also says they don’t expect to make any adjustments to hiring, staffing or training. Hopefully that stands correct

You know, future spirit pilots read what you say and make decisions based on your ignorant post..... not the best decision but it happens. Start researching and adding educated content, not pond swill. It’s a bad look and makes me think this forum is infected with bitter regional lifers. I just finished recurrent and the union and company folks said the exact opposite, more new hires without any reduction through 2020. Some April reduced hours were coming due to the virus but also the Airbus delivery slow down. Facts, although elusive these days, make for an informed group. I appreciate the previous post using facts to report what is really going on. Common guys/gals.... this is the big leagues. Act like you’ve been there....


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Spirit Pilot Hiring in 2020 & Beyond
 

I have been there, furloughed after 9/11 and downgraded in the recession. That would be great if they keep hiring (more seniority for me) but I’ve heard this song and dance before. Plan for the worst hope for the best.


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I was there pre 9/11 too. This is different . Hopefully the bow of the ship learned something back then


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Was the bow of our ship even in the industry during 9/11? Ted's pretty young.

That’s a harsh response to flyingpuma1. Specially considering he’s not affirming it will happen. Neither of us know for sure how this story will unfold, nor the company, nor the union. I personally don’t see extremes like furloughs but things could stagnate for a while, at least for our growth standards. It might be short lived though, but sudden drop in demand could rattle us all right. We’re not bullet proofed.

I wouldn’t advise newhires to change their plans. Take the job if offered. Just be cautious with your math. You might stay longer on reserve but hey, that could always be the case right?

Roll the Dice, come play Airline Pilot. Welcome to the Airline world. Funny how everything has changed in 10 days. Everything you think you know just went out the window.

Like every other news headline, people won’t remember this coronavirus by December. I swear if the news outlets didn’t broadcast/exaggerate it 24/7 for their ratings, we wouldn’t be facing this meltdown.

as far as the 2020 hiring, they planned for 64/month and so far they have hit or exceeded those numbers in every single month. April has 68 new hires scheduled. Subject to change at any time of course, but so far so good. I doubt it will stop but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they cut it in half for a short while.

I think as long as this virus doesn’t lead to another recession, we might make it out fine.

reserves are gonna be bored for a while though

i think spirit would do pretty well in a recession assuming oil stays reasonably priced. People won’t want to spend the extra money to fly a legacy so they’ll fly spirit instead. Companies wanting to save on travel will fly spirit instead of a legacy. It’s why a lot of us came here.

i believe our model is optimized for $105/barrel oil. Low fuel prices allow the competition to play their reindeer games to price match us.

20+ resignations in January alone. We're going to need to hire 68/month to outpace attrition.

curious, where can we see those numbers?

Today's SeekingAlpha write up on SAVE was equal parts encouraging and completely frightening. Check it out...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...sk-high-reward

oil hasn't been 105 for over 5 years. have we just not been successful over the past 5 years somehow? seems far fetched.

We’ve not been as successful as we could have been with oil at that price point. Or do you think BS like AA’s foolery with the E island, fare matching and gate limiting at DFW would go on if their fuel prices were 20-30% higher than they’ve been for the last half decade? Give them $100+ per barrel oil and the price differential becomes stark in a ULCC’s favor.

FYI, Seeking Alpha has a lot of amateur journalists/stock analysts writing for them. The article above does not even have an author real name attached to it.

My buddy at Frontier says their flights are pretty darn full.

I think the ULCC/LCC model is more immune to this. It is hard to make money when you fly 777/787's to Asia and Europe, and those PAX board via DFW and ORD, fed by 737/A320s.

the Big-3 model depends on the business traveler for revenue. Corporate America, Federal Government, and others are cancelling meetings and conferences, and embracing web conferencing/etc.

ULCC/LCC are possibly better able to endure this storm.

My opinion

If things get as bad as this article
says all airlines will be in the crapper, not just NK.

The problem isn’t flight loads now. It’s the demand in the upcoming months that has fallen off a cliff. No airline will be immune.

Correct. Current flights are already sold and paid for. Upcoming demand, or lack thereof, is what is driving all the actions of the various management groups. NK is betting this passes quickly for the moment, but that’s hardly a given.

I'm gonna buy a mess of 2021 SAVE leap calls and hope we survive, else i'll just go tits up with the mother ship.

Fortune favors the bold. Fear is the enemy. Safe spaces are available for the frightened. I don't work for yellow, but, as an ever increasing part owner, I am counting on you.

Cheaper oils benefits everybody, specially ULCCs. The cheaper the fuel, the wider the total cost advantage gap between us and the legacies. The more expensive the gas, less control we have over the total operating cost given the larger gas % share.
If traffic demands recovers quickly enough, we might be able to take huge advantages of this oil price war. Heck, we might even start hedging, I know I would.
Having said all that, there’s always going to be demand for ULCCs (taking covid19 and such extremes apart). In strong economies we stimulate first time flyers “creating” market traffic. In recessions, leisure premium travelers “step down” to fly cheaper. And lastly, don’t forget about independent business travelers that today might represent a very small % but will slowly grow as we add frequencies.

Cheap oil does benefit everyone. And that’s the point. An environment where everyone can take advantage of the tailwind is not what the ULCC model was built for. That “fit fleet” of young, fuel efficient planes is meant to take advantage of the competition having to pay more for their oil and their older aircraft.

Fuel is the number one expense for any airline. The legacies can play their games to suppress the ULCC niche and it’s growth when that cost is low. Those opportunities are much more limited when oil is selling for a more traditional price point.

This isn’t rocket science. The cost structure and higher personnel and support costs of the legacies make competition with a ULCC nearly untenable when oil costs more.

our fleet really isn’t that fuel efficient compared to any legacy right now. A CEO 320 built in 2016 burns the same as a CEO 320 built in 1995. We only have like what 25-30 NEO’s right now.

Only with cursory analysis. There’s a reason there’s a perf number attached to airframes, and that is is usually larger as they get older. A 21 year old airliner is not as efficient as a 2 year old one once you factor in the “life experience” it’s been through on the line.

Also, we’re not hauling cargo for a third party, and our seat density is higher. That means we’re not flying them as heavy and we’re moving more butts per unit of fuel burn than say AA.

Additionally, we’re accomplishing the same mission with smaller planes. A legacy would need a 767 or larger to move the same number of people as we do on a 321. Or a 757 to the same number as one of our 320s. Those fuel burns aren’t even close.

And, as you’ve correctly noted, that gap widens as we essentially go all NEO from this point forward.

Low fuel costs are a boon for us now as load factors will drop off with the current market scare. But we fare better in a more traditional demand environment with a normalized oil price.

Investors don’t share the same sentiment. We are down almost 21% pre-market

the entire world is down in pre-market

It’s really irrelevant what our stock price is at this point... until the hysteria calms down, all the stocks are misrepresented


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I kind of agree with this. Paranoia and fear is filling the markets. Nothing to do with "company ABC is bad" etc. Amazon is down 8%. Everyone self-quarantined will be using Amazon. Down 8%

watching the stock market on the day to day roller coaster of a panic driven pandemic is probably an inaccurate way to gauge things.

Tell that to the investors that fund our growth

Our growth is already funded. The investors were there when we needed to secure financing . That deal is done.... we just need to pay for it now


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It’s as ridiculous as a 35 year old looking at their 401k balance right now saying they “lost money”. Rational thought rarely exists in the market and it left the building about 2 weeks ago.

I can’t imagine the domestic fleet not being grounded for all airlines as this starts to grow more and pop up more on planes. The concern shouldn’t be stock price, it should be what is our burn rate on cash with a fleet not flying, would the government subsidize all airlines if there is a grounding (would assume so) and is Airbus in schedule to deliver planes and will we/can we postpone for a quarter or so.

if the govt mandates all grounding of US Airlines how could they not be willing to subsidize the losses...

I think we have enough fear mongering via soccer mom facebook groups and on Good Morning America.

Well if ya cant pay for the loans, that's a bit of a problem, no? And yeah, I would hope Donny would get some relief for airlines, cuz the banks aren't just gonna cut us some slack on their own. They have their own bills to pay.

yes, exactly. I don’t see how they dont, or how they can cherry pick which airlines gets relief.

This isn’t fear mongering, it’s not just closing your eyes and saying “it’s just a flu and will go away In the summer”

Why some continue to dismiss the medical experts on this and act like all is normal, it’s ridiculous. Nobody is saying they hide in a bunker but if you’re not at least considering possible alternatives like a brief halt to air travel, you aren’t paying attention to the rest of the world and how this country is trending.

This way of thinking isn’t necessarily out of fear, it’s out of being realistic and looking at all angles.

Maybe if our own government hadn’t said just 2 weeks ago that “we are at 15 cases and soon be at 0,” and took meaningful preventive action then, we wouldn’t be where we are now.

The medical experts are saying it will diminish in the summer....... I drank coffee from an RJ for years, I'm immune. Just bought 500 shares, buckle up boys, its gonna get fun.