Thanks Neil...

 

Yep. Plus the plan is to grow to 18k pilots within the next 4 years so all those hired in the last 2 yrs will be 76 Capts by 2020 probably.

 

Awesome! That’s a lot of hiring!

 

There are clowns that throw bids in the snapshot justto skew it up only to change it just prior to closing ..

Bid what you want

 

Guys are saying that because of the vacancy bid that came out today with 60 777 First Officer Positions in SFO and 35 787 First Officer Positions in LAX.

given the relative juniority of SFO, It is likely the 777 slots in SFO will go quite junior. The bid will be open for 10 days and will have "snapshots" on every weekday, so come Monday we will get a glimpse at who has bids in for what.

With all the other bids out for positions senior to these two, there will be a great deal of movement on this bid (especially on the West Coast). I believe it is quite likely there will be "unfilled" SFO 756 FO slots on the bid and a bunch of unfilled 737 and 320 FO bids. So, I think the trend of SFO making up the bulk of the unfilled slots will continue. Not to say that there won't be some in other locations as well, but SFO is going to have the lion share of the New Hire slots.

1 more 777-300 coming this Fall (3 just came in the last month, but aren't on the line yet)
3 767s coming this Fall
7ish 787-10s coming over the next Winter/Spring

plus a bunch of 737s,

So should be a bunch of movement in the next 12 months

 

Take our current pilot count.

Scheduled 2018-2022 retirements comes to almost 1750, then toss in a wag of early out, medical, whatever.

They would need to average over 1500 hires a year to cover retirement AND growth.

Think it'll happen?

 

We are growing WB flying but also remember UAL has the highest number of WB aircraft as a percent of total fleet of all the majors.

I’m going off a google search so I could be wrong but I see

AMR - 67 777s/35 787s. 950 total
DAL - 18 777s/9 A350s. 871 total
UAL - 90 777s/37 787s. 748 total

DAL has a HUGE number of NB hence the crazy junior NB CAs. UAL is a substantially higher number of WBs so our WB FO goes very junior.

I purposely left out other WB like 767 and A330s because although our -400s pay top rate, others don’t and it’s a small percentage of our fleet.

 

It’s a swa vs ual thread. We’re supposed to throw out koolaid material that trumps other airlines.

I do think it’s possible to add 1500/yr, and I think in the next 12 months we’ll see a run rate pretty close to that. Sustaining it for 4-5 years, idk, and would bet against if I had to choose. It's possible capacity wise, but I don’t think we’ll have a fleet that needs that many pilots.

 

I think it has yet to be seen

Toss in that, historically we break training for summer. I know, they announced a summer class and hopefully that trend continues.

But that averages over 130 a month. If they keep the trend going of hardly any summer classes, that drives that number to probably goes to over 170-180 a month.

 

Not in DEN. No WB. You want it, you’ll have to commute. For those that don’t want to commute, every plane pays the same basically.