The housing market crash of 2007-2008? It's just not the same, at all. First you're talking about housing, which is very different and much more consequential than cars or credit cards. Second, auto loans and credit card debt are widely distributed between national and local banks, and in the case of credit cards, even more so as the credit card issuers also include retailers like Target, Costco and Amazon.

The big problem with the mortgage crisis was mortgages issued to people who lied about their income (lier loans/STATED income loans), among other problems. Those sketchy mortgages were then packaged into investment bundles, falsely given good investment grade ratings, and then sold in massive quantities to a handful of large Wall Street banks primarily. So when the system cracked, those large investments banks which were, apparently, important to the rest of the financial system, those banks were "going to fail" and take down the whole economy.

That is FAR from the situation we have with credit cards and auto loans. That debt is widely distributed between national and local banks and credit unions, as well as Target, Costco and Amazon, to name only a few. If there is a large delinquency of auto/credit card debt, each of those thousands of banks/retailers will each take a haircut, and the pain will be wide but shallow. In the case of the housing crisis the pain was narrow but deep, concentrated to a handful of banks that apparently we "couldn't live without". The difference between these scenarios is profound, both in the importance/relevance of the underlying assets and the way the debt is held/distributed. I do believe that mass quantities of auto and credit card default could get the ball rolling on a recession, but to compare it to the 2007-2008 housing collapse is moronical.

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I think that was true maybe 5 years ago when ULCC growth was strong, but it seems Americans have tired of and grown weary of their product. The winds seem to be favoring the legacy carriers again with all inclusive pricing and generally better reliability. I guess we shall see, since the almighty dollar is always king.

 

I’ve been sick of our product for the last 5 years 😂. I’ll happily welcome the JetBlue merger.

 

It's as if he doesn't understand that the Spirit business model is going to change away from the ULCC model. Reading his past analytical conclusions, I guess we shouldn't be surprised.

 

While it’s not exactly identical to the years leading up to 2008, many of the same indicators that started the dominos falling in housing are there, along with some new ones. The Philly fed released a report that an investigation revealed mortgage fraud in DSCR loans is over 30%, which is how many investors were able to borrow for short term rentals. It’s the new NINJA loan. New home builders in major metropolitans across the country are sitting on shadow inventory, which is why you see only one or two homes for sale at a time despite most being empty. They don’t have to report the home vacant until it’s given a C/O. Many of these builders are offering 3/2/1 interest rate buy downs, or even offering to eat a part of your interest rate. In other cities saturated with short term rentals, demand has softened and the market is oversupplied, and AirBnB restrictions are on the rise. Meanwhile a few million who deferred mortgage payments under Covid relief programs are now coming to the end of that deferment. Many lenders are backlogged on loan modifications, and each time they pull one from Fannie/Freddy to adjust it, they take a haircut when selling it back. MBS funds have openly petitioned the fed to state there will be no further rate hikes over concern about the solvency of borrowers in their portfolios. If the market softens, the recent years FHA/VA borrowers with 600 credit scores and near nothing down will see any equity vanish.

It’s not a foregone conclusion, but any combination of prices dropping, credit markets drying, or deep recession/stagflation will be detrimental once again to housing. The nice thing is this time around, it’s not derivative markets with all the exposure, but the tax payers directly since Fannie and Freddie now hold some 95% of mortgage debt.

 

That is all very good info. However it's important to acknowledge that the overwhelming majority of mortgages issued since the last housing crisis were issued to borrowers with credit scores and income within the normal standards of qualified buyers. Which greatly lowers the risk of default.

 

JB business model doesn't work either. Just look at their earnings over last 5 years.

 

Not even close to that simple...

 

LOL those are fighting words bruh. Be careful!! Funny part is that everyone forgot when NK was reporting profit every qtr.

 

To be fair guy, the Spirit product not seeming to work any longer, is just as “not so simple”.