Knotcher

No sweat...the rest of us will move forward without mr. shortbus .

CLazarus

Hmmm, not a single response supporting development/purchase of a 737-10 Max since I asked if anyone wanted to make a case for it the other day. I think it marks a major first in 121 pilot community history - unanimity!

So, I've been thinking some more about the -700 deferral. I always wondered how quickly we were going to absorb all those jets with Boeing able to produce 40+ a month, and perhaps the CO realized we just couldn't get there from here training-wise. That, plus there really wasn't a need for all those ASMs so quickly.

Like it or not, I wouldn't be too surprised to ultimately see some of the slightly larger 7 Max that Boeing has been discussing offering ultimately enter our fleet. Why? Aside from replacing some of our oldest 700s/319s, I imagine their extra capacity would still top out below 150 seats and thus keep to a three FA crew. So, I think the seat mile costs would be pretty comparable to an 8 Max.

Anyone willing to start a betting pool on a NSNB purchase in the next couple of years?

Triumph

I've recently heard some rumors of talk about a frontier acquisition. Makes at least a little sense. They have the Airbus and they have some gates in Denver.

awax

I for one don't like that you won't be too surprised, it's truly amazing that we're not still flying DC-3s.

82spukram

NSNB

Since you asked for thoughts. I have a few. This is my personal thoughts and are not rumors just what I think to be common sense or based of things I have heard Munoz, Kirby, Or Levi say:

1) when asked on the 3qt call about RJ's Scott Kirby used a phrase I had not heard before:scope maximum. That was the limiting factor in more RJ's. 65 737 took United total RJ needs to ~350 (that was from June timeframe before the "new team". Currently they have reached the 255 big RJ limit (orders plus actual aircraft flying). If they want more big RJ's the only path forward under the UPA is a NSNB. I believe that the 190 is in our future. Why? Because United already owns several 175 and an order for the 190 can be package together with a 175 order (total big RJ's if we get a NSNB is 325)....greater number of aircraft in the order should yield a better price. We also have contract maintenance set up in every city where the 175 flys so in short order you can deploy the aircraft with technicians ready to work on the airplanes.

2) if they do a NSNB then we have a fleet of aging 737/320/319 to replace. That is a total of ~450 airplanes. The oldest 737 and 320 will be 30 years old in the next 5 years....why not replace them with a more efficient technology.

3). I honestly believe that in the short term you will see a large (~25) number of used 320 being purchased. If they really do have slack in the current system and can get 25 used 320 series aircraft, plus 4 737-800 plus the other 6 used airbus from china they have enough lift to cover replacing most of the 50 seat RJ retirements. Assuming these airplanes are the same vintage as the Chinese 319 you can then retire some of the oldest 320/737 aircraft after the first of the SNB arrive.

4) Current generation aircraft prices are going to start to decline with the introduction of the NeO/Max/E2/CS. Airlines will also take these new aircraft and put older 320/737 up for sale or not renew leases. It should be a buyers market. Might be a cheap time to buy used aircraft. (That's what I gather from Levi comments on cap ex)

82spukram

Oh and just for humor. I did fly with


a flight attendant who's dad designed one of the US Military drones and said that Boeing is going to offer a new 757 and it will be ready with in 5 years. UAL is going to get ride of 737-900 and 757 for this new version.

He said his dad, (a former) Boeing employee, told him it would be complete in a similar timeframe as the max program.

So there's that for the classic Fa rumor.


He did know about the deferment of the 737 on Oct 30th when I flew with him so he wasn't totally full of BS.

CLazarus

Glad to have them. I tend to think we wouldn't get used/new 190s, as Brian Znotins had previously said we'd looked and weren't interested. Not too long ago, Kirby's previous employer decided to get rid of theirs. New 190/195 E2s? I think they are definitely a possibility.

An updated 757? Well, I imagine lots of pilots would be happy if that rumor turned out to be true. Not sure how much it would cost to develop vs. a potentially more efficient clean sheet (HWB, Double Bubble, etc.). I'm sure it would be a lot less than a clean sheet, but not so sure an update would present a more compelling business case than the 321NEO.

Grumble

Had someone from the big building in the Jumpseat a few weeks ago, I won't say who. He offered to dispel any rumors from the line and I asked where the rumor of us buying Spirit was coming from (I keep hearing that, insert F9, B6 if you like). He said in a meeting prior to this conversation (may have been a captain upgrade class), I think it was OM, said that Smisek had allowed us to fall way behind DAL and AA, the company now had an end state goal of 1000 airplanes and 16-20k pilots. With this we could really hit the full potential, and the only way to get there was to buy someone. No company was specifically mentioned, but his guess was that was where the rumor was born.

Not sure how true this is, or after last weeks announcement it even still applies if accurate.

HuggyU2

Speaking of the 757, what is UAL's plan on retiring them? How old are the airframes?

cadetdrivr

UAL has already retired the ones it doesn't want/need and replaced (cough) the domestic ones with 737-900ERs except for the PS (EWR-LAX/SFO) configured birds. FWIW, FedEx bought a bunch of them for cargo conversions.

There really isn't a direct replacement aircraft being manufactured (yet) to replace the RR powered frames for the markets they are being used (mostly trans-Atlantic).

The oldest remaining one is from '89, the newest '00.

https://sites.google.com/site/united...fleet-tracking