Spirt filed for Chapter 11 again
#631
Almost there
Joined: Apr 2021
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#632
Banned
Joined: Feb 2025
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You answered your own question, you wouldn't.
#633
Banned
Joined: Mar 2018
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Sure! Because Spirit built their entire restructuring around aligning everyone’s interests so that everyone gets paid — or the whole thing collapses. Frontier is only one of three parties that are currently being vetted. The reason the pilots get paid is because Spirit has structured everything in a way that makes it almost impossible for a buyer to acquire them without paying everyone. All the aircraft lessors, pilots, DIP lenders, etc., have been cooperating and making concessions. If they are impaired in any way, all the concessions everyone agreed to fall apart, and then you have a mess. They also slipped in a $1.1 billion internal loan that has to be paid as well, which will most likely result in residual value for equity. At the end of the day, I believe Southwest will be the buyer. Here is a clue — research the implications of page 24, sections (iv) and (v). https://document.epiq11.com/document...=SPJ&source=DM
1. All the creditors are similarly impaired and their support is needed to get whatever deal transpires through the court confirmation - IE you can't have too many parties contesting the confirmation. No one party is getting singled out for impairement.
2. Intracompany loans inflate the enterprise value, which means the purchaser has to put down more money/new financing to acquire Spirit. IE Spirit has engineered itself against being bought on a low-ball bid, and would be a massive balance sheet hit for a small airline to acquire.
3. Therefore Spirit can only be acquired by an airline with the balance sheet and financing ability to put down a bid that will see some recovery for everyone included in the bankruptcy estate.
I agree with your logic. I think a Frontier acquisition doesn't really address either Spirit or Frontier's issues, and would waste precious capital needed to turn Frontier around. I also agree that the best outcome for Spirit is to be acquired by what I would call a "viable" airline. I am aware that Spirit is or was engaged with at least three entities over conducting a transaction. Perhaps one of them is such a large and well capitalized airline like SouthWest. Where I am lost is how you seem to be very sure that SouthWest was one of those entities, and that SouthWest is even now bidding on/acquiring Spirit. Can you explain that part of your thesis? I would love for it to be true. I just don't see anything definitively pointing towards that outcome.
#634
Banned
Joined: Jul 2023
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I think you’re right, Spirit should Christmas wrap all of its planes, maybe even a few birthday wraps. We are a gift.
#635
Banned
Joined: Feb 2025
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I think I'm following your line of thought.
1. All the creditors are similarly impaired and their support is needed to get whatever deal transpires through the court confirmation - IE you can't have too many parties contesting the confirmation. No one party is getting singled out for impairement.
2. Intracompany loans inflate the enterprise value, which means the purchaser has to put down more money/new financing to acquire Spirit. IE Spirit has engineered itself against being bought on a low-ball bid, and would be a massive balance sheet hit for a small airline to acquire.
3. Therefore Spirit can only be acquired by an airline with the balance sheet and financing ability to put down a bid that will see some recovery for everyone included in the bankruptcy estate.
I agree with your logic. I think a Frontier acquisition doesn't really address either Spirit or Frontier's issues, and would waste precious capital needed to turn Frontier around. I also agree that the best outcome for Spirit is to be acquired by what I would call a "viable" airline. I am aware that Spirit is or was engaged with at least three entities over conducting a transaction. Perhaps one of them is such a large and well capitalized airline like SouthWest. Where I am lost is how you seem to be very sure that SouthWest was one of those entities, and that SouthWest is even now bidding on/acquiring Spirit. Can you explain that part of your thesis? I would love for it to be true. I just don't see anything definitively pointing towards that outcome.
1. All the creditors are similarly impaired and their support is needed to get whatever deal transpires through the court confirmation - IE you can't have too many parties contesting the confirmation. No one party is getting singled out for impairement.
2. Intracompany loans inflate the enterprise value, which means the purchaser has to put down more money/new financing to acquire Spirit. IE Spirit has engineered itself against being bought on a low-ball bid, and would be a massive balance sheet hit for a small airline to acquire.
3. Therefore Spirit can only be acquired by an airline with the balance sheet and financing ability to put down a bid that will see some recovery for everyone included in the bankruptcy estate.
I agree with your logic. I think a Frontier acquisition doesn't really address either Spirit or Frontier's issues, and would waste precious capital needed to turn Frontier around. I also agree that the best outcome for Spirit is to be acquired by what I would call a "viable" airline. I am aware that Spirit is or was engaged with at least three entities over conducting a transaction. Perhaps one of them is such a large and well capitalized airline like SouthWest. Where I am lost is how you seem to be very sure that SouthWest was one of those entities, and that SouthWest is even now bidding on/acquiring Spirit. Can you explain that part of your thesis? I would love for it to be true. I just don't see anything definitively pointing towards that outcome.
You’ll have to dig into the details yourself, but here’s the framework my theory is built on:
Southwest has major near‑term international expansion goals, but they don’t have the aircraft or pilot capacity to execute them on their own.
Southwest has publicly acknowledged they’re evaluating Airbus — something that would’ve been unthinkable a year ago. They can’t rely on Boeing to meet their needs anymore, and they’ve openly said they’re ready to diversify their fleet.
Southwest has been buying back its own shares, which is usually a sign of confidence before a strategic move.
They completed a $1.5B debt offering in November 2025, giving them fresh capital and balance‑sheet flexibility.
A Southwest union rep ran a public poll earlier this year asking which airline the company should buy or merge with — and Spirit was one of the options.
Southwest union leaders signed NDAs in 2024 related to merger and acquisition planning.
Southwest has been reshaping its business model in ways that look a lot like Spirit’s updated model.
Elliott Management’s involvement adds another layer, given their history of pushing for consolidation and strategic transactions.
Spirit is divesting routes that overlap with Southwest more aggressively than with any other competitor. The latest exits include:
PHX — Southwest fortress
STL — Southwest fortress
MKE — Southwest stronghold
ROC — Southwest presence
Spirit is shrinking its footprint by disposing of aircraft, reducing ASMs and overall scale — a move that conveniently reduces regulatory friction for a buyer.
There have been multiple sightings of Southwest personnel at Spirit’s Texas hangars.
Expense reports show Spirit’s bankruptcy advisors traveling to DFW, which is Southwest’s home turf.
Spirit hired Amazon’s former fleet and network architect — someone with deep experience in large‑scale logistics integration.
Southwest has made no public comments about Spirit’s bankruptcy, which is unusual given the industry implications.
The new administration is more open to consolidation, especially in cases where a merger can be framed as stabilizing capacity.
The bankruptcy structure itself makes a merger legally defensible in ways that weren’t possible before.
And there are several other smaller signals pointing in the same direction.
#636
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,648
Likes: 99
……or perhaps they’re just exploring the possibility of buying some hangars if they can get them at a good price, just like AA bought a couple of gates in ORD.
#637
On Reserve
Joined: Jul 2025
Posts: 69
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I’d also add one caveat: American Airlines has now entered the picture, and although my theory still points to Spirit positioning itself for a merger with Southwest, I wouldn’t rule out a bidding war between Southwest and American if regulators gave both of them the green light to pursue a deal. I still think Southwest is the more likely buyer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if American takes a run at Spirit as well, even if the odds of that happening are lower.
#638
That/It/Thang
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 3,462
Likes: 273
I’d also add one caveat: American Airlines has now entered the picture, and although my theory still points to Spirit positioning itself for a merger with Southwest, I wouldn’t rule out a bidding war between Southwest and American if regulators gave both of them the green light to pursue a deal. I still think Southwest is the more likely buyer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if American takes a run at Spirit as well, even if the odds of that happening are lower.
Epic level trolling again. Epic. Nobody is this delusional to think this.
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