I think some people need to recalibrate what a “pay first” ask would look like. IMO opinion, a QOL focused contract would pair big work rule improvements w/ modest pay increases. 20% may sound like a big number, but it’s barely above inflation since 2019 so I’d consider it pretty modest. Anything less would be a non-starter; unless offset by some very significant work rule gains. (Ex: 10% DOS plus daily credit minimum increases to 7.5.)

I’d call a pay first contract something like 30%+ DOS. If we’re calling 2% above inflation a pay first approach, we’re already preparing for concessions.

 

wait hold up… that 5% was already paid for. We all took some pay losses to keep everyone.

 

Unfortunately UAL ALPA dug us a hole by allowing the company to give the 5% early. It's basic section 6 practice that there's no undue pay raises or LOAs allowed until a contract is ratified.

 

"The set up we have over the next three to five years is better than anything I’ve ever seen in my career... There is no carrier out there – whether its a regional carrier, an LCC or a ULCC – that can attract pilots unless [they] want to pay the going rate for pilots"

-Michael Leskinen, head of United corporate development, vice-president of investor relations and president of United Airlines Ventures.

 

I think we’re saying the same thing. LOA 5% is separate from Section 6 negotiations & should not be considered when measuring our upcoming pay adjustment against inflation.

 

From current numbers
Add for 2023/ 24/25/26

19/5/5/5% is what is coming I think
and that’s DAL plus 6% for rates

 

Technically ALPA dug a hole (& we all jumped in) when agreeing to an LOA with a 5% increase in the middle of Section 6 negotiations. That was far more regrettable than accepting said 5% early, & was destined to complicate contract negotiations from day 1.

Before the 5% was applied the company tried to bury it into TUMI 1, & some early advocates were totally buying into it. Now that the 5% is already applied, they’ll try to focus on comparing rates to other carriers rather than percentages against inflation in an attempt to blur the separation between our LOA & Section 6 raises & I assume there are those that will fall for that smoke & mirror show as well.

That’s why I didn’t personally have a problem w/ getting the 5% early. The company will try to control the narrative either way. We as a group were dumb enough to vote for that LOA, so I don’t know which we’re more likely to fall for. For my part I’ll take the 5% & be savvy enough not to take any LOA money into account when I vote on TUMI 3.

 

My point being those percentages would be really easy to evaluate without being confused by the LOA 5%. 19%DOS (if true) would be barely over inflation, so I’d consider it a serious offer- but right on the line. Personally I’d need some big work rule gains to go along with that pay offer.

 

I am confused. Do we care about the final rate in $ or some stacking of percentages? If we were at 100 and want to get 125 does it matter whether we get there 100 + 5 + 20 or 100 + 25? Specifically if the 5 comes early?

 

The trick is that between our amenable date & today, we negotiated a SEPARATE 5% through the pandemic LOA, so it’s important that bringing us in line with inflation and/or Delta rates happens OUTSIDE of that 5%. As long as you understand that, no, it doesn’t really matter how you get to the end number, but you have to understand that (using your 20+5 example) the company will try to give you 5+15 & convince you to count the 5 twice.

Ex 1: Inflation since 2019 is roughly 18%. TUMI 3 RATES are 20% higher than 2019 rates. Company claim: we’ve exceeded inflation by 2%. Reality: they’re borrowing against your 5% to make a sub-inflationary raise appear adequate.

Ex 2: TUMI 3 RATES exceed Delta by 2%. Company claim: UAL is industry leading. Reality: Section 6 raise put you 3% behind Delta.

Ex 3: TUMI 3 DOS increase is 20% putting us 6% above Delta. (Hypothetical numbers only.) This passes the sniff tests since the Section 6 raise exceeds inflation & Delta rates even without relying on the LOA 5%.