Food for thought...

If the MEC truly is representative of the pilot group, the final vote should be 81% FOR, 19% AGAINST.

 

i don’t know SK, but I wish him well, like I wish you well and any every other flawed human (redundant) out there

Your career success and mine, are tied to the success of the company. Like I said, I’d rather Take a VF and downscale my life than work for the UAL of 2010. That’s a personal choice we all may get to make when furloughs go through.

 

0 + 2 = 2

0 + 2 ≠ 5

That is objective. But it is your choice in the end.

 

Exactly. COVID-19 will be normalized and people will return to regular life. You can see this happening on aircraft that are full as we speak. COVID-19 is terrible but it’s severe effects only impact a very small portion of the population that possess multiple morbidly factors.

 

2 doesn't give anyone the freedom to move on. And that 2 may be absent come June of 2021 anyway. I have always been a "go ugly early and beat the rush" kind of guy. Right size the company. Reset and make money. In the meantime, dont give concessions in any capacity. Who's to say they won't create another TA in 2 years? This TA is speculative, as is everything today. If only we had some of that cash we threw away for stock buybacks? Or how about a contract that is 2 years expired? This isn't about selling out junior pilots. This is about playing by the long established rules from both sides. Would I want to work half for the next 2, 4 10 years? I could. But in my instance, I have alternatives that are better than the TA. As do many others. I would rather see a strong "United" United, than one divided by 1/3s.

 

If there is a recovery starting next year and our ability to react is slowed and opportunities are missed by having massive furloughs and a TX bottleneck, should the yes voters get bag tags that say don’t blame me, I voted yes? That is the gamble here. This isn’t about subsidizing pilots facing furlough, this is making a bet on the recovery and our ability to adapt. If you think that a vaccine or real recovery (>70% 2019 numbers) is years away, then vote no and let’s get busy furloughing over 1/3 of the list, have more displacements, and pray that we avoid bankruptcy. If you think that a vaccine will be available and travel restrictions lifted within the next year and that our numbers will be trending up, then vote yes. If the yes voters are wrong, and the numbers next summer are showing that recovery is years away, the company will announce massive furloughs, voiding the LOA, and we will be right we’re we would have been if this thing fails. If the no voters are wrong, we will have thousands on the street by then and our ability to react will be throttled by our ability to recall and train. If a vaccine isn’t found and this goes on for a couple of years, it’s all over anyway.

 

Bag takes that say ”Don’t blame me“. Oh that’s priceless. What would you like the no voters tag to say? Remember, the company furloughs, not your co-workers.

 

oh I don’t know......maybe go back a couple pages and have a look. I bet your answer will be right there!

 

yep yep yep this is exactly correct. This is an 8 month LOA at best.

 

Tags either way are silly, and yes I know who furloughs and who doesn’t. The virus and hindsight will tell us what the best course of action would have been. For now, both sides are just guessing and voting accordingly. The no voters are no more sure of the next year than the yes voters. Unlike the CBA this isn’t a permanent deal. It has a firm termination and doesn’t become amendable and in effect until superseded. If people guess that a vaccine will be available and travel restrictions lifted in the not too distant future, voting yes is probably their best choice. If people guess that the recovery is a long way off and this TA won’t accomplish anything, voting no would be their best choice. It’s a gamble. Vote for what you think is the most likely outcome. You’ve made it pretty clear that you are against, some are for, and some still undecided.

On another note, exactly how do you see the next 12-24 months playing out if this doesn’t pass? Will the company just burn cash to keep surplus pilots around to maintain flexibility, will they furlough a few, or will they furlough the full 2,850 this year and keep rolling until we have right sized the company for that level of demand? When the industry recovers, will it recover slow enough to allow us to keep pace with recalls and vacancy bids, or will demand recover faster than we can train? How would dramatically shrinking the company facilitate a possible merger, and how would we come out if it were to happen? How will this affect contract negotiations when we eventually get back to that? The list of unknowns goes on and on.