I would double check your accuracy on this statement. The great circle route does put you into Russian airspace and the Northern pacific winds often push the optimum route even further north and deeper into Russia.

 

Out of SFO UAL is able to avoid Russia. It may not be the most efficient route though.

 

You can always avoid Russian airspace. The problem is when your competitors are overflying Russia. You can't compete on price or time.

 

I would love the US to stipulate carriers flying in must adhere to non-Russian airspace. Not sure if actually possible.

 

IAH-SYD, which we currently fly, is 13,834 km.

If we flew SFO-BKK via flying overheard HKG (which we currently do easily) its 12,836.

That's 1,000 km shorter. Even if we need to go further south and fly over NRT its still only 12,896 km.

Totally doable and well outside Russian airspace as is all of the Pacific flying we are currently doing including ICN, PVG and PEK.

 

You can as I posted always take a longer route. It's hurts you from a competitive standpoint however if the competition is going the shorter route. You original statement however was different.

"There is no Russian overflight from SFO/LAX to BKK. Not even close. The entire route would be over the pacific until coasting in over Vietnam"

The shortest and most efficient route is over Russia. Not only do you increase the mileage going south you put yourself right into the Pacific Jet Stream.

 

Most middle eastern countries ban USMIL aircraft from departing, flying over or landing in their country if they also touched Israeli airspace, so I don't see why that would be an issue for us. But if you look at Trump's history and since his recent pick as Director of National Intelligence has spread Russian talking points on many occasions, it's a very safe bet we're going to abandon Ukraine, adopt Russian-friendly policies which could lead to airspace being opened back up, so I think it's a moot point.

 

You're splitting hairs and being ridiculous.

First of all there are no competitors. No airline from any country flies directly from the US to Bangkok. We'd be the only one. Everyone else has to connect somewhere which is FAR less efficient.

Also flying SFO-BKK overflying NRT vs SFO-BKK great circle adds a whopping 80 miles. We could even fly SFO-ICN-BKK and its adds FIVE MILES to the route. Somehow we fly SFO-ICN already without flying into Russia.

EVERY route we fly to Asia from ORD, EWR, IAD would fly over Russian airspace in a great circle route. They also have the same issue with the jetstream as does every flight off the west coast to Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai. They can't just go further north because of Russia so we all go firther south and somhow we make it. EWR-NRT great circle is FAR more into Russia than SFO-BKK but somehow we fly it, make money, and our "competitors" don't have a massive advantage because they can fly over Russia.

You're also not including Russian overfly fees and a fee for every radio communication made in Russian airspace. Probably cheaper to avoid Russia anyway.

You're analysis that the 80 mile difference gives our competitors, which there are none, a massive cost edge is ridiclous.

 

The entire premise of APC.

 

It ends up be a 1 to 2 hour difference in the winter.