For the sake of US manufacturing, I hope Boeing turns this around. Best case it will take a while and it's anyone's guess what the final tab will amount to. As far as SW, 2017 probably seems like decades ago to GK. Once the cinderella, the shiny new MAX quickly turned from the beaming bride to the unfaithful trollop that left you at the alter with a suspicious rash.

Given the uncertain timeline, one might imagine SW hoarding whatever capacity they can garner. They've done it before. Keep in mind SW planned to keep the -300s through 2025, until forced to prematurely and reluctantly retire hundreds in 2016-2017, leaving a sizable gap in capacity. Coincidentally, at the same time, UAL had just cancelled their order for last -700 NGs off the line, leaving Boeing stuck with 60 NGs, to be offered at fire sale prices. Assumption was that SW would logically scoop them up to backfill the unplanned void created by the Classic fleet retirement. Nope, SW was still holding out for the bride. Hindsight being 20/20, I wonder if they regret that decision as SW has now been forced to defer the retirement of their older -700s in order to maintain capacity.

Why they recently allowed UAL to secure what is likely a very scarce number of -700s is a mystery. On the surface, denying growth resources to SW appears to be a wise move on the part of UAL. SW responds by deferring classes and upgrades(??) Airlines seldom succeed playing catch up or shrinking to profitability; ULCCs and majors smell blood in the water coming from their largest domestic rival. The once aggressive, nimble SW is now largest domestic carrier and showing traditional signs of being a bloated, slow 'Legacy creep', more focused on Shark Week and social agendas than market share, sustainability and growth opportunities

Once universally recognized as the gold standard, arrogance and greed have caused Boeing to stumble badly and even it's fiercest advocates are turning away, openly questioning Boeing's leadership and resolve. Hoping for the best at this point is probably not the best defensive strategy.

Popcorn anyone?

 

We hope so, but... think what the delays and lack of growth will do to LUV stock. This is the time to be growing like weed and capture as much of the market share as we can. Everyone else is. We're not because we hitched our wagon to a single airframe and are being left in the dust. To make matters worse, the public perception of this airplane is bad, really bad. Thank you news networks and the social media!

A lot of people stand to lose A LOT of money due to our inaction and stubbornness. A shuffle at the top would be the first step something is changing, and if we see that, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we announced the acquisition of one of those airlines.

 

Interesting times for sure! I'm looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out.

It's not a great economy to be a buyer right now, but kind of a perfect storm of events/situations to force a hand.

 

My hope is that this actually turns into a positive for us in the long run, be it by acquiring fire sale priced MAXes, a screaming deal on the future MOM/797, a sweetheart deal on A220s, or a merger with another airline.

Of course, 346 people are no longer with us and their families are destroyed thanks to Boeing & SWA stretching a 60s airplane into the 2010s & Ethiopian pilots who lacked some fundamental airmanship.

 

Speaking of squandered opportunities for scarce resources, 737s aren't the only consideration. Market share, cancellation rates, etc, aside, competition for qualified pilots is fierce among airlines. Fall SW pilot initial and upgrade deferrals could have been avoided by grabbing the very airframes UAL acquired. Wonder if UAL is deferring classes (unlikely).

I would assume many of those deferred SW poolies might be swimming over to UAL or elsewhere. Why continue to hope for an airline that already has 8-10 year upgrades and would rather turn away candidates vs. buying 19 used airframes to continue its growth agenda? The most attractive feature to most SW guys is the opportunity for overtime income opportunity; I'm hearing that's dried up too due to lack of airframes. So now that limited pool of applicants can expect further deferrals, in the hope of flying outdated narrow body equipment domestically, rough schedules, long upgrades, for less pay. Good news is the upcoming contract negotiation which, based on past experience, is expected to drag on for years.

Hmmm

 

Speaking of stretches, including SWA in the cause is quite a stretch.

 

19 used -700’s that won’t be ready until December anyway wouldn’t have continued the “growth agenda”. SWA is down 60 planes by then and was already hiring for growth. Find a hobby.

 

Like others have pointed out before, although the max will fly again, this whole event will make the entire "grounding" of a fleet more acceptable in the future. If nothing else, the argument of having all your "eggs" in one basket as a cost savings feature, might also be a specific risk going forward, no matter which model it is.

 

just food for thought, but to keep things in perspective- SWA is not boeing's biggest customer, United is. This could have had an impact on why United was able to get their hands on those 700's instead of Southwest or anyone else.

 

I'm not sure I follow your logic or your need for a cryptic response. Those deferred newhire classes would've been just getting on line in December, Just in time for those 19 -700s. Per your statement, SW will be down 60 aircraft, wouldn't having 19 airframes be a good thing? No one knows how much longer this will go on