Maybe I missed something, but the 767's I thought we were keeping. No close retirements there. As long as fuel is cheap, 767 looks real good against the 787-8's. But that was last week. New week on Sunday.....

 

Steve Forte said we'd have 20,000 pilots by 2010 (or something like that). I'll go with that projection.

I think I've seen this show before....

 

Yup. Most of us have seen it twice already.

UCH is planning on growing overall capacity in very very low single digits over the next couple of years. Organically, that does not make us grow to 16,000 pilots.

Unless, we buy somebody. (Alaska?, Spirit?)

And/or, we insource the vast majority of UAX flying, and hire or merge the pilots. It might make more sense to hire them, as mergers suck. A little of this is planned. A "little" doesn't get us to 16k pilots. We would have to insource the majority of UAX. Who knows, it might happen. Or not. The motivation for this might be to make UAX jobs more attractive, so they could attract more/better applicants. Right now it is a food fight for pilots at the bottom.

The downside? We can nearly instantly park a bunch of old airframes, and we probably would if oil goes back up or the economy goes off a cliff. Right back to 10k pilots, or less.

What will happen? Who knows, and we are all just pawns along for the ride. Grab a 6 pack and hang on for the ride.

I only predict.....change.

 

^^^ what he said. Only real growth is probably going to be associated with purchase/integration of UAX sized aircraft/pilots (100 seats)...

 

There is not going to be a replacement of one type for another. It's ever evolving based on price points at time of purchase. Sure you will probably see the 350 do most of the routes the 747 does today, but the markets can change from now until they arrive.

The max will not replace the Atlantic 757s, they may replace the PS 757s, but my guess is that order will evolve over time into other types.

Also all it takes is for the next down turn to have these orders deferred or at best just become pure replacements for older aircraft in our fleet.

The mantra of growth these days is GDP-. Capacity will increase at a rate less than GDP. That's calculated in ASMs, not block hours or departures. With the up gauging going on, yes mainline will see hours shifted in from Express but overall on a consolidated basis departures are down as are block hours.

The comments and jokes about long range planning meeting every day is really not a joke but a reality. Every day global changes affect different business opportunities. It is amazing how pilots who have been in the industry for some time still believe they work in a static environment.

 

Excellent comments...best on this particular board in a long time...things change and the competition is fierce.

I've been retired coming up on a year now (closer to 70 than 60) and the best industry advice I ever received from a mentor captain was to stay well within your financial means and never be wedded to a particular contract or long-term plan...always be able to adapt...things change constantly.

This particular individual (long deceased) saw the light in the late 1970's and early '80's well before most who were still in a state of catatonic denial. It was good advice, still is...one must be able to bob and weave because tomorrow might be different.

 

I'm wondering just how big an airline can get before they become so big they are unwieldy, inefficient and their costs go up as they continue to grow. Airlines need to be able to adapt to change and inherently the larger you are, the harder and slower that becomes.
To me, flying has become a commodity. The vast majority of passengers only look at cost and that's it. They're isn't much brand loyalty left.

 

My post was more or less theorizing how all the aircraft coming on board would Be utilized. My post was my opinion. I would imagine at some point some 757 will be replaced by the max. At some point the 767-300 will be retired. Not next week but the aircraft that will fill that role would be the 787. My comments were just guesses.

I do not have insider info. Just that 16000 although great is probably not rooted in reality.

 

I find the 16000 figure to be a bit far fetched myself. Would have been great for me though. I would love to be out of the bottom third in a few years and at least have the option to bid narrow body captain. If it seems too good to be true it always is.

 

Bill Traub told our indoc class in the summer of '90 that we'd be captains in 3-5 yrs and widebody captains in 8-10. Managers tell that same story to each new generation of suckers. Listen to the old line pilots who have seen it all... twice. Better advice.