Snapshot is out

 

It most certainly is...

Thanks for that.

 

So the latest snapshot shows 46 "awards" for DEN 737 CA and 31 "awards" for DEN 737 FO. Do we know if there will be that many vacancies for DEN 737? If less than 46 and 31, where are those secondary displacements going?

It seems to me this whole backfill thing isn't nearly as complicated as the company makes it. I mean they know based on seniority who is getting displaced, they know based on preferences where those guys want to go and how many slots there are... so write a sorting program, plug and chug and publish the result. On the other hand, if we've got a team of dudes working with slide rules, #2 pencils and graph paper, I guess it could take awhile.

 

To answer your ? in the 1st paragraph, I'd bet most will go 787 FO since the majority of those displaced will be L-CAL 73 Capts.

 

DEN is going to need less than 50 net new Captains and FOs on the guppy.

There are still about 30 pilots who haven't submitted their choices yet for this bump so those numbers are going to rise.

There are still going to be at least 2 more bumps of this size in DEN still. Its likely that most of these pilots will get bumped as well.

Expect Captain in DEN to go to less than 5,000 seniority and 7,500 just to be based there.

DEN is going to be ugly.

Don't expect vacancy bids for a long time in DEN.

IAH guppy is next, overstaffed by 100+ in each seat not to mention the DEN pilots that are going to go to that base.

The two running manpower planning are LUAL managers, and they are very experienced at displacement and base right-sizing.

The next year will be interesting.

 

Yeah, the two guys are very experienced at phu(king it up. I haven't seen lUAL do this well, ever.

Consider they are growing the guppy in Denver and shrinking the bus. In IAH, they are going to shrink the guppy, and grow the bus????? Don't they both do approximately the same thing? They are going to displace a few hundred pilots, for no change in capability. Brilliant.

Slide rules and #2 pencils. LMAO. I wish they were smart enough to know what to do with either. I could offer an idea where they could put them, however.

 

If I were king, I would do 1 huge displacement bid, with an effective date 12-18 months into the future. Then a couple of secondaries, and be done with it.

Within a month, every pilot at UAL would know what they can plan for the next few years.

 

Problem is your not...they don't give a sheet about you, your family or your well being ...just make sure you are on time for work! Sorry, but that's just how it is with this mgt group.

 

It's the only way they can do a flush bid, which is what this is.

 

Don't have the numbers I crunched overall from company graphs but if I remember correctly about 275 Captains excess now but 200 openings, mainly in ORD, LAX, and SFO. Factor in retirements over next year and that 75 delta is eaten up. Numbers a little lower for FOs.

The X factor is IAD guppy base. If that study ever ends, and base opens huge game changer. As a bottom 100 guy in IAH I am not sweating it. But not moving to Houston quite yet. Last bid 25 above me in IAH took something elsewhere. Another bid like that and it will happen again. On the captain side they are already virtually near 500 already due to LTA and soon to retire captains using their sick time while they can. If somebody is moving down here PM me for neighborhood gouge-it is not just Woodlands-and welcome to Texas! But how many folks from say Denver are pulling their kids out if school to move or will sign up for one of the worse commutes in system.

It is gonna suck for somebody and maybe me. But strongly suspect not all that bad overall and what can I do about it? So just watch and wait. And enjoy life. If you come down to Texas first one is on me.