magnus0322

I doubt it. BB has stated we do not have any hiring or retention issues. He foresees a lot of other pilots at other regionals coming to RAH.

God Bless.

RawHide

What is the current upgrade time? And current attrition numbers? Thanks

IlliniPilot99

attrition: 20-30 pilots / month

upgrade: 5-6 years (optimistic) 6-7 (realistic)

SenecaII

Those are current numbers for sure, however perspectivly speaking there was NO hiring between mid 08 and 11, so once the 08 hires upgrade the times will drop to 4-5 years. Still pretty high upgrade times. Republic has a very large group of lifers that have many more years till retirement.


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LAXSAAB

Isn't it over 7 right now?

flyingreasemnky

Most junior CA is Feb 2008 on JFK or LGA 145 but there are literally hundreds of FOs bypassing to hold out for the 170. So realistically its 7 years and will be for a while. Very little attrition from the top, mostly from the bottom of the list as FOs bail for other regionals.

CFIGUY22

There is way too much that can happen to this industry in 6-7 years to be able to gauge an upgrade that far out. May be more may be less for the new guy getting hired today. I'd say at least 3.5 years but what do I know.

flyingreasemnky

Best advice I can give after being in this industry a while is to go to a company with under 1,000 pilots and is growing or has fast movement. A large company like RAH has so many pilots that in order to get an upgrade the shear numbers work against you. I had around 900 people below me after 2.5 years when I left RAH and upgrade still more than 2 years away. I am now at a company that has under 400. I have fewer people between me and a full upgrade than I did at RAH.

At a company with only 1,000 pilots, it would take a mere 20 pilots month leaving for 25 months for you to reach upgrade. Enough time to get your 1,000 121 SIC when taking into account training and reserve. At RAH with 20 pilots a month leaving (2400 pilots total), it would take 60 months (5 years) to reach 50% (~upgrade). Sure, the flood gates could open and attrition could really pick up but you can't realistically count on that.

Right now, I know people leaving the big regionals like RAH and Skywest for the small ones that see quicker movement. I think the mainline companies also are trying to shuffle the flying around to prevent a few regionals taking over and shifting the balance of power.

GoHomeLeg

I am definitely not saying that you are wrong. However when comparing airlines (especially if they are two different sizes) it is best to look at percentage of attrition instead of total numbers. Theoretically, most airlines are going to have about the same attrition rates right now percentage wise.

This is due mainly to the fact that the industry was stagnate for five years and most of the people that are getting hired by other carriers have roughly the same qualification across the board (1000+ total hours TPIC with Check-airmen experience and/or military).

Moral of the story go where you will have the best QOL. Nothing in this industry is guaranteed, you might as well be happy/comfortable while you wait your turn at the left seat.

flyingreasemnky

Right now, RAH is seeing the same amount of attrition from the top as TSA is. So they are only losing 20/month with 2400 pilots and TSA is losing ~20/month. The larger pilot group will generally always lose a smaller percentage of pilots compared to a smaller one. Also, usually the larger the pilot group the larger the percentage of lifers.