Best line I heard all day!

 

There are at least a dozen states you could live in with an income tax, and your total tax burden would be lower than IAH. Property taxes there make politicians in ORD salivate. CO would be one of them.

 

Displacements aren't good but what makes you think I'm "so upset?" Your half glass full is good but it's your failure to fully grasp what's going on around you that rubs me the wrong way. I say that with a less aggressive tone than it sounds.

 

MOP grasps what is going on around him. He's just not borderline suicidal like some...

 

Who's borderline suicidal?

 

See thats just it the 747 is going away it always has been. Thats why Im not ringing the church bells sounding alarm.

for next year we will need:

EWR 777 CA
EWR 756 CA
EWR 737 CA
EWR 320 CA

DCA 787 CA
DCA 756 CA
DCA 737 CA
DCA 320 CA

ORD 777 CA
ORD 756 CA

DEN 756 CA
DEN 737 CA
DEN320 CA

SFO 737 CA
SFO 320 CA

LAX 737 CA
LAX 320 CA

Things we won't need:

SFO 787 CA
SFO 777 CA
SFO 756 CA

LAX 777 CA
LAX 787 CA
LAX 756 CA

CLE 737 CA

DCA 777 CA

IAH 777 CA
IAH 756 CA
IAH 737 CA
IAH 320 CA

GUM 737 CA

17 categories will need more CAs by next summer
13 categories should be good to go however may need some maintenance positions added.

Only 3 WB categories (NOT including 756) will need vacancy bids before summer '18. Thats not great but it is only for a year then they will need to replace retirements.

Other than GUM, CLE and IAH all NB bases will need vacancies before summer '18. This is due to China 319's plus increased utilization and 737 max deliveries starting in spring 2018, plus increased utilization. The 756 fleet sees alot of retirements so they will need small bids just to maintain.

My prediction for a SEP bid.

25 777 CAs
50 787 CAs
30 756 CAs
100 737 CAs
50 320 CAs

MAR bid for summer flying

15 777 CAs
60 756 CAs (50 into DEN 756 CA)
30 737 CAs
10 320 CAs

Toal by summer 2018

40 777 CAs
50 787 CAs
90 756 CAs
130 737 CAs
60 320 CAs

So I fail to see the panic.

 

I meant to say that with a less aggressive tone than it sounded. You keep chanting the sky is falling like we don't see what's happening. Agree these bumps suck. Queue your usual, defensive, "when did I say the sky was falling?" response in 3, 2, 1...

 

Where's the math behind those numbers or are you just hoping? No panic from me at all. Just not going to get high off of BS 2% growth lies.

 

Well, really, when did I say the sky was falling? It's not sunny but it's not falling.

 

There is no math just a prediction. No one is displacing to EWR 777/756/737/320. So you are going to replace retirements and attrition. No one is displacing to the 787 in DCA and they want 75 CAs so they will need a bid. I also pointed out the NB issue......I assume you read what I wrote.

Its not rocket science we still have retirements, and we are getting new airplanes.......

Im sorry you are in a fleet that is currently going backwards but unfortunately you are in a base and aircraft that is going to absorb the loss of the biggest aircraft in the fleet. Doesn't mean the sun isn't shinning, there is just a level 5 over your area.