Hi,
What is the outlook for IAH widebody growth short and long term? I’ve heard that once the construction is over that IAH will grow, but not sure how. SFO can only take so many more 777s…

 

UAL management has an unhealthy love for its coastal bases. I’d love to see IAH grow as the airport expansion gets done but I don’t think the current management team in place has any desire to give up their coastal addiction.

 

Whatever growth there is
1) is unlikely to be so rapid that it overwhelms baseline seniority progression
2) will mostly get distributed to senior narrowbody folks

 

Well, there's only one current IAH 777 route that cannot adequately be covered by a 787-10 (NRT). So, assuming the company can eventually make do with a 787-9 to NRT (or hopefully HND) I suspect IAH 777 may not be around by 2030. Part of the reason I think this is because I think the company will need at least one 777 base on the east coast so long as we use 777s with lie flats for Transcons (and also for longer/cargo heavy routes from the east coast). So, when the early model 777s start getting retired towards the end of this decade I think IAH 777 would be the first or second base to go.

I am not about to guess at exactly how IAH 756 will play out, but I do think the company really likes 767s for South America routes. Any way you slice it, I think it is a safe bet that IAH 787 will grow quite a bit before the decade is over.

 

Hint hint IAH-PVG type markets are never gonna happen at UAL so if you want WB CA just commute like way to many Woodlands Residents.

 

“Unhealthy?” LOL. You mean profitable?

 

From what I remember, the big rumor prior to the pandemic was that IAH was going to consolidate long haul flying on the 787 and send the 777’s to the coast where their additional cargo capacity was needed. ORD was to be first, then IAH. The next thing they did was close the 787 base just to reopen it. The 767’s will eventually be retired and replaced with 787’s, but that’s years down the road. The long story short is that rumors are just that, their plans change, and we won’t really know anything until a vacancy is published.

 

Just saw a rumor on the 777 FB forum that IAH to NRT is going to the 787 in the spring. Doesn’t bode well for IAH 777 in the near to medium term.

 

It seems logical to me to consolidate Houston long-haul flying to the 756 and either the 777 or the 787. Doesn’t seem to me like there is enough to justify having three wide body bases there.

 

One word why that won’t happen…Cargo. They tried that last year. Showed up in the bid pack, senior pilots rejoiced, champagne all around! It lasted one day, then equipment sub to 777.