"Senior FO's to LCC". That should tell you right there that the confidence in The flow/long term viability is low...

 

Interesting that you say base is last in your line of priorities, why isnt it your first? Why would you move yourself for a regional airline and the associated atrocious pay? Its amazing that American is still able to sell this flow nonsense to potential new hires. Envoy is not going to be able to do the amount of hiring it needs to replace the people that should be flowing to American. Do you really believe they will hurt their bottom line just to honor your flow number? People will say I'm wrong, go ask the 824 how that worked out for them 14 years later. All it takes is another event like oil prices shooting up again, another disaster or tragedy, another recession or....hint hint, a pilot shortage at the regional level and who knows what will happen but I can almost guarantee it will be bad for pilots. Skywest or Envoy you'll be sitting in the right seat for not 1, not 2, not 3, and probably at least 4 years until you upgrade. Judging by your comments you will bypass every upgrade chance until you can hold the 170. Or maybe you'll learn. Thats a long, long time of month after month of despicable and deplorable wages that you'll be enduring. But I guess at least you'll be on the aircraft of your choice

 

Go to whichever airline has a base that doesn't require a commute.

Driving to work makes this a vastly easier job. Commuting to a line can be miserable, and commuting to reserve demands a special breed of masochist. I leave my house one hour before show time and usually have enough extra time to grab a Starbucks on my way to the crew lounge. When I commuted across the country, I'd usually have to leave my house something like 24 hours prior to show time. Just think about that for a moment.

Flow, aircraft type, flight benefits, upgrade time...these variables change every day. Bases change with noticeably less frequency.

Sure, regionals (and majors) close bases all the time; just ask any LAA guy with an SFO domicile, or a Skywest guy who used to live in MRY, SMF, SBA, etc. But if you go to a relatively stable regional, and live in one of their larger bases, you have a decent chance at a less-than-horrific QOL once you get off reserve. It is relatively unlikely, for example, that SKW would close SFO, DEN, ORD, MSP, SEA, LAX, or IAH anytime soon.

To sum up: Do whatever you gotta do to avoid commuting.

 

Uhh, ok. What do those prior years have to do with today? The people in the 824 will say the 824 flow/arbitration didn't even exist back then. It happened in 2010/2011. AA then filed bankruptcy, then when they started recalls/hiring again in 2013, our guys started to flow and have gone ever since.

We still had Flowbacks in 2008 due to AA's 9/11 furloughs. Those letter 3 days are over, and that old agreement is long dead.

 

Yes, it has "been hard for them to do" during a period of time that they WANTED envoy to shrink. During the fear mongering negotiation tactics of "You will be Comaired" and "We are giving away all your flying". Well, we weren't Comaired and we are seeing a 50% growth in returned flying that the other regionals can't staff.

The plan was never to shrink Eagle to a 1/3 size. Nice fear mongering though. Clearly, given the change in the regional market, the plan to shrink Eagle has changed. Good Luck on your "Quick Upgrade".

 

Not every senior FO wants to wait another 3 years or so at a regional, they are ready to move on.. not everyone wants to work for AA. A lot of people here hate the way AA management is after dealing with them for so long. Some people actually want to work for Spirit, Jetblue or Frontier for QOL reasons, a more favorable domicile, or a quicker upgrade there..

Doesn't really have anything to do with "viability" of the flow. I know CA's all around me and even really close to flow going to LCC's or other Legacy carriers because it fits their needs better. I know a CA that could have already flowed to AA but went to Spirit instead and loves it because he drives to work now.

 

If flight benefits are important, envoy has way better flight benefits. You have the same flight benefits as a mainline pilot. Its not seniority based like United. You have as much chance as getting on a flight as any AAG employee.

I have yet to run into a SkyWest employee that felt they were mistreated by Management over there. envoy leaves much to be desired in the employee/management relations department but we are still far from being a "bad" place to work.

Whether you go to SkyWest or envoy, you will still face the "unknown" of whether there will be enough newhires to ensure your upgrade. While at either company, you will be able to gain flight experience and apply, interview and get hired by United, Delta, AA, Spirit, Southwest etc except at envoy you will have the flow in your back pocket. There are so many guys that have not experienced the career progression that we expected. Myself included. I have all the "competitive minimums" that United and Delta want but I haven't been called. Why? Because 12,000 other guys are also waiting to be called. At about 200 a month, its going to take a while. I can tell you, its a pretty good feeling knowing that in about 12 months, one way or another, I'll be at a mainline. Go to one regional airline with a guarantee of NO FLOW or a regional airline that has FLOW with the slight possibility that it might not work out. Seems pretty simple to me.

 

The Flow is an opportunity for career advancement. Why would someone pass up another opportunity if offered earlier? While I will agree we do have some guys that are just sitting back waiting to flow but most here recognize that they are better off taking the first opportunity for career advancement that comes.

Just because someone works for envoy, they are not locked into waiting on the flow. They can still interview at any company just as if they would if they worked for Republic, SkyWest, Compass, TSA/GoJets etc. Its just another option. I'm sorry you choose to give that up. How has that been working out for you?

 

Have to agree with that 100%. Same here.. Current Envoy Captain, got stuck in the lost decade with age 65 and no real hiring at the Majors for years. Check all the boxes for the other places, have the internal recs, volunteering, job fairs, and so on.. haven't been called yet for a Legacy or Southwest. Oh, well. Not that worried about it.. Screw em if they don't ever call (and they very well may not, who knows). I'll be at AA soon anyway as long as there isn't another major catastrophe, don't even need to change the uniform.. lol. This flow HAS caused me to look more unfavorably on places like the LCC's though. Otherwise I would have probably already left to one. This path, as bumpy as it has been, "should" work out FAR better financially in the long run for me personally though.

Getting these Legacy jobs is not easy like new hires into this industry seem to think. You may never get one, many people don't ever get one. It's a lot like baseball.. lots of good qualified people try but not everyone makes it to the Majors (and not everyone wants too). Some people get stuck in AA, AAA or even playing overseas.. For every 20 Captains I know around my seniority, probably only 2 or 3 have actually gotten to UAL/DAL/AA through the front door.

Getting hired at Delta is pretty much out if you aren't Military, Compass, Endeavor, a PhD, or just one of the few lucky enough to get through their rediculous arrogant screening/hiring practices. Things like.. not getting a Bachelors degree completed in 4yrs or less due to other obligations weed you out of tier 1, even with a 3.9 GPA.

American is pretty much a huge longshot if you aren't Envoy, Piedmont, PSA or Military due to the very low number of normal civilian hires. The majority of New hires will be flow, the rest pretty much MIL..

United is pretty much your best and only real shot at a Legacy as a lone wolf normal Regional pilot. They are the only ones really giving a chance to normal Joe blow civilians who meet the competitive minimums.

So your chances of getting into a Legacy carrier on your own without a flow or a Military backround just aren't that great. Maybe 7-10 years from now this will be totally different. Who knows, but as of today this is the case. This industry is always just one big oil spike or terrorist attack away from total meltdown again.. even with the big retirements coming up.

 

I fall into the senior FO category and I don't intend to leave for an LCC. Unless it was southwest. A lot of my classmates feel the same too. But, for the past 2 years I absolutely would have, because it out flat out sucked. I tried and it never happened for me, and I'm kind of happy it didn't because going forward I think we're in a good spot.
To the OP, either airline you choose is a good option. The best way to look at a flow through is as a backup. While you're here apply at the other legacies, or LCCs if that's what you want. Or if you want AA, stay and flow. But honestly, the best thing about the FT right now is guaranteed movement off the top.