That $1600 assumes halved ancillary revenues and exaggerated fuel prices. Payroll is made for the crews, and we don’t pay our contracted gate agents or crews much. But let’s assume that we only made $500 for the flight after all costs. X3 flights per plane x 120 operating planes. That’s $180,000 a day to pay for 20-30 parked planes.

Does it cost $6000 a day to park a plane? I don’t know, but if it were really a problem we’d have already parked the paid for 319’s and started running the planes with payments.

Again. That’s with grossly exaggerated costs versus revenue and assumes minimal ticket prices for every seat. Realistically that 321 leg I flew probably made $5-6000. For one leg. At rock bottom ticket prices with nearly 50 empty seats. Clearly things aren’t great, and I won’t try to pump that sunshine. I’ve flown sever 20-40 pax flights too as well as some sold out birds. But some basic math will tell you that many of our flights are handily breaking even. Particularly with payroll being taken care of by Uncle Sam.

 

True I had forgotten to factor in the cares act covering payroll. I'll be the first to be happy if we weren't losing as much as before because I'd like to keep my job as long as possible.

 

Latest from GM for July is 550 flights a day with an average load factor at 62% Hub to hub having the highest loads.

 

sounds about right from what I’ve seen.

 

To me it seems like the bounce back was quite rapid at Spirit. So in a few week when this bout of virus spreading losses favor in the media, we should reasonably assume that the bounce back will be there once again. It’s like we have workable data now.

 

IATA apparently disagrees with this assessment. Hopefully the leisure market will fare better.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/07/28/air-travel-will-not-recover-until-2024-iata/

 

So wait, the virus isn't spreading? It's fake news?

 

The effects of COVID on the overall economy should not be discounted but business travel was really never NK’s forte anyway.

So it’s not really a question of whether or not airline flying as a whole takes a hit, because it unquestionably does, but how that hit affects each of the players. With business flying taking a more severe and long lasting hit, those airlines depending on it get put at a disadvantage at least temporarily. With overall numbers down, airlines depending on a gate monopoly to fend off competitors are at a disadvantage, even those who use regional affiliates to control those gates. So in the end it sort of comes down to CASM. While WN, F9, and NK will be affected like everyone else, I think they will not only lead the recovery but improve their market share and long term prospects vis a vis the legacies In the long run. That doesn’t mean they won’t be taking a hit in the short term though.

 

stop looking for something to fight about.

 

Why would I fight over facts. The virus is spreading and that is the factor that determines the fate of the airlines and pilot jobs.