Originally Posted by Nick Bradshaw

Every time I walk past a Spirit gate (and Frontier is worse), its looks like a riot at a homeless shelter or a bus station. I've never seen so many garbage bag suitcases and shabby looking people. And often, there's a lot of shouting and cell phone videoing going on. This seems particularly evident in places like DFW and ATL.

I think the problem with the ULCC model and why the ULCCs are stagnating is twofold.

One, people have figured out that the low fares are a mirage once all the fees are included. It's only a good deal if you bring a backpack to put under the seat with your own food and drinks. People have figured out that they can pay a little more for a legacy carrier, and get treated like humans and not greyhound bus passengers, and actually get where you're going somewhat on time.

Second, I think the ULCC model is failing because they cater to the low end of the economic spectrum. These people were flush with cash when the government was handing them "free" money during covid. Then they maxed out what little credit they had to keep the party going. Now the funds have run out and they aren't getting on planes. They are the canaries in the coal mine of our failing economy, and eventually it will work its way up until we see a crash worse than 2008 with foreclosures and bank failures. America learned nothing from that. We doubled down on spending money we don't have.

Anyhow, best of luck to all of you. If I was at a Spirit/Frontier/Allegiant/Jetblue or even Southwest, I'd be trying to get in at a legacy airline before the door slams shut. In fact, I'd probably want to have a couple thousand pilot furlough buffer below me, because that's probably coming within the next 2 years when the SHTF.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver

Spirit is failing because the low end customer is running out of COVID money???

Spirit hasn't been profitable since the very beginning of COVID. They were profitable generally before COVID. So were those pre-COVID customers just spending free government COVID money? Is all your analysis this good?

And the failing economy? America just reported 4.9% GDP growth. Best in the industrial world, and high by any historical norms, even with high interest rates (which are high to try and slow the economy down).

But keep going, you're very helpful.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver

Spirit is failing because the low end customer is running out of COVID money???

Spirit hasn't been profitable since the very beginning of COVID. They were profitable generally before COVID. So were those pre-COVID customers just spending free government COVID money? Is all your analysis this good?

And the failing economy? America just reported 4.9% GDP growth. Best in the industrial world, and high by any historical norms, even with high interest rates (which are high to try and slow the economy down).

But keep going, you're very helpful.

Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo

"$100m in structural cost reductions." ie labor

At least they realize this ULCC model isnt working and a retool is needed. The press release reads very clear that they now see this rapid growth model for the ULCC airline isnt going to work.

Originally Posted by Halon1211

you guys should see AA 3Q…it’s makes Spirits look like child’s play. I do believe AA is a legacy…

so much for ALL the legacies are doing well…


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/10/19/...s-q3-2023.html

Originally Posted by Halon1211

you guys should see AA 3Q…it’s makes Spirits look like child’s play. I do believe AA is a legacy…

so much for ALL the legacies are doing well…


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/10/19/...s-q3-2023.html

Originally Posted by sailingfun

They paid almost 1 billion in pilot retro pay. They made a solid profit without that one time cost.

Originally Posted by sailingfun

They paid almost 1 billion in pilot retro pay. They made a solid profit without that one time cost.

Originally Posted by sailingfun

They paid almost 1 billion in pilot retro pay. They made a solid profit without that one time cost.

Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets

same reason UAL posted a loss in Q1 this year….they took the hit for the retro in the low quarter so they could show profits in the good Q2/3 quarters.