130shadow

Based on recent 2Q numbers, any wags if we are ahead or behind of last years pace of 11.9%.

82spukram

Behind. Margins are lower than last year

MasterOfPuppets

We peaked on profit sharing in 2015 (FEB 2016). It will be consistently lower for 6-7 years then start heading back up to peak around 2025 again. This industry has a 10 year cycle. However we I don't think we will see the 1980/1990/2000/2008 type crashes.

EWRflyr

It's interesting to note that UAL has not been consistent in the numbers it publishes in the earnings press releases. In 2016 there was no reference to margin for the 1st or 2nd quarters, but for the 3rd Quarter they reported a number along with the full year 2016.

It's too early to tell what this year will be in terms of PS but I would tend to agree that percentage payout will be lower.

2016
Q1: Pre-tax $494 million (no margin provided)
Q2: Pre-tax $1.4 billion (no margin provided)
Q3: Pre-tax $1.6 billion (15.7% pre-tax margin)
Q4: Pre-tax $857 million (9.5% pre-tax margin)
Full-Year 2016: Pre-tax $4.5 billion (12.2% pre-tax margin)
All these numbers are before special charges which is what is used for PS.

2017
Q1: Pre-tax $196 million (2.3% pre-tax margin)
Q2: Pre-tax $1.3 billion (13.2% pre-tax margin)
Q3: ?
Q4: ?

Note that the press release stated that the pre-tax margin for 2016 was 12.2%. The pre-tax margin used to calculate our (the pilots') PS payout for 2016 was 14.1% per the company's PS calculation information. This resulted in 11.9029% PS payout to each eligible pilot.

blockplus

Operating income(mil). Operating margin

$1,399 3mo. 2017. 14%
$1,060 3mo 2016. 11.3%



$1,677 6mo 2017. 9.1%
$1,709 6mo 2016. 9.7%

Grumble

You're saying that Q1 margin was 14%? If that's the case, how does our Q2 13.2% margin equal a 9.1% YTD?

Remember PS is before special charges, write downs etc. Near as I can tell we're on track for a similar PS as 2016.

blockplus

it was from the release... that was q2 and half yr comps

Probe

Nobody saw those crashes coming in 1979/1989/1999/2007 either. LOL.

SUX4U

You mean you didn't see 9/11 or the economy collapse of 07 coming from a mile away? Geez!

webecheck

I've heard, from a bitter double furloughee amongst others, that in 2001 he knew something was coming because he was flying half empty transcons and was getting nervous since he was a tail end Charlie new hire at United. Said United was the place to go in the late 90s/early 2000, sort of like Delta in 2014-2016 I guess as DAL expanded their SL by about 2k pilots during that time frame.