Originally Posted by TOGALOCK

- I would really like an SWA FO to break down line by line, hour by hour how a FO is making more than a reserve captain at F9/NK. It’s true they can. I don’t doubt that at all, but all the SWA FOs I know who do work hard for it and are constantly trying to bash their schedule. The real indicator is if you compared the pay of a SWA FO who got their schedule, flew their schedule exactly as awarded and not a minute more and the pay of a F9/NK captain who flew their awarded schedule and not a minute more. More money is great if I don’t have to work for it. I’ve got better things to do with my time off than to constantly think about how I’m going to make another buck..

Originally Posted by Lewbronski

Yep. Sitting here at home listening to the never-ending high-pitched hiss of my tinnitus. Gets old.

And the 73 is very uncomfortable. And antiquated.

Originally Posted by Voski

I’ve read the ‘Southwest or Spirit’ thread: it was a great thread, however, most of the advice that was advocating for remaining at Spirit had to do with Spirit’s growth, upgrade time, schedule flexibility, and upside of getting acquired by Southwest, JetBlue, or another legacy. Frontier Holdings announcing their $6.6 billion deal to acquire Spirit has serious enough consequences that it’s worth revisiting under a new lens.


PROS OF LEAVING FOR SWA
+ I have very minimally invested with NK — and young enough where I could have around 30 years at SWA
+ I live less than 1 hr. 30 min. from MDW; living in base is huge
+ Earning potential is higher as a SWA FO than an NK/F9 Captain on reserve
+ SWA has retirements (according to APC) steady in the 2030s
+ SWA has a long history of stability and arguably the best overall financials of any U.S. carrier right now
+ SWA is planning on hiring 1300+ pilots this year and 3000+ over the next 2 years; lots of room for growth and seniority movement if hired early
+ No redeyes
+ Free health insurance

PROS OF STAYING FOR THE F9/NK MERGER
+ I live on the north side of Chicago, so it’s a shorter drive to ORD — that is, if the base exists after merger
+ NK has great schedule flexibility in the ability to add/drop/swap — JCBA dependent
+ Growth to 493 airframes by 2027 — if they can retain pilots & FAs
+ Pilots have a lot of leverage right now in the JCBA — if the economy holds together for the next 3-4 years
+ The ULCC model seems resilient and that demand for cheap travel is there
+ The Airbus is a nicer flight deck

… and that’s just it: most of the pros for staying at NK for the merger are based on incomplete information about the merger — if it even gets approved in the first place. This career has lots of risks and potential for volatility, but Southwest is attractive to me because of the relative stability and predictability of the airline. The things I love about Spirit will likely look a lot different after the JCBA. Additionally, hitching my career wagon to Spirit/Frontier seems like a bigger gamble over a 30 year time horizon as the only way to advance is due to growth and growth alone. Retirements at F9/NK are negligible for the next 20 years. I have some serious doubts about our ability to grow without drastic intervention by management.

All that said —
I am leaning strongly toward SWA should I get the offer to come over.

1. What am I missing from my decision calculous that I should consider - good or bad - about leaving for Southwest?

2. Are there any things I may be missing that would be a reason to stay for the merger?

3. Lastly, do you think that Southwest is insulated from the rise of the F9/NK merger? Are they a serious threat to SWA and why so/why not?

Originally Posted by KPer

You live near ORD? Apply to United. Absolute no brainer. You’ll upgrade in base before I will if you get hired this year.

LUV,
A 6.5 year SWA FO

Originally Posted by flyguy81

ORD isn’t a quick upgrade. You’ll likely be able to upgrade in the next 2-2.5 years. So no, he won’t be able to upgrade in ORD before you.

Originally Posted by KPer

So, 5 year upgrade in ORD at UA then? Beats a 9 year upgrade with SWA. Probably a 7 figure difference over a career.

Originally Posted by Mozam

One think I would never do is recommend where somebody should go for the rest of their career. This industry is one thing for sure and that is flaky.

Todays first choice was not the first choice 20 years ago, and chances are that in the next 30 years everything is going to change several times again.

Originally Posted by KPer

No one knows how their careers will play out and most of us end up where we end up due to circumstances beyond our control. I’m not recommending he go to UA for the rest of his career… I’m saying that TODAY… given his circumstances, UA is the wiser choice. No one is leaving UA to go to Spirt or SWA… TODAY. 5 years from now… who knows.

Originally Posted by TOGALOCK

This is exactly the point though. Nobody knows where the industry will be in the future. However, the one thing that has always proved true time and time again is to never chase that golden ring. Each time pilots think “this time is different”, but it never is. Get yourself on a seniority list and hang on. As zapbrannigan said before, hitch your horse to a wagon and go along for the ride.

I’ve found it funny that one golden rule of advice that experience pilots used to give to new pilots when they ask about which regional to go to is, “don’t go somewhere based on upgrade time. Today’s upgrade times are for people on property now. Not necessarily for those hired now”. Yet, now, people are now falling all over themselves because WB FO and NB CA have gone super junior in difficult to commute to junior bases resulting in eternal reserve at UAL. A LOT can change in the 2 years it will take to hold any captain spot or the 5 years it will take to hold ORD captain for someone hired today. All it will take is a new contract with better reserve language and it will likely turn overnight. Going somewhere based on that alone is foolish.

The OP already lives in base at NK. IF everything goes as planned with the merger he will have a new contract soon enough with better pay (if the new merged company actually wants to attract pilots) and will be well rooted in a combined 4500 pilot seniority list that will increase to 7500 pilots by the time the current order book is complete. I’m sure more orders will be on the way before he retires as well. Yes mergers can be turbulent, but it’s part of this industry. Every airline that anyone is trying to leave to right now (SWA, UAL, AA, DAL) has been through mergers before. Those airlines are still here after the merger drama ended and the sun continued to rise in the East and set in the West. Could the merger be risky? Sure. But no more risky than starting over somewhere new trying to reach that shining star that may not be as bright as you think.