what is the most junior FO on the property

 

what does this mean in terms of projected furloughs?

 

The company is also flushing categories across the system at set seniority numbers to prevent pilots from lateraling to other bases. What this means is giant displacements at junior bases....

 

I was originally thinking around 2500-3000 but after this I think it’s going to be more...

 

4,525 by furlough and early retirement.

This management team isn't likely to come to the table with anything generous concerning the early retirements. I think we'll see at least that many off the bottom of the list.

 

It looks like the jr man numbers are tactically set to prevent the 'bump game'. I don't think there's any requirement for the company to make additional displacements if a category grows due to inbound displacements. For example, in the initial displacement, EWR320 Cap will be pared down to about 130, but if 30 others displace in, it will raise the number to 160. My understanding is that they may choose to displace all, some, or none in the future. This dynamic may result in fewer than the 4525. However it goes, good luck to all of us. If you understand this process please reach out to our post merger hires and help them make the best decisions!

On a different note, how the hell can they train this many displacements prior to the effective date? Isn't there some 'reasonableness test' that limits their ability to game the displacement process?

 

The company will probably train the “remaining” displaced pilots in the fall/winter. A lot of displaced pilots will never go to training as the company plans a big furlough.

 

Bryan addressed this directly in his message.

 

not really. He said something like “you should be able to figure it out”.

For those of us who don’t actually know what that means......does it mean displacements=furloughs? One to one?

 

The way it read was a 30% reduction. I’d say the bottom 30% is in trouble.


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