Barry claps back at Kirby
09-24-2025 | 10:46 AM
#42
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The ULCC model is over, and the Big Three have seen it, with even Southwest showing signs of the shift. Gone are the days of Song, Metro, and Ted. The Big Three now simply need to saturate markets with "Basic Economy" seats to undercut Spirit and Frontier, whose strategy was to target the major hubs and take the cheaper flyers. Airlines like Alaska, Hawaiian, and JetBlue also see this, which explains why Alaska and Hawaiian are expanding internationally, and JetBlue is struggling to remain competitive. I don't believe Frontier will be much better off even without Spirit. We are finally seeing the self-correction of deregulation, though it's taken 40 years.
Yep, but DL and united are exposed to the credit card revenue. When the middle class gets laid off the next 6-9 months.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
09-24-2025 | 11:14 AM
#43
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Joined: Jul 2024
Posts: 23
Likes: 4
Yep, but DL and united are exposed to the credit card revenue. When the middle class gets laid off the next 6-9 months.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
09-25-2025 | 03:49 AM
#44
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Joined: Aug 2024
Posts: 827
Likes: 237
Yep, but DL and united are exposed to the credit card revenue. When the middle class gets laid off the next 6-9 months.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
09-28-2025 | 10:10 AM
#45
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Joined: May 2023
Posts: 660
Likes: 45
Yep, but DL and united are exposed to the credit card revenue. When the middle class gets laid off the next 6-9 months.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
Pipeman?...
09-28-2025 | 02:47 PM
#46
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Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 872
Likes: 34
Nope he is like wallstreetbets mixed with one of our regular trolls. He isn’t wrong but if you could predict the next downturn to even within a month of the actual date you would have a Sikorsky taking you to work every day. The devaluation of the dollar is going to continue and we as a country are making bold, brash moves with very little forethought into the long game. To call this uncharted territory is a bit of an understatement but these bold, brash moves generally have poor outcomes.
09-29-2025 | 12:04 AM
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,508
Likes: 109
Yep, but DL and united are exposed to the credit card revenue. When the middle class gets laid off the next 6-9 months.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
AA in chapter 11, sw will replace it in the big 3.
Jb, Alaska, Frontier are likely toast as is. We'll see how the structure their future. Expect someone to merge pieces out of bankruptcy.
Bottom line 20%, too many seats flying around and you'll see everyone shrink to profitability.
Lots of furloughs and paycuts. Pilot shortage is over and the race to the bottom is heating up.
Good luck to everyone.
This is gonna be a bloodbath.
During the 2007-8 rescission what happened to overall consumer credit card debt?
Several are profitable, consistently, and will keep growing.
Your arguments are based in bias not fact.
09-30-2025 | 07:03 AM
#48
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Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 180
Likes: 8
Nope he is like wallstreetbets mixed with one of our regular trolls. He isn’t wrong but if you could predict the next downturn to even within a month of the actual date you would have a Sikorsky taking you to work every day. The devaluation of the dollar is going to continue and we as a country are making bold, brash moves with very little forethought into the long game. To call this uncharted territory is a bit of an understatement but these bold, brash moves generally have poor outcomes.
Nothing new about this. This is how the monetary system works and has worked our whole lives. The dollar is stronger than pre covid. People are betting on the wrong things, and predictably so.
That's where the phrase "this time isn't different" comes from.
Wsb is a joke.
This has been known for decades. Max boomer retirement is 2025, and they are gonna get crushed. It's the snake digesting the debt bubble. Covid made it MUCH worse. We would have been in recession in 2020, but the money bazooka and fomo bought me a cheap used plane. 🤷
This is a Global problem. Our debt is everyone else's problem too.
The market is gonna skyrocket and suck in... The suckers, and then implode around February-May for structural reasons.
Homes, autos, lack of retirement income, unemployment, gig economy, tariffs, price inflation.
It's not one thing. It's literally everything.
Passive investing is the biggest bubble outside of China. Once liquidity runs out, expect a 50 - 80% crash.
People are investing trillions in speculative assets and ponzi schemes.
I called the covid bottom the same way.
Be careful when gold hits 44-4600
Cheers
09-30-2025 | 07:31 AM
#49
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Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 180
Likes: 8
Everything I'm saying is verifiable. Go look yourself
The economy is reaccelerating into the crash. Markets crash up first as the dollar slides and people fomo into speculative assets. That's what you're witnessing after they got the tariff wrong.
Tariffs are deflationary.
Profitable now. The consumer is going to crushed as autos, homes crash, and the stock market with it when layoffs tick higher etc. The gig economy distorts everything. Gdp growth from Ai does very little for the bottom 80%. When the top 20% get hit early next year. DL and UA are in for the most hurt due to their passenger base.
Yes they are profitable and will shrink to remain profitable. Take at least 3 years for the economy to begin to recover.
How each cuts pay/rules/staffing is airline specific. AA is certainly bankrupt. UA, DL, and SW will grind out the weaker ones and do the best. Not doom, but gonna be a wild ride.
Cheers.
09-30-2025 | 07:33 AM
#50
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Posts: 180
Likes: 8
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