Still more junior than a captain over at bluejet… 2017 for us. No disrespect. I know what you guys are going through but it’s more of a shock factor

 

I wonder how many the next cut will be and how soon. Have they mentioned the future staffing goals?

 

No, our management has been either radio silence or outright lying to us for a while now. How lying? Just a couple months ago a chief pilot told me that the training center is gearing up for hiring in the fall and I'll be a captain again soon. All lies. I don't think the chief was lying, I think management lied to him.

We didn't know about this furlough until it was announced. My next guess, and it's just a guess, is that by the end of the year they announce the sale of whatever planes are left that we own and another furlough of 100-200 and 50-100 downgrades.

 

Guys on this forum knew about the furloughs before it was announced; some down to the number. It’s not as secret as you might think.

 

The last 15 years have been an unprecedented boon for most of aviation, so, many, if not most current pilots have not seen the dark days of the industry. The last real recession was 2008-2009, and in the years since COVID, pretty much every airline has been actively hiring thousands, and many applicants have been able to choose from multiple CJOs. Regional pay in many cases has also been as good or better than narrow-body pay at a major was just 10-15 years ago. Instead of having to scrape by at barely-livable regional wages for a decade flying NDB approaches in an egg beater into XYZ regional airport before getting their big break, many are getting hired at majors after several months or a couple years flying a 76-seat jet for 6-figures. A couple years later, they're NB CAs or WB FOs at a legacy.

While this is certainly a positive trend for the career trajectory of prospective aviators, it seems some have difficulty being empathetic towards others having to endure a hardships that they themselves never had to experience firsthand.

 

I get the point you are making about empty toward hardship, and there is definitely validity to it.

That said, as a separate issue, I think it is important to point out that some of the data used is no longer valid, and I'd hate for someone to make a career decision going forward with old data/expectations.

I can only speak intelligently about DL. While there was a short period, induced by the post-Covid recovery, where the bold was true in small numbers, DL has barely hired 500 this year, is on a pause (for reasons beyond the scope here), and will not resume until 2026. Even before this pause, competitive hiring mins had come up significantly off the post-Covid bottom. The most recent NH's I have flown with were at a regional for 3-4 years+, not any less.

Same for upgrade timing, which has progressively trended more and more senior, and is currently about 80% for NB CA, and 70% for WB FO. Assuming no topline growth, someone hired tomorrow will need roughly 3500 pilots hired after them for NB CA, and 5000 hired after them for WB FO to have the first opportunity at upgrade (and would probably require a commute). How long will in take the next hire to reach those levels? In 4-5 years, It could easily be more senior than that. Regardless, there is zero chance a NH today will see the speed of opportunities that the 2021-2022 hires saw. They were extraordinarily lucky. That's just how the industry goes. The last 2 years of DL data is here, for anyone curious.

I don't say any of this to be discouraging, only to manage realistic expectations and hopefully assist folks in making decisions based on current info. Again, I can't speak intelligently about UA/AA, but I doubt they are much different. I hope it helps.

Best of luck. Everyone I fly with is pulling for you folks, truly. I hope we resume hiring soon and pickup every one of you we can.

 

not sure why such a large disparity but UAL is supposed to hire over 3,000 the next 18 months, I’m pretty sure AA the same. Delta I guess just being more conservative.

 

Last I heard for AA we were aiming for similar numbers to UAL, and supposedly (big rumour) they’re trying to prioritise NK furloughs for assessments and interviews so hopefully we can take as many as possible

 

Could be wrong, but I believe DL got a jump start on hiring a few years prior to COVID

 

This… their hiring wave started first.