because 9-11 and the age 65 rule change marooned them there for far longer than planned. In other words, life happened.

I've been told numerous times by these types that they "could never take a pay cut to commute to reserve. I couldn't do that to my family....and my wife likes her job/makes more money then me/lacks career mobility/has family nearby/doesn't want to move."

If one doubts me, I cite as strong evidence the glacial pace of upward movement among the Captain lists in the outstations.

Other regionals with hub basing at least leave open the possibility that one could move on to a major and not change base cities...not so much at RJET. PLUS, pilots based in hubs rub elbows far more often with mainline pilots, leaving open the possibility of meeting, socializing and making contacts that turn into references.

Now, I have nothing against the "lifer" types and they have every right to do as they please. Their existence does, however, increase upgrade times and lower QOL for a longer period of time once one does upgrade. It is simply reality at RJET and another of many reasons to reconsider a choice to target them as an employer.

I can also tell you that I carefully track the changes in the RJET pilot seniority list. The attrition is usually around 30-40/month with captains almost always making up only half of that list. That alone should raise red flags for the prospective applicant.

TRUTH...100%. Could not have agreed any more, with EVERY portion of your post, sir.

Great post. Very well said.