Polymarket gives it a 45% chance.

 

Roughly $40 million in cash is sent out on April 29 for salaries. We'll see if they get past that payment.

In their March 13 turnaround plan ($2.43/gallon fuel), negative cash flow in May was expected to be $70 million. Their cash low point was expected to be $430 million on May 30, before June travel picks up.

In comparison to their $430 million cash trough, they expected roughly $450 million in cash to be held by the credit card processor, encumbered cash, and set aside accounts - the easiest accounts to skip a payment to. Yes, the best case scenario was always going to be really, really tight.

If you think that Spirit may have spent $70 million in additional fuel costs, net of higher ticket cash receipts, they could be at the $430 million level on April 29, before the May negative cash flow starts. Spirit spent $63 million in fuel during the 28 day month of February.

Also, May follows a predictable pattern. Cash flow, at $2.43 per gallon, was expected to be positive in the first week, negative in the second (employee pay), positive in the third week, negative in the fourth week (pay again). Extra fuel costs probably doesn't turn first week and third week cash flow negative, but I could be wrong.

If the checks clear on April 29, the next important date is May 14. I'm fairly certain that whatever Federal agency is being asked to pony up knows the important days and cash balances.

If the polymarket prediction for April 30 is wildly different than that of April 28, someone could be "predicting" based on inside information.

 

Problem with your statement is TC told the government that a stand alone Spirit would be just fine. They asked point blank and he said no. That’s not the fault of the government, and makes your point completely invalid.

 

No, if you are on the Titanic and have been offered multiple opportunities to jump on a lifeboat but refuse, anyone refusing to feel sorry for you when you sink to the bottom of the Atlantic does not lack empathy. It’s simply a sad reality.

 

TC's statement was the sole reason that Judge Young blocked the merger?? Far from. Applying the Clayton Act to the merger gave the Judge little, to no, wiggle room. Spirit and jetBlue had to prove that the merger wouldn't lessen competition or negatively effect a market. That's a burden that's nearly impossible to overcome in any merger. A settlement would have been the only way around it, and the government had no interest in settling out of court.

 

There should not have been at a trial at all. Why did they sue to block JetBlue/spirit, but not sue to block Alaska/HA?

 

Perhaps the jB comment that their interest was to shut down Spirit so they can rise prices had something to do with it, compared to AK/HA saying they will be ran as separate entities. Perhaps?

 

Remember the unredacted redacted files? Those were the days. Brilliant.

Too many people on here are trying to point the blame solely on Biden/DOT, Christie, investors, whatever. This is Swiss cheese and there are many to blame. Maybe everybody. One bad choice led to another and there were many many opportunities to turn off the path they were on but they always stayed on the wrong path. The Swiss cheese lined up and the employees are dying.