Originally Posted by ConnectionPilot

I do not have any turbine PIC. I've been on the 900 in ATL for 7 months now, and enjoy it, except for being at the grasp of scheduling. In 4 1/2 years I've received about 1500 hours because of the reserve life. I'm still about 7-8 junior from a line. Obviously if I went to DTW I would hold a line, but that doesn't change the company I'm working for. I just want to know how the QOL at SKW is compared to 9E. Also, having a base commutable to, is important. Not that I don't want to be on the Bro, but those bases would be merely impossible for me. These are issues I'm thinking about.

Originally Posted by Utah

Help me with the math on this one. Junior RJ captains have seniority number around 1700 out of 3200 on the list. So a newhire is roughly 1500 numbers away from RJ captain if we stay the same size. They'd need that much attrition in 36 months to hold the junior seat. We've been losing about 5 captains a month over the last year. (And thats why the upgrades have been at a near standtill all year long) 2/3rds of our attrition is on the FO side and a good part of those are the ones not making it out of training. I do agree that attrition will double or even triple in a year or two, but we'd need to have 40+ a month leaving as of today vs. the 15 or so that it's been to get a newhire 1500 numbers up the list. ( Junior EMB captain is around 2100 or 1100#s away for newhire)

Another thing to consider is that we have nearly 600 FOs that could have held captain based on their seniority but didn't bid for it in the past. With future hiring looking brighter, they may decide to give up the good FO schedule for the PIC time in order to move on. That will change the dynamics as well.

If we add airframes it helps. If we get rid of the EMBs like the company alludes to in the financial reports or park 200s as per the current Delta contract it'll hurt. Someone more familiar with it will have to chime in, but I remember hearing years ago that the 200s start getting parked at a rate of 10-15 per year starting in the not too distant future. As in we only operate 700/900s for Delta past 2017 or so.

As far as the 10 year remark, I'm including his time that he already has. I'm based out west and mostly fly with he more senior FOs (the junior ones based here have 4+ years), but it makes me nearly sick to fly with someone thats been here 5-8 years in the right seat (which sucks on its own) and have them tell me that they also spent a number of years flying for another regional as well. I think I'm making peanuts on 13 year captain pay, but to know that they have nearly a decade in the industry and might make $50K if they work a bunch -

Originally Posted by amcnd

I think what Utah does'nt factor in, is SkyWest has been able to "re-capture" flying with planes comming off lease.. I.e. the Midwest, Airtran and now the USAir flying.... I don't see that stopping...

Originally Posted by MatchPoint

By 2015 we will more than likely be losing well over 40 per month and those numbers will probably be increasing. Just look at the retirement’s number for ALL mainline, cargo and major carriers combined. You’re talking 3, 4, 5+ thousand a year combined. When there are only about 20,000 in the entire regional industry you’ll find attrition levels at airlines like SkyWest reaching 500+ per year later this decade. Our top 25% on the list are more than likely lifers (no disrespect to them) but those outside the top 25% will have a super high turnover rate. Yes we will more than likely be decreasing in size but that will add to the attrition and some of our senior guys will start to finally see that SkyWest future isn’t as bright as their past. Plus there will always be FO’s at SkyWest who choose to remain FO’s because of schedules, side jobs and family.

I see the number one issue facing upgrades later this decade not being our decreasing fleet but the lack of hiring due to a lack of “qualified” FOs and SkyWest ability to maintain a balanced pilot group (CA:FO ratios).

Just one more note, I know a SkyWest FO who has 5 years seniority who made just shy of $70K and yes he worked a bunch. You don’t have to work very hard as a mid to senior level FO to top $50K total compensation. Also keep in mind that a “bunch” is subjective.

Originally Posted by Utah

I agree that probably will happen. I'd also imagine that we'll wind up with more 700/900s in the future. I'd even say the EMBs will be around longer than 2015. But I still don't see a someone hired today holding RJ captain in 36mos.

Originally Posted by MatchPoint

[SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri]By 2015 we will more than likely be losing well over 40 per month and those numbers will probably be increasing. Just look at the retirement’s number for ALL mainline, cargo and major carriers combined. You’re talking 3, 4, 5+ thousand a year combined. When there are only about 20,000 in the entire regional industry you’ll find attrition levels at airlines like SkyWest reaching 500+ per year later this decade. /QUOTE]

We need 500+ a year starting now, not later this decade for a 3 year upgrade. I'd agree though come 2014+ it could be even a lot higher than that.

Originally Posted by amcnd

Ya. 5 year upgrade (RJ) is more likley...the thing that will drive it down to under 4 will be pilots leaving.. Im hearing alot of "lifers" talking about jumping to Delta if this TA passes... Another factor would be were any growth is. East of the mighty mississippi.. Could drive the upgrade even lower, under 4 years. Pacific Northwest over 5 years easy.... Will see.