Barry claps back at Kirby
09-30-2025 | 11:13 AM
#61
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 180
Likes: 8
You’re right that history rhymes, but it doesn’t repeat on cue. Every cycle has its own drivers. Comparing today’s setup to 1929 or the GFC ignores structural differences: massive liquidity, AI-led productivity gains, reshoring of supply chains, and a U.S. economy that keeps surprising to the upside.
Calling crypto a Ponzi is lazy. Unlike 2000-era dot-coms with no revenue, blockchain infrastructure is being integrated into payments, custody, and settlement. The players aren’t just “retail exit liquidity”—BlackRock, Fidelity, and sovereign wealth funds don’t buy “dog****” to get dumped on.
As for “this time isn’t different”—it actually is. Every major bull run looked unsustainable in the moment. People said the same at S&P 1,500, at 3,000, and at 4,500. Now they’ll say it again at 6,000 on the way to 8,000.
The real risk isn’t that markets collapse tomorrow. The real risk is being too bearish and missing the gains while waiting for the crash that never comes.
When the economy eventually corrects, one thing is certain: United, Delta, and the rest will do what they must to capitalize on it. Wishing you the best on your future returns—cheers!
Calling crypto a Ponzi is lazy. Unlike 2000-era dot-coms with no revenue, blockchain infrastructure is being integrated into payments, custody, and settlement. The players aren’t just “retail exit liquidity”—BlackRock, Fidelity, and sovereign wealth funds don’t buy “dog****” to get dumped on.
As for “this time isn’t different”—it actually is. Every major bull run looked unsustainable in the moment. People said the same at S&P 1,500, at 3,000, and at 4,500. Now they’ll say it again at 6,000 on the way to 8,000.
The real risk isn’t that markets collapse tomorrow. The real risk is being too bearish and missing the gains while waiting for the crash that never comes.
When the economy eventually corrects, one thing is certain: United, Delta, and the rest will do what they must to capitalize on it. Wishing you the best on your future returns—cheers!
It's about debt and growth. Once houses and cars crash we'll be in deflation. Ai has no gains. It's a money incinerator. This is kinda my point. Yes the catalyst is different, but it's still the banking system not loaning money to broke people.
If you actually go look you'll see it's all artificial and based on the easy money that's over.
Reshoring has been going on since 2018 and will take a decade.
The economy hasn't suprised anyone who's been watching it...
That's my point people are expecting doom and will fomo into the crash after the next correction because they believe what you're saying.
Block chain makes no money and is literally free to make your own.
It's a hash signed spreadsheet built on the same liquidity pump that's fueling everything else.
I own plenty. It's all a scam. Tokenization of securities will happen in a decade or so, but that's all internal.
Visa and mastercard handle more settlements and faster individually. No business wants to hold monopoly money that fluctuates. No customer wants to deal with returns. I have a chase reserve for a reason. Customer service and no liability
Banks don't own crypto. They custody it for suckers, but they all think it's a scam too. Mstr is a levered ponzi by a noted con man and people think he's God...
That was a great buy in 2020 when he announced his plan. Pure insanity.
The real world runs on debt I'm afraid, and crypto is like a gambling token at a casino. If the casino goes bust. You're boned. Collateralized Stablecoins notwithstanding.
Crypto is used literally nowhere except for a few libertarians. El Salvador didn't even use it it was all propaganda.
This is just like nfts, quantum computing, metaverse, beanie babies etc. All pump and dump. The real value comes later with the ashes.
In fact the railroad bubbles popped from wildcat banking and unregulated securities if you like the history Rhymes idea.
I've been calling for a top near 7000- 8000 for five years because I watched em dump the money in.
That's how I paid for my jet.
You're agreeing with me, but don't like I'm telling you it's ending in approx 6ish months. I get it. Not trying to be a dick.
No. The real risk is it crashes tomorrow. Black swan aside, much higher, and right when people feel amazing 80% and the wealth effect is over. We're 5 million jobs below our pre covid trend. 🤷
To you as well. I'm not calling for the end of the world, but people will be crushed.
End of the debt cycle. The alternative is worse..
Trust me.
Last edited by Washout; 09-30-2025 at 11:26 AM.
09-30-2025 | 11:39 AM
#62
On Reserve
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 25
Likes: 3
I'm afraid that's incorrect.
It's about debt and growth. Once houses and cars crash we'll be in deflation. Ai has no gains. It's a money incinerator. This is kinda my point. Yes the catalyst is different, but it's still the banking system not loaning money to broke people.
If you actually go look you'll see it's all artificial and based on the easy money that's over.
Reshoring has been going on since 2018 and will take a decade.
The economy hasn't suprised anyone who's been watching it...
That's my point people are expecting doom and will fomo into the crash after the next correction because they believe what you're saying.
Block chain makes no money and is literally free to make your own.
It's a hash signed spreadsheet built on the same liquidity pump that's fueling everything else.
I own plenty. It's all a scam. Tokenization of securities will happen in a decade or so, but that's all internal.
Visa and mastercard handle more settlements and faster individually. No business wants to hold monopoly money that fluctuates. No customer wants to deal with returns. I have a chase reserve for a reason. Customer service and no liability
Banks don't own crypto. They custody it for suckers, but they all think it's a scam too. Mstr is a levered ponzi by a noted con man and people think he's God...
That was a great buy in 2020 when he announced his plan. Pure insanity.
The real world runs on debt I'm afraid, and crypto is like a gambling token at a casino. If the casino goes bust. You're boned. Collateralized Stablecoins notwithstanding.
Crypto is used literally nowhere except for a few libertarians. El Salvador didn't even use it it was all propaganda.
This is just like nfts, quantum computing, metaverse, beanie babies etc. All pump and dump. The real value comes later with the ashes.
In fact the railroad bubbles popped from wildcat banking and unregulated securities if you like the history Rhymes idea.
I've been calling for a top near 7000- 8000 for five years because I watched em dump the money in.
That's how I paid for my jet.
You're agreeing with me, but don't like I'm telling you it's ending in approx 6ish months. I get it. Not trying to be a dick.
No. The real risk is it crashes tomorrow. Black swan aside, much higher, and right when people feel amazing 80% and the wealth effect is over. We're 5 million jobs below our pre covid trend. 🤷
To you as well. I'm not calling for the end of the world, but people will be crushed.
End of the debt cycle. The alternative is worse..
Trust me.
It's about debt and growth. Once houses and cars crash we'll be in deflation. Ai has no gains. It's a money incinerator. This is kinda my point. Yes the catalyst is different, but it's still the banking system not loaning money to broke people.
If you actually go look you'll see it's all artificial and based on the easy money that's over.
Reshoring has been going on since 2018 and will take a decade.
The economy hasn't suprised anyone who's been watching it...
That's my point people are expecting doom and will fomo into the crash after the next correction because they believe what you're saying.
Block chain makes no money and is literally free to make your own.
It's a hash signed spreadsheet built on the same liquidity pump that's fueling everything else.
I own plenty. It's all a scam. Tokenization of securities will happen in a decade or so, but that's all internal.
Visa and mastercard handle more settlements and faster individually. No business wants to hold monopoly money that fluctuates. No customer wants to deal with returns. I have a chase reserve for a reason. Customer service and no liability
Banks don't own crypto. They custody it for suckers, but they all think it's a scam too. Mstr is a levered ponzi by a noted con man and people think he's God...
That was a great buy in 2020 when he announced his plan. Pure insanity.
The real world runs on debt I'm afraid, and crypto is like a gambling token at a casino. If the casino goes bust. You're boned. Collateralized Stablecoins notwithstanding.
Crypto is used literally nowhere except for a few libertarians. El Salvador didn't even use it it was all propaganda.
This is just like nfts, quantum computing, metaverse, beanie babies etc. All pump and dump. The real value comes later with the ashes.
In fact the railroad bubbles popped from wildcat banking and unregulated securities if you like the history Rhymes idea.
I've been calling for a top near 7000- 8000 for five years because I watched em dump the money in.
That's how I paid for my jet.
You're agreeing with me, but don't like I'm telling you it's ending in approx 6ish months. I get it. Not trying to be a dick.
No. The real risk is it crashes tomorrow. Black swan aside, much higher, and right when people feel amazing 80% and the wealth effect is over. We're 5 million jobs below our pre covid trend. 🤷
To you as well. I'm not calling for the end of the world, but people will be crushed.
End of the debt cycle. The alternative is worse..
Trust me.
Crypto is messy, I’ll give you that. But comparing it to beanie babies skips over the infrastructure being built—settlements, tokenization, cross-border transfers—things that aren’t sexy but will eventually cut costs and improve efficiency. Visa and Mastercard won’t disappear, but they may well integrate blockchain rails the same way they integrated the internet.
On the macro side, I agree the cycle’s maturing and a correction is inevitable, but a hard deflationary spiral ignores the trillions in fiscal spending and industrial policy that didn’t exist in previous cycles. Reshoring, energy buildout, and AI capex aren’t instant growth levers, but they’re not irrelevant either.
So yes, maybe 6–12 months brings volatility. Maybe it’s ugly. But if the bet is “we crash 80% and nothing new has lasting value,” history hasn’t borne that out. The ashes usually become the foundation.
Thanks for the discussion, now I’m off to dreaming of butterflies and unicorns. Cheers!
09-30-2025 | 12:04 PM
#65
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 180
Likes: 8
I hear you, but I think you’re overstating the “everything is fake, it’s all going to zero” case. Yes, debt cycles matter, and yes, when credit tightens you get pain. But innovation and productivity gains do eventually change the slope of the curve—whether it was railroads, the internet, or AI. Each had a speculative phase, but dismissing them entirely as “scams” overlooks how real adoption quietly compounds beneath the noise.
Crypto is messy, I’ll give you that. But comparing it to beanie babies skips over the infrastructure being built—settlements, tokenization, cross-border transfers—things that aren’t sexy but will eventually cut costs and improve efficiency. Visa and Mastercard won’t disappear, but they may well integrate blockchain rails the same way they integrated the internet.
On the macro side, I agree the cycle’s maturing and a correction is inevitable, but a hard deflationary spiral ignores the trillions in fiscal spending and industrial policy that didn’t exist in previous cycles. Reshoring, energy buildout, and AI capex aren’t instant growth levers, but they’re not irrelevant either.
So yes, maybe 6–12 months brings volatility. Maybe it’s ugly. But if the bet is “we crash 80% and nothing new has lasting value,” history hasn’t borne that out. The ashes usually become the foundation.
Thanks for the discussion, now I’m off to dreaming of butterflies and unicorns. Cheers!
Crypto is messy, I’ll give you that. But comparing it to beanie babies skips over the infrastructure being built—settlements, tokenization, cross-border transfers—things that aren’t sexy but will eventually cut costs and improve efficiency. Visa and Mastercard won’t disappear, but they may well integrate blockchain rails the same way they integrated the internet.
On the macro side, I agree the cycle’s maturing and a correction is inevitable, but a hard deflationary spiral ignores the trillions in fiscal spending and industrial policy that didn’t exist in previous cycles. Reshoring, energy buildout, and AI capex aren’t instant growth levers, but they’re not irrelevant either.
So yes, maybe 6–12 months brings volatility. Maybe it’s ugly. But if the bet is “we crash 80% and nothing new has lasting value,” history hasn’t borne that out. The ashes usually become the foundation.
Thanks for the discussion, now I’m off to dreaming of butterflies and unicorns. Cheers!
Credit rates this high are equivalent to 16% in 1981. I don't think you understand the amount of debt riding on rehypothicated debt.
Russia has high gdp. Bombs don't create growth, raising prices increases gdp on an individual basis, but hurts economies of scale.
The feedback loops are now working backwards.
But those things need to make money for growth. They are burning billions a month and Agi isn't coming tomorrow.
There is no crypto adoption. It's an illiquid ponzi scheme that is firewalled from the banking system for a reason. In fact the more stablecoins created, the more treasuries required entrenching the dollar further. Follow the money. It's a scam.
Tokenization is the only thing being persued and it's a decade away.
Blockchain is slow and costly. We have cheaper, faster and safer databases in use. Just wait for nat gas to rip higher as shale gas comes offline due to low oil prices. Then electricity will skyrocket and bankrupt the miners.
Fednow, zelle, swiftgpi, UK fast pay, etc. All these already exist and dwarf crypto. There is no benefit. It's a sales job. Crypto isn't credit. I get points/cashback etc. Crypto doesn't do that and if the technology is important why did everyone skip it for a better alternative. This isn't new. 🤷
Umm. It's monetary deflation. We've been below our 5.25% monetary growth rate since housing peaked in 2022... That's why it peaked. It's not a mystery.
The bubble blew in 2020. The temporary money flood is over. Now you're seeing the world go broke and people flood into "hedges because they fear stagflation (which is currently present), but afterwards, deflation.
This is the coffin corner. People are terrified of overspeeding, but we're gonna stall.
Yes, that's exactly what the tariffs are designed to do. Blow up the bubbles and refinance the debt at zero percent. We get to bail out our allies and move supply chains. We did this after WW2 except in reverse. This is a reverse Marshall plan essentially.
Cheers
09-30-2025 | 12:10 PM
#66
Thread Starter
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2024
Posts: 825
Likes: 236
It's not going to "zero. It's mean reverting. There is no growth. The rest of the world is already in deflation. Especially China. 5 years of money printing 1600%+ debt to gdp.
Credit rates this high are equivalent to 16% in 1981. I don't think you understand the amount of debt riding on rehypothicated debt.
Russia has high gdp. Bombs don't create growth, raising prices increases gdp on an individual basis, but hurts economies of scale.
The feedback loops are now working backwards.
But those things need to make money for growth. They are burning billions a month and Agi isn't coming tomorrow.
There is no crypto adoption. It's an illiquid ponzi scheme that is firewalled from the banking system for a reason. In fact the more stablecoins created, the more treasuries required entrenching the dollar further. Follow the money. It's a scam.
Tokenization is the only thing being persued and it's a decade away.
Blockchain is slow and costly. We have cheaper, faster and safer databases in use. Just wait for nat gas to rip higher as shale gas comes offline due to low oil prices. Then electricity will skyrocket and bankrupt the miners.
Fednow, zelle, swiftgpi, UK fast pay, etc. All these already exist and dwarf crypto. There is no benefit. It's a sales job. Crypto isn't credit. I get points/cashback etc. Crypto doesn't do that and if the technology is important why did everyone skip it for a better alternative. This isn't new. 🤷
Umm. It's monetary deflation. We've been below our 5.25% monetary growth rate since housing peaked in 2022... That's why it peaked. It's not a mystery.
The bubble blew in 2020. The temporary money flood is over. Now you're seeing the world go broke and people flood into "hedges because they fear stagflation (which is currently present), but afterwards, deflation.
This is the coffin corner. People are terrified of overspeeding, but we're gonna stall.
Yes, that's exactly what the tariffs are designed to do. Blow up the bubbles and refinance the debt at zero percent. We get to bail out our allies and move supply chains. We did this after WW2 except in reverse. This is a reverse Marshall plan essentially.
Cheers
Credit rates this high are equivalent to 16% in 1981. I don't think you understand the amount of debt riding on rehypothicated debt.
Russia has high gdp. Bombs don't create growth, raising prices increases gdp on an individual basis, but hurts economies of scale.
The feedback loops are now working backwards.
But those things need to make money for growth. They are burning billions a month and Agi isn't coming tomorrow.
There is no crypto adoption. It's an illiquid ponzi scheme that is firewalled from the banking system for a reason. In fact the more stablecoins created, the more treasuries required entrenching the dollar further. Follow the money. It's a scam.
Tokenization is the only thing being persued and it's a decade away.
Blockchain is slow and costly. We have cheaper, faster and safer databases in use. Just wait for nat gas to rip higher as shale gas comes offline due to low oil prices. Then electricity will skyrocket and bankrupt the miners.
Fednow, zelle, swiftgpi, UK fast pay, etc. All these already exist and dwarf crypto. There is no benefit. It's a sales job. Crypto isn't credit. I get points/cashback etc. Crypto doesn't do that and if the technology is important why did everyone skip it for a better alternative. This isn't new. 🤷
Umm. It's monetary deflation. We've been below our 5.25% monetary growth rate since housing peaked in 2022... That's why it peaked. It's not a mystery.
The bubble blew in 2020. The temporary money flood is over. Now you're seeing the world go broke and people flood into "hedges because they fear stagflation (which is currently present), but afterwards, deflation.
This is the coffin corner. People are terrified of overspeeding, but we're gonna stall.
Yes, that's exactly what the tariffs are designed to do. Blow up the bubbles and refinance the debt at zero percent. We get to bail out our allies and move supply chains. We did this after WW2 except in reverse. This is a reverse Marshall plan essentially.
Cheers
09-30-2025 | 12:50 PM
#67
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 180
Likes: 8
Oh boy. You're in for a rude awakening.
Anything above a debt to gdp ratio above 95% needs progressively more money to keep "growing".
Don't believe me. Scott Bessent blew up the pound in 1992 with George Soros.
If you understand the monetary system... This is obvious.
Enjoy the show.
Cheers
Anything above a debt to gdp ratio above 95% needs progressively more money to keep "growing".
Don't believe me. Scott Bessent blew up the pound in 1992 with George Soros.
If you understand the monetary system... This is obvious.
Enjoy the show.
Cheers
09-30-2025 | 06:55 PM
#69
Line holder
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,167
Likes: 226
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
I'm afraid that's incorrect.
It's about debt and growth. Once houses and cars crash we'll be in deflation. Ai has no gains. It's a money incinerator. This is kinda my point. Yes the catalyst is different, but it's still the banking system not loaning money to broke people.
If you actually go look you'll see it's all artificial and based on the easy money that's over.
Reshoring has been going on since 2018 and will take a decade.
The economy hasn't suprised anyone who's been watching it...
That's my point people are expecting doom and will fomo into the crash after the next correction because they believe what you're saying.
Block chain makes no money and is literally free to make your own.
It's a hash signed spreadsheet built on the same liquidity pump that's fueling everything else.
I own plenty. It's all a scam. Tokenization of securities will happen in a decade or so, but that's all internal.
Visa and mastercard handle more settlements and faster individually. No business wants to hold monopoly money that fluctuates. No customer wants to deal with returns. I have a chase reserve for a reason. Customer service and no liability
Banks don't own crypto. They custody it for suckers, but they all think it's a scam too. Mstr is a levered ponzi by a noted con man and people think he's God...
That was a great buy in 2020 when he announced his plan. Pure insanity.
The real world runs on debt I'm afraid, and crypto is like a gambling token at a casino. If the casino goes bust. You're boned. Collateralized Stablecoins notwithstanding.
Crypto is used literally nowhere except for a few libertarians. El Salvador didn't even use it it was all propaganda.
This is just like nfts, quantum computing, metaverse, beanie babies etc. All pump and dump. The real value comes later with the ashes.
In fact the railroad bubbles popped from wildcat banking and unregulated securities if you like the history Rhymes idea.
I've been calling for a top near 7000- 8000 for five years because I watched em dump the money in.
That's how I paid for my jet.
You're agreeing with me, but don't like I'm telling you it's ending in approx 6ish months. I get it. Not trying to be a dick.
No. The real risk is it crashes tomorrow. Black swan aside, much higher, and right when people feel amazing 80% and the wealth effect is over. We're 5 million jobs below our pre covid trend. 🤷
To you as well. I'm not calling for the end of the world, but people will be crushed.
End of the debt cycle. The alternative is worse..
Trust me.
It's about debt and growth. Once houses and cars crash we'll be in deflation. Ai has no gains. It's a money incinerator. This is kinda my point. Yes the catalyst is different, but it's still the banking system not loaning money to broke people.
If you actually go look you'll see it's all artificial and based on the easy money that's over.
Reshoring has been going on since 2018 and will take a decade.
The economy hasn't suprised anyone who's been watching it...
That's my point people are expecting doom and will fomo into the crash after the next correction because they believe what you're saying.
Block chain makes no money and is literally free to make your own.
It's a hash signed spreadsheet built on the same liquidity pump that's fueling everything else.
I own plenty. It's all a scam. Tokenization of securities will happen in a decade or so, but that's all internal.
Visa and mastercard handle more settlements and faster individually. No business wants to hold monopoly money that fluctuates. No customer wants to deal with returns. I have a chase reserve for a reason. Customer service and no liability
Banks don't own crypto. They custody it for suckers, but they all think it's a scam too. Mstr is a levered ponzi by a noted con man and people think he's God...
That was a great buy in 2020 when he announced his plan. Pure insanity.
The real world runs on debt I'm afraid, and crypto is like a gambling token at a casino. If the casino goes bust. You're boned. Collateralized Stablecoins notwithstanding.
Crypto is used literally nowhere except for a few libertarians. El Salvador didn't even use it it was all propaganda.
This is just like nfts, quantum computing, metaverse, beanie babies etc. All pump and dump. The real value comes later with the ashes.
In fact the railroad bubbles popped from wildcat banking and unregulated securities if you like the history Rhymes idea.
I've been calling for a top near 7000- 8000 for five years because I watched em dump the money in.
That's how I paid for my jet.
You're agreeing with me, but don't like I'm telling you it's ending in approx 6ish months. I get it. Not trying to be a dick.
No. The real risk is it crashes tomorrow. Black swan aside, much higher, and right when people feel amazing 80% and the wealth effect is over. We're 5 million jobs below our pre covid trend. 🤷
To you as well. I'm not calling for the end of the world, but people will be crushed.
End of the debt cycle. The alternative is worse..
Trust me.
-you are an amazing person. not only did you manage to get hired by frontier as a PILOT, you are also smart enough to make enough money to buy your own jet, and then are nice enough to share your wisdom on APC so we can all achieve that.
-you lost your job, live in your moms basement, are not very smart, and don't have a girlfriend.
Lucky for me it doesn't matter which one you are. Hope you find the help you need.
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