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Old 09-13-2020 | 01:26 PM
  #501  
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Originally Posted by CALFO
That's one of the first things I'll be looking for in the TA. I'm hoping to see something in the 1.5 to 2.0 year range. Provided there is a vaccine by year's end that is distributed throughout 2021 then getting us to 2022 should work. If it's only six months then I'm not sure I see the point in it.



Nope. I wouldn't expect this TA to be in effect beyond May of 2022. What I like about the concept of us keeping everyone on the property and in-seat, aside from the obvious of keeping the junior pilots employed, is that it allows us to take advantage of whatever opportunities may present themselves. What I don't want to see is the airline go into extreme reduction mode. That is a very difficult hole to dig out of. Legacy UAL is the perfect example, once UAL began mass furloughs and fleet reductions they never recovered to anywhere near their original size.
We fly they manage.

LUAL didn't need to dig itself out of a hole. They never intended to grow organically. Merging was always the plan. The same for DAL/NWA.
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Old 09-13-2020 | 01:37 PM
  #502  
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Originally Posted by N6279P
You’re trying to tell me potentially making around $70K to sit 9 days reserve a month sounds bad? Really?
not for a short period. But for 2-4 year? Yes!

what will you do? Find another job and you tell them “sorry I need 9 days for UA and I don’t know which 9 days until a week before the month”
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Old 09-13-2020 | 01:39 PM
  #503  
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Originally Posted by Poss
LUAL didn't need to dig itself out of a hole. They never intended to grow organically. Merging was always the plan.
^ ^ ^
This. It's hard to keep score if you don't know the game.

I am withholding all my conclusions about the AIP until I actually get to read it (radical concept) but I do know that I am both skeptical of any fast-paced changes to the UPA conducted under a deadline while simultaneously preferring a 13,000 pilot group to a 9,000 pilot group in the event of a merger.

Fingers crossed that the AIP threads the needle, and if not, then it's a NO vote.
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Old 09-13-2020 | 01:48 PM
  #504  
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Originally Posted by Poss
We fly they manage.

LUAL didn't need to dig itself out of a hole. They never intended to grow organically. Merging was always the plan. The same for DAL/NWA.
Don’t waste your time. What CALFO sees is a way to keep his cappy seat. Nothing else matters. Everybody will vote for their own self interest. The problem is, many will just see a pay cut. No cancelled furlough, no cancelled displacement.... just BOHICA. We’ll vote no, but it won’t matter. There is enough candy in this to get it passed. As the years go by and it’s obvious we’ve been had, nobody’s gonna admit they voted yes. Haha. Same as always. But they did.... in their own self interest.
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Old 09-13-2020 | 02:17 PM
  #505  
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Originally Posted by guppie
Don’t waste your time. What CALFO sees is a way to keep his cappy seat. Nothing else matters. Everybody will vote for their own self interest. The problem is, many will just see a pay cut. No cancelled furlough, no cancelled displacement.... just BOHICA. We’ll vote no, but it won’t matter. There is enough candy in this to get it passed. As the years go by and it’s obvious we’ve been had, nobody’s gonna admit they voted yes. Haha. Same as always. But they did.... in their own self interest.
Yeah, message wasn't so much for him but for others who read revisionist dribble used as a scare tactic.
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Old 09-13-2020 | 02:27 PM
  #506  
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Originally Posted by guppie
Don’t waste your time. What CALFO sees is a way to keep his cappy seat. Nothing else matters. Everybody will vote for their own self interest. The problem is, many will just see a pay cut. No cancelled furlough, no cancelled displacement.... just BOHICA. We’ll vote no, but it won’t matter. There is enough candy in this to get it passed. As the years go by and it’s obvious we’ve been had, nobody’s gonna admit they voted yes. Haha. Same as always. But they did.... in their own self interest.
Wrong. In fact, keeping my seat is something that I am not interested in. I was a solid line holder pre-covid but now I'm commuting on reserve. I would much prefer being a very senior FO with holiday/weekends off, no commute and making more money than I would with reduced hours as a reserve NB Capt.

If this TA is voted in I will continue to have a crap schedule and commute AND my mpg will reduce immediately. If the TA fails, I keep my pay-protection for at least a few more months at 73 hours and transition to a much better schedule. So short term, I'm much better off without this TA. The problem I see is what happens in the long term. I've never seen a major airline return from a massive reduction. Have you?
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Old 09-13-2020 | 02:32 PM
  #507  
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Originally Posted by Poss
We fly they manage.

LUAL didn't need to dig itself out of a hole. They never intended to grow organically. Merging was always the plan. The same for DAL/NWA.
That may have been the case in '08 but do you think it was the case in '01? United was a tear back then. I doubt that on Sept 10 management was thinking about massive reductions, bankruptcy, and a future merger. Once you start down the path of reductions it's really hard to turn that train around.
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Old 09-13-2020 | 02:48 PM
  #508  
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Originally Posted by CALFO
I doubt that on Sept 10 management was thinking about massive reductions, bankruptcy, and a future merger.
is this a joke?
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Old 09-13-2020 | 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by AxlF16
is this a joke?
What?

The events of 9/11 significantly changed the direction that United, and the industry, took. Prior to 9/11 United was growing significantly and looked unstoppable. Post 9/11 they began furloughing and retired the 727. They never recovered from that reduction. Absent the merger, they never returned to the size and scope they were prior to 9/11.
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Old 09-13-2020 | 02:58 PM
  #510  
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Originally Posted by CALFO
What?

The events of 9/11 significantly changed the direction that United, and the industry, took. Prior to 9/11 United was growing significantly and looked unstoppable. Post 9/11 they began furloughing and retired the 727. They never recovered from that reduction. Absent the merger, they never returned to the size and scope they were prior to 9/11.
before we go to far down a legacy rabbit hole, let’s just look at what Smisek did, and how many years it took new management to undo his shrink-to-profitability MO.

You definitely want to be the one leading, not the one chasing. I think that is the sentiment many of us who have been in the industry for two decades + feel
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