hoover

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/18/789218046/boeings-decision-to-suspend-737-max-production-is-felt-industry-wide


They think a .5% point on GDP. That's pretty big considering economy is only expected a 2% growth next yr.

WHACKMASTER

Apparently you’re not very good at basic math, are you?

RustyChain

Boeing made the FAA look real bad. They made them look like they weren't doing their jobs. You can be assured that they are being thorough... that's as far as politics are involved.

Flyby1206

The longer this MAX issue drags on the more urgent it will be for something to be done or else SWA will continue to see market share erode. I don’t think it is crazy for SWA to merge with another carrier. The question is who?

If SWA simply wants to diversify the fleet ASAP then I think someone like F9 would be a relatively cheap acquisition, maybe $2-3bil? And a strong order book of Airbii.

Moxy/Breeze could be interesting considering their delivery dates for 60 A220s starting in 2021, although I’m not sure SWA would be interested in a brand new airframe as their first foray into fleet diversification. Acquiring an established carrier with experience operating an established airframe would be lowest risk.

ALGT might be the lowest risk network-wise with the focus on Midwest flying (SWA strength) and I think having more of a vacation package focus for SWA could be a smart, profitable, and a relatively easy addition. ALGT current market cap is just under $3b, so it would start to get more expensive when you add a valuation premium for a merger.

Spirit has about the same market cap as ALGT. Very low CASM carrier with a strong FL/Caribbean presence. Could dovetail nicely if SWA wants to get serious about Carib/S.Am flying, particularly with their FLL presence.

JetBlue with a market cap of $5.5b starts to get real pricey, and has the business model that differs the most from SWA. Transcontinental focus, premium cabin, international focus/aspiration. They do offer the BOS/JFK presence and strong FLL presence. The 190 fleet and A220 orders could complicate matters. I doubt SWA wants to become a 3+ airframe fleet.

Wildcard: Alaska. Mostly same 737 fleet with a smattering of Airbus frames/orders. It could be a low risk way to test the waters with the new airframe and dump them if it doesn’t work out. A chunk of AS 737s could be re-deployed away from routes they currently overlap with SWA. Could particularly help strengthen SWA’s California presence (less competition on west coast short haul, more gates). AS is very strong financially and not cheap.

All this to say nobody knows anything, but I’m bored as hell on the DH to recurrent and don’t want to study

MudhammedCJ

Good enough to know a temporary setback in airframes is a really stupid reason to want to merge with another company. But when it does happen, I can't wait to see you ask to give away your seniority. Of course, maybe you will, since you were gifted yours.

FNGFO

A “setback in airframes” is an over simplification of the issue. Mitigation of risk associated with operating one type is more on point.

Any acquired airframes via merger etc. wouldn’t be available to fly SWA routes any sooner if at all than the MAX. But SWA’s BOD is probably all to well aware of the kind of pickle SWA would be in if this had happened in two years instead of now. And any further incidents or accidents with the MAX would further exacerbate the issue.

Boeing is making SWA whole. For now.

There are ancillary issues with regard to targeted markets, competition etc. as well. But this is about minimizing exposure in the future.

gipple

All the thumbs up in the world.

Squallrider

We have the money, we have a ton of extra pilots...I’m sure airbus along with a third party can get a
New type pushed through faster than 5 years Gary eluded to and for cheaper than a few billion for JetBlue or spirit and with none of the heartache.

RustyChain

Airbus is booked solid for orders for a few years.

Squallrider

I’m sure for a big enough order they’ll find a way, especially if it’s the biggest operator of the b- 737