Ok dude, believe what you want. It is what it is.

I’m not looking to re-litigate the last extension or the previous one. We overwhelmingly made our choice. The future is what matters. I agree the economy may be about to take a hard dump that could screw those pilot groups in negotiations. Although I am unhappy with the lack of growth in our compensation (both pay and retirement) and few are happy with QOL under the optimizer, things could be worse. Our EB has taken the bird in hand repeatedly over potentially two in the bush. There are pros to this strategy. However, it almost guarantees that some other pilot group will have to hit some extra base hits before we make significant gains. The problem with this is that our company is leaving its competitors in the dust on profit margins and revenue growth. Our competitors (FedEx primarily) can’t afford to grow contract value significantly which means we could be waiting a very long time for their contract to be a positive factor in contract negotiations. I’m not sure exactly how to best address this conundrum, but we pay the EB handsomely to do so. Hopefully, they figure it out.

Classic example of “I am right, you are wrong, go away” 😬.

While we disagree on multiple issues, your post is pretty accurate. Absolutely no one comes close to UPS profit margins. Doesn’t mean they will happily open their wallets to us or the Teamsters. Based on the behavior of the pilot group, I predict we will make modest gains in pay and scheduling, at best. At the very least, if not cutting down on multiple reports, lots of work days, eliminate the circadian flip flops, and make lines all EDW or non EDW, not both.

My daughter is at a regional now. She is 22. If she could get hired at a decent legacy (Delta, United, Southwest) by 25 why on earth should she come to UPS. She could potentially have a 40+ year career. Can you imagine doing what we do now for that long. Let alone trying to have a family at some point. There are certainly pluses to coming here, but the minuses have been racking up over the years. This lifestyle isn't for everybody and the decision to come here isn't that clear cut anymore. To those of you that might laugh at the prospect of people getting hired in their mid 20's at a legacy, it's happening!

If we start negotiations in 2025 you can bet it will be 2030 or 2031 before we see an agreement, all of the high dollar contracts being ratified in the industry will give us a nice tailwind.

deal by 2028

That is optimistic, but not completely unrealistic. However, Delta and others will be near done with their 2nd contracts.

Hopefully we can leverage that to our advantage

Negotiations will contractually begin in September 2024, one year before amendable date.