Leave DL for UA?
#121
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Joined: Jul 2022
Posts: 1,592
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From: 787 FO
It's an interesting business and the S curve is a big part of it. If a carrier is bigger in a hub or any city they get a disproportionate amount of revenue, and if their costs at equal or better they should gain market share. Another interesting bit is how network carriers compete in spoke cities. All else being equal the closer the hub and the more destinations on the other side of the hub, the better an airline should do in that spoke city.
#122
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Joined: May 2023
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Likes: 45
Also in a similar situation to all these potential UAL hopefuls. I was hired at AA a year ago and never got the call despite UAL being my first choice - but hey, I had a job and I'm grateful. AA has been good so far but I've noticed the writing on the walls at AA. We've been shrinking in popular hubs, missing earnings, and hemorrhaging money ($143M this quarter) while still having a mountain of debt. It all points to trouble ahead. That combined with the union troubles and the push to join ALPA just makes me think the next contract might have concessions - I'm probably just being extremely paranoid. Overall I just don't feel confident. Moved recently from MIA to ORD and my seniority has been stagnant since we went on a hiring freeze this summer. UAL's presence here is much larger than AA's and it's the location I'd like to make long-term. The WB flying opportunities are also much better at UAL. I kept updating my app and was lucky to secure a CJO earlier this month. Still awaiting a class date but was wondering if the "stay where you are" dogma still applies if leaving American.
The plan is to focus on remaining in Chicago or possibly the West Coast in the future. I like the WB opportunities that UAL provides and I'm not confident in AA's finances, leadership, and aircraft fleet opportunities.
The plan is to focus on remaining in Chicago or possibly the West Coast in the future. I like the WB opportunities that UAL provides and I'm not confident in AA's finances, leadership, and aircraft fleet opportunities.
#123
The S-curve effect is a phenomenon in airline competition that describes how a dominant airline can attract more passengers than expected with additional frequency. This is because service-oriented passengers, like business travelers, tend to favor airlines with a more frequent flight schedule.
The S-curve effect can be measured by using frequency share on the x-axis, which is the driver of preference for time-sensitive travelers. The effect can be seen at both the airport and route level.
Airlines can use the S-curve effect to their advantage by building dominant positions at airports and on routes. For example, Delta has a strong S-curve position in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, and Seattle. In these markets, Delta has a far larger scope and depth of service than its competitors, which means that business travelers tend to choose Delta almost exclusively.
https://www.m2p.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/S-Kurve_RGB-400x400-1.png
The S-curve effect can be measured by using frequency share on the x-axis, which is the driver of preference for time-sensitive travelers. The effect can be seen at both the airport and route level.
Airlines can use the S-curve effect to their advantage by building dominant positions at airports and on routes. For example, Delta has a strong S-curve position in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, and Seattle. In these markets, Delta has a far larger scope and depth of service than its competitors, which means that business travelers tend to choose Delta almost exclusively.
https://www.m2p.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/S-Kurve_RGB-400x400-1.png
But thir dominance in those 4 hubs allows them have great pricing power, great shielding from competitors from being able to set up shop, therefore able to command great yields and drive impressive margins which carries their NYC, SEA, LAX hubs.
#124
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Joined: Jul 2022
Posts: 1,592
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From: 787 FO
I don't think the battle for ORD has much to do with headquarters locations and costs are only half the equation. The difference between revenue and cost is what counts. ORD is expensive, but revenues more than make up for it as with most of UA hubs. Until Kirby and his network team arrived UA squandered their S-curve advantage in their hubs much to the benefit of the competition. Not the case any longer.
#125
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Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 588
Likes: 24
If I lived in ORD I would probably leave for UAL but AA will be fine long term. AA made over $2 billion in free cash flow last quarter, they aren't losing money. After paying down an extra $15 billion in debt by the end of 2025 they will be in a much better position going forward but ORD at AA will never be as big as it is for UAL.
#126
Last edited by RippinClapBombs; 10-31-2024 at 11:53 AM.
#129
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Joined: Oct 2021
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Likes: 8
I know this thread is about leaving Delta to UAL, but as a Southwest guy who posted earlier in this, I can’t help but bring the discussion back up. More so is it worth coming to United solely to fly WB?
Both Southwest and United work for my lifestyle. I have one kid and an ex-wife, so I have some mobility, but still want time off for my kid. I could drive to work for both airlines. I’m on year 3 at SWA and making about 20k a month minimum with a great schedule. I know I’ll be taking a pay cut if I jump to United for a while. I’m 30 so I have time, but is it worth the financial hit and seniority loss to go to United to have the options to fly WB some day? Or is WB flying not as glorious if I already have the quality of life and WB FO equivalent pay that I’m getting at SWA?
As of now I’m still waiting for a class date with UAL. It sounds like potentially the spring is when things will start ramping up again. I hit year 4 with SWA in May so I’m hoping UAL can get me in before this becomes an even harder decision. Although, I can see myself happy at either airline.
Both Southwest and United work for my lifestyle. I have one kid and an ex-wife, so I have some mobility, but still want time off for my kid. I could drive to work for both airlines. I’m on year 3 at SWA and making about 20k a month minimum with a great schedule. I know I’ll be taking a pay cut if I jump to United for a while. I’m 30 so I have time, but is it worth the financial hit and seniority loss to go to United to have the options to fly WB some day? Or is WB flying not as glorious if I already have the quality of life and WB FO equivalent pay that I’m getting at SWA?
As of now I’m still waiting for a class date with UAL. It sounds like potentially the spring is when things will start ramping up again. I hit year 4 with SWA in May so I’m hoping UAL can get me in before this becomes an even harder decision. Although, I can see myself happy at either airline.
Last edited by Fly4FunAA; 11-14-2024 at 08:36 PM.
#130
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Joined: May 2015
Posts: 1,200
Likes: 33
From: 777 CA
I know this thread is about leaving Delta to UAL, but as a Southwest guy who posted earlier in this, I can’t help but bring the discussion back up. More so is it worth coming to United solely to fly WB?
Both Southwest and United work for my lifestyle. I have one kid and an ex-wife, so I have some mobility, but still want time off for my kid. I could drive to work for both airlines. I’m on year 3 at SWA and making about 20k a month minimum with a great schedule. I know I’ll be taking a pay cut if I jump to United for a while. I’m 30 so I have time, but is it worth the financial hit and seniority loss to go to United to have the options to fly WB some day? Or is WB flying not as glorious if I already have the quality of life and WB FO equivalent pay that I’m getting at SWA?
As of now I’m still waiting for a class date with UAL. It sounds like potentially the spring is when things will start ramping up again. I hit year 4 with SWA in May so I’m hoping UAL can get me in before this becomes an even harder decision. Although, I can see myself happy at either airline.
Both Southwest and United work for my lifestyle. I have one kid and an ex-wife, so I have some mobility, but still want time off for my kid. I could drive to work for both airlines. I’m on year 3 at SWA and making about 20k a month minimum with a great schedule. I know I’ll be taking a pay cut if I jump to United for a while. I’m 30 so I have time, but is it worth the financial hit and seniority loss to go to United to have the options to fly WB some day? Or is WB flying not as glorious if I already have the quality of life and WB FO equivalent pay that I’m getting at SWA?
As of now I’m still waiting for a class date with UAL. It sounds like potentially the spring is when things will start ramping up again. I hit year 4 with SWA in May so I’m hoping UAL can get me in before this becomes an even harder decision. Although, I can see myself happy at either airline.
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what a nightmare seriously 
