Much of that is yet to be decided, although I think you're probably a bit confused about the time frame required for some of these things to occur. For there to be displacements of any type, there needs to a displacement notice. I suspect that will occur at some point in the next couple of months for the 767T fleets as the 757-200 starts to draw down. As that happens, those pilots will have displacement rights to go where they can hold.

I'm very familiar with Denver, so I'll use that as an example. There are about 120 767T Cap and 120 767T F/O's in Denver. ALL of the Cap's and about 100 of the F/O's can hold 737 Cap in Denver based on the junior man list. So that makes about 220 Denver pilots that could potentially attempt to go to DEN 737 CAP. Not all will, clearly, but many will. So let's say that 1/4 of them do. Roughly 55-60 pilots. Unless the base grows commensurately, there will be bumps off the bottom. As it stands now that will come from the very junior CAL awards that happened recently.

Who knows how management will handle it, but to assume that the basic premise of bumps likely happening is untrue before the displacement process has even started is denying reality.

 

I bet there will be no displacement notices in the near future. The company knows that this will trigger extra training cycles costing more money. They will manage growth, deliveries and attrition in such a manner to avoid displacements and extra training.

 

Maybe.

They're also talking about parking 50+ airplanes in the next 2 years. All of those pilots need to be retrained. They have to be displaced to move to whatever the next position is. It has to happen. As the jets go away, the job changes. That equates to what... at least 600-700 pilots that will need new positions?

 

We have more retirements than that in the next 2 years.

I don't think its going to be that bad. There may be bumps, but they probably won't be that drastic.

 

And there's also aircraft deliveries as the 757s get replaced by the 737-900ER.

 

I think "replaced" is too strong a descriptor. More like "barely adequate substitution"

 

"But they have the same number of seats!!!" --- UCH CFO

 

Latest MEC email recommended that DEN and ORD 767 pilots make sure to bid reserve as a backup as there will be significantly more reserve lines next month.

Stand by for the bumps. I hope the jr 737 folks in Denver didn't go out and buy a house..............

 

You people just don't get it. The company will do whatever necessary to protect the "chosen ones". S-UAL pilots will be on reserve taking pay hits for some time to keep from bumping anyone. Flight Ops will throttle vacancies, try to speed 737 deliveries, slow 757 retirements, alter the basing of aircraft, etc. Vacancy bidding is going to slow way down for a year or two. I wouldn't be surprised if they allow the 14-02D's to become pay protected and train them at a much later date. They will pull every manpower trick possible to limit displacements. They've already broadcast their intentions...

From the SCC:

The company is planning to deal with reductions, if needed, primarily with attrition. If this is not completely effective, there will be Displacements between vacancy bids. The UPA displacement process is completely different from Vacancy Bids and will be explained at a later date.

Some of these measures will save money. Some will cost money. If you don't think Flight Ops will spend money to do this think again. I have $40 million reasons why that is untrue. I don't want to see S-CAL pilots get displaced just for the sake of displacement, but it will be interesting to see the lengths the company may go to protect them.

The Flight Ops also gets an added benefit of creating dissension between the two groups by doing all this. But hey, at least they have willing participants.

Dogg

 

The company doesn't have chosen ones. To them it's like paying for a part. Why buy another one when they the one they already paid for is working fine. They already paid for the pilot to be trained.....why would they want to train another if they don't have to? Managment looks at numbers, metrics and anything they can measure. To say they prefer one group over another is plain silliness. They treat us all as cost centers and replaceable.

If your seniority can hold captain 737 then bid it. Between new aircraft deliveries and retirements there will be plenty of vacancies.