I’d rather get kicked in the junk than relax scope by any amount.

 

I’m definitely a NO vote if we receive a TA that has ANY relaxation in Scope. I don’t care what the rest of the TA says, because I won’t even read it. If section one is unsat, the rest of the TA is unsat.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TG8r7Ey3VNs

 

https://youtu.be/NJ5q06EAf0E

 

I don’t think that we need to worry about a TA that relaxes scope. The MEC has been vocal from day one that weakening our scope language isn’t even on the table. Being that scope relief is the big ticket item that the company wants, I don’t expect to be close to a TA any time soon either. Until then we just plug away under a pretty good contract while the process goes on. I don’t pay dues for a lousy magazine. When the negotiations team has something I’ll read it and vote accordingly.

 

Amen.

Filler.

 

The nominal launch customer of the 321LR, Primera, just ceased operations. They only had two aircraft coming (via lease), but as others have already mentioned there are an awful lot of orders out there on shaky legs. Lots of fast growing carriers out there who made big, splashy orders that they may not be around to take delivery of. E.G. - lots of aircraft on order from Indian carriers... but I think only one of them is slightly profitable right now.

In the meantime, all the reporting I've seen says BA is having a tough time closing the business case for developing the 797. That is, they are unable to find a performance/payload combination that could compete in price against the 321LR. If they can't figure it out in time for the Paris Airshow next summer, there is a decent chance we may decide it isn't worth the wait until the mid-2020s for a 797. I suspect there will be 321LR slots to be had if we don't decide to wait.

The next year should be very interesting as I imagine things will start to resolve.

Oh, and to touch on the eternal question of whether we ever take the 350s. If BA sharpens its pencils and offers 787s/777Xs at a low enough price I think we'd be willing to eat the cancellation costs. I suspect whoever negotiated the 350 purchase did not drive much of a bargain (witness the RR engine contract which we are stuck with). A smoking 787/777X deal plus the savings in training/logistics might finally put the stake in the 350 deal. Probably won't become clear for some time though.

 

Primera. With WOW and Norwegian to follow. WOW's privately held so I don't have numbers on them but Icelandic banks took a bath on Primera so they're unlikely to extend more credit to WOW. Norwegian won't report Q3 numbers until 25 Oct but it looks like a small loss from looking at their monthly RASK numbers compared to their Q2 CASK. Norwegian has up to 140 aircraft (that number includes orders) for sale.

That all but kills the ULCC TATL airlines. Again. This is at least the 3rd iteration of attempting to start ULCC TATL airlines since Freddie Laker.

 

For us, that's not a bad thing. Hell and sucks for those that lose their jobs.

Laker is how we ended up with our DC10-30's. Ex Laker DC10's. Maybe instead of delivery slots, lots of slightly used planes for sale soon....

 

We can start the rumor that Ual is taking Norwegian’s 787’s so we can retire the 767.