Andy

You know what the combined company's CASM will be? I wouldn't even venture a guess.
If you're comparing the past in Europe vs the future in the US, you're forgetting that there was a glut of pilots in Europe and there's a shortage of pilots in the US that appears to be getting worse.
I'd wait a bit before making any forecasts as to how this is going to turn out. There's a lot of angst ahead for the two pilot groups.

Weren't you F9 for quite a while and left? Where did you go?
Are you now regretting your decision to leave?

sleeves

Lol…ya most of the guys that have not moved on are former LUAL pilots, as your post shows.

unstabilized

This doesn’t particularly worry me in the short term. Both companies (Spirit and Frontier) have competed with UAL as independent companies prior to this merger being a thing. In the short term, there will be merger pain and inefficiencies. That being said, in the long term, when the new companies take delivery of their jets they will absolutely be a competitor in the market (as they would have been independently). However, by then UAL will be back established in the international game and business travel unless covid 22 comes out.

CASM isn’t everything. RASM-CASM=Income. Yes, F9 and NK both have really impressive CASM numbers but the fact of the matter is they also have low yields. Now, for the domestic market this may cause a bit of a shuffling effect but shouldn’t really impede United’s position in the international/business segment.

Another factor people forget about is that the open skies agreements in Europe allow lower cost of labor eastern European airlines (like Wizz Air) to compete with the higher labor cost western European airlines(like Air France) domestically. IMO that is the true reason for the failure of European legacies to compete. Here in the US we have an even playing field and labor is 50% of the cost of the airline. Imagine if all of a sudden any US carrier had to compete with Volaris domestically, the costs would be crazy different.

WaterRooster

I was actually. Left as a junior Left seat to come to UA. Sure you always look back and think if you made the right choice, but I have No regrets at all.

It also allows me a little more insight to the fact that if they adopt F9’s policies and money making ability, then yes, in the future they have the potential to be a problem. More so for Alaska, JB and AA in the short run. Either way, it’s going to shake up what’s going on in the US.

Barley

CASM is not the end-all be-all competitive advantage ULCC leaders would have you believe. Driving CASM into the ground is not how big airlines actually create and sustain their success. UAL's loyalty program alone is worth more than 4 times the combined market cap of NK & F9.

JurgenKlopp

Disagree. As an ex con can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard moaning about how wonderful our former employer was. Never mind the joys of Smallsac, Friends of Fred, and scabs leading ALPA committees.

My favorite was the guy on Sparky that was virtually in tears when fence fell. Told me he had zero doubt our careers had peaked and that we had gained nothing from the merger. The gigantic irony that we were flying back from Sydney as he spoke those words didn’t seem to matter.

Swapapotamoose

I could see AVELO and allegiant cuddling up together. Breezyboys and JB joining up as well. How will the pilot shortage affect the legacy models without regional pilots is the bigger question.

Andy

Welcome to UAL. You'll have good times and you'll have bad times in this company and business. However, I suspect mostly good times. It really is a great time to be a pilot, as there is a pretty large worldwide shortage of pilots that will get worse over the next few years, barring any major recession/pandemic/huge amount of pilots being trained. And it doesn't matter which airline you're with, it will still be a great time for a pilot.

WaterRooster

Agreed. Thank you!

Andy

I'm LUAL and it's on both sides. There are some LCAL and LUAL pilots who will be miserable over the merger until the day they die. And like it or not, this was the best course of action for our two companies. It was a good fit.

I'd be happier if smallsac hadn't closed SEA; that was a bonehead move. And it'd be nice to see us get a FL hub. Other than those two items, we've got a solid route structure.