Are retirements running faster than expected?
#12
#13
Joe,
That website used all the pilots on the seniority list...it didn't exclude non-active pilots. I wish I saved my snapshot but I believe my results are similar to yours.
Our pilot head count has been pretty static the last few years. It's always around 12,500 give or take a hundred. I still think hiring is barely keeping pace with retirements.
That website used all the pilots on the seniority list...it didn't exclude non-active pilots. I wish I saved my snapshot but I believe my results are similar to yours.
Our pilot head count has been pretty static the last few years. It's always around 12,500 give or take a hundred. I still think hiring is barely keeping pace with retirements.
Pilots on any type of leave - sick leave, LTD, some sort of personal or company leave are accounted for on monthly staffing and are double bid on vacancy and displacement bids. Even if someone is on LTD for decades and they are never coming back, until they retire, quit or pass away they are accounted for in staffing, vacancy bids and the seniority list.
I've tracked my seniority the same way you have for years and I'm ahead of my projected seniority by a couple hundred numbers and I'm just under 2000 on our seniority list.
Since the only way someone comes off our seniority list, staffing and vacancy bids is by retiring, quitting, get fired or pass away my assumption is a fair amount of early Pre age 65 retirements.
Your monthly staffing number is updated every month. It's your most accurate current system seniority number.
I've tracked my seniority the same way you have for years and I'm ahead of my projected seniority by a couple hundred numbers and I'm just under 2000 on our seniority list.
Since the only way someone comes off our seniority list, staffing and vacancy bids is by retiring, quitting, get fired or pass away my assumption is a fair amount of early Pre age 65 retirements.
Your monthly staffing number is updated every month. It's your most accurate current system seniority number.
Thanks for the info.
I guess I'll count it as unexpected good news plus I think you're right PG - they're just barely keeping up with retirements. More importantly though it seems that the old guesstimate of 50-75 medicals a year may be a little off now that we're allowed to go to 65. Looks like 100 is a better guesstimate.
For me this all boils down to my first captain bid. I had been planning to take the next available 73 or Airbus. I can hold 756 but I was planning on skipping that because I didn't want to give up my Christmas off time since I am usually the family host, but this faster movement means I'd have a good chance of only missing Christmas 2017 and by Christmas 2018 I should be senior enough to bid it off so all of a sudden it looks like my first captain bid may be 756. That would be great for me since I spent 17 years in the right seat, I'm pretty sure it'd be a smooth transition plus I love the flying on the 756 out of EWR. Transcons are my first choice by far.
#15
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 317
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From: CAP A320
But you can't go by the junior pilot to determine when you'll make CAP. There are guys well junior to some JR CAPs, that can't bid it. Things are definitely going more senior on the WEST coast and when the 747 surpluses occur, it's going to go way below any JR CAP number. Some of the JR CAPs timed it just right.
#16
Sunvox, two questions.
1. I'm misreading something. You were in the right seat for 17 years, yet you're already ~5000?
2. Looking at the pay scale, why go to the 767? It's only a bit above the 737 and Airbus, but I'm guessing you'd be much more junior. You mentioned getting vacations is important, so wouldn't a narrow body work out better for only a tiny drop in pay?
Just curious.
1. I'm misreading something. You were in the right seat for 17 years, yet you're already ~5000?
2. Looking at the pay scale, why go to the 767? It's only a bit above the 737 and Airbus, but I'm guessing you'd be much more junior. You mentioned getting vacations is important, so wouldn't a narrow body work out better for only a tiny drop in pay?
Just curious.
#17
Sunvox, two questions.
1. I'm misreading something. You were in the right seat for 17 years, yet you're already ~5000?
2. Looking at the pay scale, why go to the 767? It's only a bit above the 737 and Airbus, but I'm guessing you'd be much more junior. You mentioned getting vacations is important, so wouldn't a narrow body work out better for only a tiny drop in pay?
Just curious.
1. I'm misreading something. You were in the right seat for 17 years, yet you're already ~5000?
2. Looking at the pay scale, why go to the 767? It's only a bit above the 737 and Airbus, but I'm guessing you'd be much more junior. You mentioned getting vacations is important, so wouldn't a narrow body work out better for only a tiny drop in pay?
Just curious.
#20
Sunvox, two questions.
1. I'm misreading something. You were in the right seat for 17 years, yet you're already ~5000?
2. Looking at the pay scale, why go to the 767? It's only a bit above the 737 and Airbus, but I'm guessing you'd be much more junior. You mentioned getting vacations is important, so wouldn't a narrow body work out better for only a tiny drop in pay?
Just curious.
1. I'm misreading something. You were in the right seat for 17 years, yet you're already ~5000?
2. Looking at the pay scale, why go to the 767? It's only a bit above the 737 and Airbus, but I'm guessing you'd be much more junior. You mentioned getting vacations is important, so wouldn't a narrow body work out better for only a tiny drop in pay?
Just curious.
He was a 96 hire who said he likes the flying the 756 does out of EWR. Since the attrition is going quicker than planned, he thinks he would only miss out on one Xmas if he takes the 756 bid (a plane which he has 17 years experience in...making for an easy transition). I thought it was pretty clear.
Thanks!! Couldn't have said it better!

17 years right seat on the 756. Not 17 years total. If I take a captain bid in September, it will have been 21.5 years right seat total. Mind you my new hire class has held captain 3 times during that 21 years (the first time being way back in '98) but then lost it 2 times as well. 17 years of 756 flying made me totally spoiled as I really dislike the thought of laying over in DSM, ICT, MEX, LIB, etc plus I dislike 3 leg days and I HATE passing through ORD. (I know wrong choice of airline, right??) but EWR 756 pilots can avoid ORD fairly well. Not to mention delays and rescheduling are minimal if you're doing transcons. Honestly, I would be happy retiring doing transcons and never flying international again. That's the great thing about this job . . . something for everyone. Now let's just hope this "accelerated" movement keeps going a few years more before the music stops. Wouldn't hurt if they'd throw in 1-2% fleet growth. Keep waiting with baited breath for the "big" announcement everyone says is coming
Last edited by Sunvox; 03-08-2017 at 03:23 AM.
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