When this first started every airline was on the defensive. After the government aid and the liquidity markets reopening it is clear that SWA is transitioning to the offensive. Possibly the only airline that won’t be too burdened with debt to take on a recession after a pandemic.

With traffic still down 93% and obvious uncertainties, it’s still too soon to say no furloughs. Historically airlines don’t furlough for temporary drops in demand, they furlough to avoid bankruptcy. If they can’t get back a majority of the original market share they will most likely take it from the competition that’s not as financially prepared.

 

Bingo. This needed to be repeated and every SWA pilot should take this to heart before we rush to give away the farm in concessions. It’s become more and more clear that SWA is positioning itself to grab market share in the future as the the Big 3 especially pull back.

Now that they basically have access to $18 BILLION, we could work for free or double our current rates and it wouldn’t even be a blip on the radar. I hope everyone is reading the tea leaves in the same manner.

THE CONCESSION STAND IS CLOSED!

 

And if I may add IMHO B6. WN had 28% debt going into this, B6 also had only 31% debt, 2nd behind WN. B6 may not have the “war chest” of WN, they are smaller, but their balance sheet is healthy and they did a very good job preserving cash. Look for them to quietly take advantage of some potential opportunity on the back side of this. Maybe

 

They will be put to a vote and I bet you they will pass to prevent downgrades, furloughs and displacements! If someone told a number of FO’s and junior captains hey sorry but if you don’t take this deal your going to be commuting or on the street or a 3 stripes they will take it. Watch this pilot group is no different.

 

I will vote no to concessions knowing I would be among those furloughed. I have done it in the past. I also walked the picket line for 89 days as a result of my vote. I’m no stranger to hard times at an airline. NO CONCESSIONS. It is up to all of us to protect what was fought for. Traffic will return, and we will recover. I hope I don’t have to sit on the bench for a while, but if I do, I want to come back to at least the same contract.

 

. true dat.

 

and will remain so

 

Update to the TSA traveler throughput numbers. Traffic yesterday (Friday) increased by 38.9% vs the previous Friday. Traveler throughput follows a cyclical pattern by day of week with Friday usually being the biggest day of the week (at least since the start of the covid-19 crisis). Yesterday, saw 171,563 travelers people processed by TSA. Last Friday, TSA handled 123,464.

What's sort of interesting about the numbers is that the first few days of this week averaged about a 20% increase in travelers over last week. The last two days were right at a 38% increase. Is that the beginning of an acceleration in the trend? Hard to tell with such a small sample size, but fingers crossed.

Here's a visualization of the data since Mar 29. Each line represents one week. The purple line is the current week. The blue line is the week of Mar 29. The yellow line is the low point: the week of April 12.

Attachment 5295

And remember, concessions are FOREVER. Eventually, these traveler numbers will return to pre-covid numbers and higher. However long that takes, recovering what our profession gives up in concessions will take much longer than the amount of time it takes for passengers to come back. If history is any guide, we will never fully recover just as we haven't fully recovered from the concessions the pilots before us in the 80's, 90's, and 00's gave up. By failing to hold their ground, they damaged the profession: turning what was once one of the most respected, high-paying, and desirable careers into something less and more middling. Is that what we want our legacy to be?

 

Very well said. We need to remind Kuwitsky, McCrady, and GK of just how many years it took to make gains during the last round of negotiations. That will come back to haunt them. I don’t get the sense that this pilot group has an appetite to give any of that back especially considering how much of a pay cut overmanning and the MAX fiasco has turned out to be.

 

But again, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Indications are starting to point to them wanting the staffing, airframes, liquidity and ability to pounce on the backside of this.

Interesting how they haven’t offered early retirements (yet). Also, does anyone have any doubt that another merger/acquisition is in SWA’s short-term future?