Airframes don't require hiring. Block hours do. For EWR 777 and DCA 787....there is a high probability of a bump from DCA 777. Enough to cover some of the attrition on those two BES's. 756 anywhere other than Denver? We'll see. But the block hours that are given to DEN 756 are gonna have to come out of some other domiciles pocket reducing the need for vacancies. EWR 320? Those numbers have been reduced consistently for the last couple years.

Anywhere West Coast? The trickle down from closing SFO -400 and LAX 777 thus requiring a 787 cleanup will reduce the need for vacancies on that coast.

I hope you're right though.

 

In a fleet that's going backwards? I'm a line holder in mine and the block hours will more than double. And most of the -400 guys are going 787. Don't cry for me. Not until they displace from LAX and SFO 787. I'm fine for now but in my 17 years here I've been bumped three times and I'm positive I have a better grasp on what happens with bumps of this magnitude better than you. At the very least equal to you.

 

Been at UAL for just under 3 years and moved my family to IAH but after this pretty sure I'll be applying at every other major....no future with UAL in TX....unbelievable

 

What about retirements? You seem to be missing that fact that 405 pilots are scheduled to retire between today and AUG of 2018. Thats more than all the 747 pilots combined plus some.

So Ill fall back on my well see stance. I have given you a ton of material to throw back in my face . I can't wait to see what happens.

 

Bold statement and plan. Good luck getting on with AA or SW.

Also don't forget you have a career move. And also don't forget that the IAH base is not closing

 

I'd rather not throw anything back in your face. I'd rather be wrong.

 

You're safe in IAH on the Bus. Upward movement in domicile will just be stagnated.

 

Good luck getting a TX base in 3 years with AA or SWA. If this crumbles your world you might want to just get out of aviation all together.
Says someone displaced 6 times so far in my career. I live where I want and hold what I can where I can. yes I commute but then again displacements don't affect me as bad as someone who lives local.

This too shall pass. It will be ok...

 

Never ever ever move to a base unless you really want to live there. Economy changes, fleet changes etc, I've heard these guys my whole career frightened to death by commuting and preaching "move to a base". I've had 18 years in one house, kids at great schools with lifetime friendships. Live where your happy and sit back and watch them shuffle the sh$t around....

 

Partially true. IF a $500K house in CO were equivalent to a $500K house in TX, we'd be making an apples to apples comparison using mill levies. But a $500K CO house is more like a $200K TX house.
Also, if one decides to spend much less than they can afford on a house, the income tax equation becomes a more important metric.

I live in a zero income tax state because our joint income is high enough to be deep into the Pease/PEP penalties on federal taxes. The property taxes on our very modest house is ~$2K/yr.

No, we don't live in TX because I didn't like the fact that property taxes are high there, as you rightly pointed out. Our city is in the top 30 in the US in terms of size yet the cost of living is very low for our lifestyle.

Oh my. Do you know what city calls itself the 'energy capital of the world?' They have also been known to call themselves 'the oil capital of the world.'

That particular city has been teetering on the brink of sliding into a recession for the last several years, just barely missing the two consecutive quarters of negative growth by having growth of .1-.3% a couple of quarters a year. O&D traffic has been stagnant in that city for several years.

Is the city slowly recovering? Yes. Slowly.

The planes and flying are currently being moved to where the passengers are because it makes the operation more efficient. That sucks for IAH right now but it won't be like that forever.

IAH will grow again. How many years that takes is something I'm not comfortable guessing; oil and nat gas are showing no sign of higher future prices.

If you're thinking of jumping to another airline because the lazy U is shrinking a bit in IAH, you may want to just jump to another industry because the exact same thing could happen to you at any other airline. Crap happens.