Flyby or bouldarian, any guesses why we are staying at 60/month in 2014. I had heard 100/month from multiple publications. My guess is cause so little are taking the earlyout. Any insight?

 

The goal for a 100 a month is still a goal. The issue to multifactorial with regards to required staffing levels, training program ability, be proactive vice reactive and more. Manpower has to tell training/hiring that we need the bodies first. This is predicated on long-term goals and plans, block hours, schedules. None of this has made its way down. I do know that we are planning to retire 2000 pilots in the next 3 years without growth. I see a problem brewing.

 

"Downsize the airline! Problem solved. That was easy, what's for lunch?"

 

I wish you were kidding.

 

Unfilled bids (possible new hire positions) on latest award are all New York.

737 - 81
A320 - 20
76T - 18

 

Sad for sure. No growth planned for the next four years so we can "be better positioned and handle the merger" nonsense is weak. I am hoping that the Wall Street and industry pressures force us to have to grow because our headshed has to prove that they aren't as weak as perceived by many.

 

Almost certainly will be newhire positions.

Interesting. 38 unfilled vacancies from the LUAL side. New York used to go fairly senior but it was a MUCH smaller base pre-merger.

 

Even if they tried to grow at this point, they're so far behind on building a training pipeline, it will take at least until the end of 2014 before pilot staffing levels are healthy enough to grow. I did notice that, in the latest United Investor Update (24 Oct), they anticipate 4Q2013 mainline capacity to grow by 2.3-3.3%. For Q4, they anticipate regional capacity to grow 3.9-49%.

Good luck with that regional growth working out; I just read that even the great SkyWest wasn't able to fill their latest newhire class; it was short by 9 people. I am hoping that we see a trend reversal from the last decade - regional contraction with their flying being replaced by mainline flying. ... if there's a pilot shortage on the regional level, they could cancel two RJ flights, replace them with one mainline flight and not lose any ASMs on the city pair.

 

Got this from a check airman who attended latest standards meeting in DEN.

Pilot Hiring:
26 interviews/week
12 hires/week currently, about 4 months from hire notification to class date 1st class has gone to 76T and A320
11,700 active applications
Average regional quals 6,000-8,000 TT, 5,000-6,000 PIC
Pilot retirements: 10 yrs - 4,000 pilots, 13 yrs - 6,000 pilots (50%)

 

Its all the "extra pilots" the LUAL side had.....