How are you so sure?

 

You sound like an FO I flew with recently. His TDS was so heavy, thinking the world would end, he liquidated his entire 401k (PRAP) during both of Trumps terms, and blames Trump for ruining his retirement plans after missing two historic runs. YCMTSU

Everything you’re saying, people said about the Biden economy too. It didn’t go up but it also didn’t crash the way everyone predicted.

But hey, on a long enough timeline everyone is right at some point, even the Bears. Betting against the US economy in the long run has always been a losing proposition however.

 

I can appreciate your convenience. So are you all in on shorting the market? If not,welll…

 

now do ALk

 

likely we’ll never know as his internet will have been turned off when he gets wiped out.
Alan Greenspan first mentioned “irrational exuberance in 1997, a full 3 years before the downturn. Nowhere near the black swans today that existed back then. I’d be Uber careful about listening to this charlatan. you know, the people who say one thing, but do the opposite.

 

I'm not sure why you think any of this is political. That fo sounds emotional. Why would the Biden economy do well? Who is saying this garbage?

"it's the economy stupid"

If you understood what I said I've been ultra long since the gfc and retired before I turned 36. I'm saying it's gonna crash next year at a much higher level and y'all are gonna be buying every payday 🚀

Only time I've been short is prior to covid and the draw downs as liquidity dried up. Not supposed to be short liquidity in a 44 year bull market. Older than me.

The stock market is not the economy and the president doesn't control the monetary system. Neither does the fed... Which is exactly why people are gonna get crushed. It's global and opaque as hell. We're in a liquidity crisis. Gonna pop next year.

Technically trump has made been president for most of these paper gains. Powell did the rest. Now they're crushing the bubbles to crush China.

If that ruins people's retirement than they aren't paying attention to the world.

Sorry for the confusion

 

No. The markets have MUCH higher to go the next few months. The fomo rally hasn't even begun. It's getting out that's the problem. Btc going to 150k +. S&P 500 to 8000+. Gold 4400.

Crypto is a ponzi scheme BTW.

Those people are the exit liquidity as Wallstreet sells their dog**** private equity to retail and the auto and home markets implode.

Same thing happened in the gfc, dot Com, Asian financial crisis, 1929 etc.

This time isn't different

 

Except the black swan was covid and they fired the money bazooka. Now it's over and there isn't enough money to keep prices at these insane levels.

We're gonna slide back to 2014 prices and the big 25-35 trillion dollar bazooka will be fired after the privatize SS and dismantle the welfare state.

Promise this isn't rocket science, but most people don't realize that money is loaned into existence. High rates, less money... We're already the coyote off the cliff and people will bid it up much higher until the banking system implodes again.

It's gravity. Business cycle is real.

Cheers

 

Because this is how the monetary system works and has our entire lives.

Triffin's paradox

We've been in a depression since August 9th 2007 propped up by credit and zirp.

This isn't a random call. It's going to be when boomers hit max retirement and layoffs meet.

 

You’re right that history rhymes, but it doesn’t repeat on cue. Every cycle has its own drivers. Comparing today’s setup to 1929 or the GFC ignores structural differences: massive liquidity, AI-led productivity gains, reshoring of supply chains, and a U.S. economy that keeps surprising to the upside.

Calling crypto a Ponzi is lazy. Unlike 2000-era dot-coms with no revenue, blockchain infrastructure is being integrated into payments, custody, and settlement. The players aren’t just “retail exit liquidity”—BlackRock, Fidelity, and sovereign wealth funds don’t buy “dog****” to get dumped on.

As for “this time isn’t different”—it actually is. Every major bull run looked unsustainable in the moment. People said the same at S&P 1,500, at 3,000, and at 4,500. Now they’ll say it again at 6,000 on the way to 8,000.

The real risk isn’t that markets collapse tomorrow. The real risk is being too bearish and missing the gains while waiting for the crash that never comes.

When the economy eventually corrects, one thing is certain: United, Delta, and the rest will do what they must to capitalize on it. Wishing you the best on your future returns—cheers!