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Old 10-31-2024 | 07:40 AM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by md11pilot11
I’ve never seen this, that is extremely interesting. Maybe I should have gotten that degree in aviation management…
It's an interesting business and the S curve is a big part of it. If a carrier is bigger in a hub or any city they get a disproportionate amount of revenue, and if their costs at equal or better they should gain market share. Another interesting bit is how network carriers compete in spoke cities. All else being equal the closer the hub and the more destinations on the other side of the hub, the better an airline should do in that spoke city.
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Old 10-31-2024 | 09:20 AM
  #122  
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Originally Posted by Bob Squad
Also in a similar situation to all these potential UAL hopefuls. I was hired at AA a year ago and never got the call despite UAL being my first choice - but hey, I had a job and I'm grateful. AA has been good so far but I've noticed the writing on the walls at AA. We've been shrinking in popular hubs, missing earnings, and hemorrhaging money ($143M this quarter) while still having a mountain of debt. It all points to trouble ahead. That combined with the union troubles and the push to join ALPA just makes me think the next contract might have concessions - I'm probably just being extremely paranoid. Overall I just don't feel confident. Moved recently from MIA to ORD and my seniority has been stagnant since we went on a hiring freeze this summer. UAL's presence here is much larger than AA's and it's the location I'd like to make long-term. The WB flying opportunities are also much better at UAL. I kept updating my app and was lucky to secure a CJO earlier this month. Still awaiting a class date but was wondering if the "stay where you are" dogma still applies if leaving American.

The plan is to focus on remaining in Chicago or possibly the West Coast in the future. I like the WB opportunities that UAL provides and I'm not confident in AA's finances, leadership, and aircraft fleet opportunities.
The writing is far from on the wall. That being said, people who want ORD should go to United. United is headquartered in Chicago so kind of unreasonable to expect AA to have as much skin in the game in terms of winning market share, especially with high costs.
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Old 10-31-2024 | 09:51 AM
  #123  
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Originally Posted by jerryleber
The S-curve effect is a phenomenon in airline competition that describes how a dominant airline can attract more passengers than expected with additional frequency. This is because service-oriented passengers, like business travelers, tend to favor airlines with a more frequent flight schedule.

The S-curve effect can be measured by using frequency share on the x-axis, which is the driver of preference for time-sensitive travelers. The effect can be seen at both the airport and route level.

Airlines can use the S-curve effect to their advantage by building dominant positions at airports and on routes. For example, Delta has a strong S-curve position in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, and Seattle. In these markets, Delta has a far larger scope and depth of service than its competitors, which means that business travelers tend to choose Delta almost exclusively.

https://www.m2p.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/S-Kurve_RGB-400x400-1.png
Using your S-curve point, This is what DL has accomplished with ATL, MSP, DTW, SLC. I wouldn't put NYC on that list as JetBlue has a solid piece of that Market as does United on the other side with EWR.... What United has going with NYC/EWR is that they have a single hub at one NYC airport (EWR) that captures O/D and connecting traffic with the costs of a single airport. Where's as DL has to split their NYC hub into different airports (LGA and JFK) which holds them back slightly in NYC.

But thir dominance in those 4 hubs allows them have great pricing power, great shielding from competitors from being able to set up shop, therefore able to command great yields and drive impressive margins which carries their NYC, SEA, LAX hubs.
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Old 10-31-2024 | 10:01 AM
  #124  
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Originally Posted by CRJCapitan
United is headquartered in Chicago so kind of unreasonable to expect AA to have as much skin in the game in terms of winning market share, especially with high costs.
I don't think the battle for ORD has much to do with headquarters locations and costs are only half the equation. The difference between revenue and cost is what counts. ORD is expensive, but revenues more than make up for it as with most of UA hubs. Until Kirby and his network team arrived UA squandered their S-curve advantage in their hubs much to the benefit of the competition. Not the case any longer.
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Old 10-31-2024 | 11:13 AM
  #125  
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If I lived in ORD I would probably leave for UAL but AA will be fine long term. AA made over $2 billion in free cash flow last quarter, they aren't losing money. After paying down an extra $15 billion in debt by the end of 2025 they will be in a much better position going forward but ORD at AA will never be as big as it is for UAL.
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Old 10-31-2024 | 11:28 AM
  #126  
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Originally Posted by ImSoSuss
The price of ORD is too much for the penny pinchers in Skyview 6 and they wrongly decided to stuff too much through CLT and DFW.
No, they stuff too many f*cking RJ’s through those hubs creating massive amounts of added variable costs. Nothing like being in CLT number 17 in line for Takeoff on 36C with 11 RJ’s in front of you, 3 RJ’s on final approach, and 5 RJ’s on the other side waiting to cross. Or how about number 15 in line on Taxiway M with 10 RJ’s in front of you waiting for ramp congestion to be sorted out. The associated heavy costs with those unnecessary delays include fuel, missed connections, etc. AA finally has the capital to invest in it’s infrastructure— it’s hubs will look much different in the not too distant future but the 50 seat RJ’s gotta go.

Last edited by RippinClapBombs; 10-31-2024 at 11:53 AM.
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Old 10-31-2024 | 01:25 PM
  #127  
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I bid avoid CLT for a reason what a nightmare seriously
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Old 11-01-2024 | 05:58 PM
  #128  
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Originally Posted by Request20Right
You’ve been at SWA for 10 years?
Starting my tenth to be accurate.
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Old 11-14-2024 | 08:22 PM
  #129  
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I know this thread is about leaving Delta to UAL, but as a Southwest guy who posted earlier in this, I can’t help but bring the discussion back up. More so is it worth coming to United solely to fly WB?

Both Southwest and United work for my lifestyle. I have one kid and an ex-wife, so I have some mobility, but still want time off for my kid. I could drive to work for both airlines. I’m on year 3 at SWA and making about 20k a month minimum with a great schedule. I know I’ll be taking a pay cut if I jump to United for a while. I’m 30 so I have time, but is it worth the financial hit and seniority loss to go to United to have the options to fly WB some day? Or is WB flying not as glorious if I already have the quality of life and WB FO equivalent pay that I’m getting at SWA?

As of now I’m still waiting for a class date with UAL. It sounds like potentially the spring is when things will start ramping up again. I hit year 4 with SWA in May so I’m hoping UAL can get me in before this becomes an even harder decision. Although, I can see myself happy at either airline.

Last edited by Fly4FunAA; 11-14-2024 at 08:36 PM.
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Old 11-14-2024 | 08:56 PM
  #130  
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Originally Posted by Fly4FunAA
I know this thread is about leaving Delta to UAL, but as a Southwest guy who posted earlier in this, I can’t help but bring the discussion back up. More so is it worth coming to United solely to fly WB?

Both Southwest and United work for my lifestyle. I have one kid and an ex-wife, so I have some mobility, but still want time off for my kid. I could drive to work for both airlines. I’m on year 3 at SWA and making about 20k a month minimum with a great schedule. I know I’ll be taking a pay cut if I jump to United for a while. I’m 30 so I have time, but is it worth the financial hit and seniority loss to go to United to have the options to fly WB some day? Or is WB flying not as glorious if I already have the quality of life and WB FO equivalent pay that I’m getting at SWA?

As of now I’m still waiting for a class date with UAL. It sounds like potentially the spring is when things will start ramping up again. I hit year 4 with SWA in May so I’m hoping UAL can get me in before this becomes an even harder decision. Although, I can see myself happy at either airline.
You never mentioned your age or where you're living. Age probably plays a part in the decision. As does location. The flying in IAH for example isn't that great on the WB but the coastal stuff is sweet. (Even DEN 787 which is crazy senior but pretty damn good) IMHO if you're under 45ish it's definitely worth the change if you're considering WB flying. I've said it in other threads but if you can nap in a bunk there's something to be said about WB flying and days off. You won't be holding it short term but in time you'll be able to hold 28 hr 3 day trips (9 work days/month) and of that 40% in the rack. It doesn't work for everyone. Some people can't sleep on a plane. I was one of those when I was younger. But, if you can it's the best flying out there. And the pay paycheck is pretty decent lol.
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