Broncofan

it was some emails that were sent to the IE group during the summer. They started ramping up this fall again.. those were the numbers in the emails, if they changed them during actually Indoc I don’t know. But either way the numbers were far lower.

Hedley

Take this with an equally large grain of salt, but I’ve also talked to a couple of new LCA’s. Both said that the vast majority of their classes applied for the position to get their foot in the door anticipating a much better deal before TA1 came out. They also said that most in their class planned to quit and return to flying the line if the deal wasn’t up to their expectations. My understanding is also that most current LCA’s were not only upset about TA1 paying by the leg, but they were also upset that the override wasn’t higher. Still others have been LCA’s a long time and all of this movement has opened opportunities to move onto other equipment. Long story short is that the training department isn’t on solid ground with a large expansion around the corner.

My guess is that the Tumi rates would probably keep people in the position if paid by the trip, but all the LCA’s in the world won’t make people want to bid new positions. Until we get a contract that incentivizes people to upgrade, we will continue to have unfilled captain vacancies. People aren’t going to want to bid into the unknown, and the current contract just isn’t good enough to change.

TFAYD

It’s probably worse than the unknown. I think most people expected that any new contract would bring improvements. The Tumi TA fundamentally challenged my believe system.

Anyone who might have upgraded under the current contract will not touch it with a 10 foot pole.

the other factor is the very creative approach to reserve coverage and gline. I lost any confidence that in extrapolating from past numbers.

UalHvy

Van driver in London....

Spoilers Deploy

pilots constantly underestimate the ability of a multi billion dollar global corporation to find alternative ways to implement their business plan.

Zoomie

I'm sure the company has a plan B, C, D, E, and F.


Plan B could be as simple as slow roll the MAX-10. Management at United did this with our order book during the pandemic. I think we also did this with the 777 RTS. The 737 MAX was slated to come back online in early summer 2020, but we really didn't start flying them until If I remember correctly, spring 2021. I think if the overseas demand for the 777 flying was available, UAL management would have pushed harder on a faster timeline to get these AC flying.


Be prepared for "the stick" in the likely scenario that TA2 fails. We haven't seen it yet, but if you've studied history or lived through it, the stick can very easily be to start parking older 737s, older 319/320s, and CONUS 757s. It will be a "threat" at first, but when our NC doesn't budge, they might start parking. It could be a bluff like what happened at DL.


Plan C can be to push merely slow delivery of these 100+ A/C per year. It will cost $$, but there will be a cost/benefit analysis of paying full retro vs pushing back some deliveries and whichever saves more $$ might win.


While we have more leverage than we've ever had before, we still have the threat of the recession and a potential pivot or delay in the United NEXT plan. As much as we say the Next plan is managements dream, lets be honest and agree that most pilots have waited a long time for this kind of movement.


I also agree that TA1 was a dumpster fire.


I fully expect that TA2 will probably remove:


Reserve report concession (Thanks Alaska, I think this solidified it) Be great to get 1400 report like Alaska.

TK Pup Concession (was a throw away thing for Mgt anyway)

Lineholder flexibility concessions (was a dream for Mgt to get this without any huge gains for QOL for lineholders) They will have to remove 100% of these concessions for any TA to pass and I predict this is where they will focus to pass this TA.

Scope for 50 seaters weight concession (another wolf in sheep's clothing concession that management was surprised our NC agreed to)


Management will have to bump up the pay raise. More $$ is required. I won't say what I think that # will be, but it will have to be higher than Alaska in most people's minds. I'm not 100% convinced management wants this NEXT plan as much as they say they do. This whole thing might have been a ploy all along.

UALinIAH

What you’re describing is simply another extension. IMO it’s going to take gains in QOL plus pay rates to pass. Simply removing the concessions in the Tumi TA and increasing rates won’t do. Alaska set the bar higher for reserves as an example. Even Skywest got better reassignment rules in their TA.

Hedley

I believe Kirby when he says that he wants to make United the biggest and best airline out there. I also believe that he is intelligent and a numbers guy. Along with other cost such as fuel, the price of pilot labor in the industry is going to increase. I doubt that he wants to risk TA2 failing if it is nothing more than the Tumi TA with the concessions removed and better pay. I also doubt that we get the contract of our dreams and a pony, especially being that everyone has different dreams. It’s basically going to be a math problem. If he can make the expansion work with significantly higher pilot cost he will do so. If the math shows that those cost will inhibit or prevent his plans he won’t sign, hiring will adjust accordingly, and things could drag out. He’s definitely motivated to make his plans a reality, but he’s only going to move forward if the math works. We should know pretty soon where this is going.

Zoomie

I don't disagree. We haven't played this out yet. Kirby and our NC wanted to do this "without throwing a punch"

I don't believe that's achievable. It hasn't in the history of labor relations at any airline...ever. What I described is my opinion of what we will see with TA2. If SK really wants good relations with it's pilots, it will take a lot more than I described. I'm not convinced this will happen.

I think that we will see exactly what I said, and SK will see what happens. If a turndown of TA2 ends up resulting in a mass exodus from TK and the LCA ranks, then we might actually see some real leverage.

I'm already seeing newhires chomping at the bit for a job at TK and a see a lot of LCAs with hardly more than a turn or two around the sun with United. Those Jr people are unlikely to bail if TA2 fails since they won't really gain anything since many would be reserve CA in their BES or reserve FO in DEN.

Unfortunately, we are likely to have a situation where we don't see a TA that United pilots can vote Yes to unless DL and SWA do the heavy lifting. They've already gone a few rounds with management.

We have yet to schedule a bout in our ring.

I would like for our current management put their $$ where their collective "mouth" is. Do you think they will? I don't.

Turning down this TA will be the proverbial "first punch".

Mgmt will counter with threats. The threats quite likely will come right after TA2 release. We've been waiting for that WB order announcement. That could be the first shoe to drop when they tell us "if you don't vote yes, we won't make the big WB order". You will be threatened. While we are on the "same team", we are not "friends".

UALinIAH

I’m hopeful there won’t be a Tumi 2. We need to toss it in the trash and start over. The NC is still out of touch based on their latest updates. There is no longer a 2/3rd majority to make changes to the MEC policy manual so at a minimum I think no retro to the amendable date would be tough to get past the current MEC now that the new EWR reps have been voted in.

I agree with you that it’ll probably take SWAPA and DAL getting a deal first to get us across the finish line. TI and his disciples have wasted so much time avoiding conflict that we’re behind the rest of the majors now in the cycle.

I too agree it’s crazy how many of our new people are willing to go to TK and LCA training. I’m just getting old I guess. I remember LCAs refusing to do LCA work to help get us across the finish line with C2000…….