There will ALWAYS be pilots bypassing upgrade, either because they like their QOL or they are on the PFO track or don't want to commute/fly a different airframe or _______.

Delta has the same percentage of FOs bypassing upgrade that we do, even ignoring the outlier stupid junior NYC CA positions.

Training was paused for my class in 2005. Enjoyed the month of December off!

Upgrade for a new hire today is looking at 5-6 years

Didn't guys in the first 14' class come within 300 numbers of upgrade on that last system bid? Certainly gives that 5-6 yrs statistic some weight if accurate. Not sure how that would translate to 17&18' newhires though...

Please do.

-Giant Pilot

As long as its not the same deal as Challenge Air :eek:

Based on the IPA Seniority Calculator, I'm a 2007 hire with 326 numbers to the junior Capt.

There were at least 150 (possibly 170, not motivated to look) hired after me in 2007. That would make a 2014 hire more like 400+ numbers from upgrade.

We'll see how it goes from here. They still haven't recovered from this last bid.

I'm 100ish behind Cactus, it's about 450 to a 2014 hire from the plug.

According to ST's current seniority list, junior CPT is 1802 (ANC M1F) and first guy from June 14' class is at 2288. 486 numbers. The guy who mentioned the 300-something to me factored in his guesstimate of bypassers. His argument was that the percentage of bypassers increases as seniority decreases. I verified those numbers but got strikingly different results:

Next 100 senior to 1802 = 11 cpts, 89% bypass
Next 100 = 15 captains, 85% bypass
And so on = 25, 75%
34, 66%
49, 51%

Applying that in reverse from 1802 and keeping a fixed 90% bypass rate:

CPT is 48.6 #'s from 1st 2014 newhire and 88.7 numbers from newest guys on property (2689total-1802 = 887 numbers from list plug)*.1 = 88.7). Even though it's just a limited model and in no way will it predict future bid outcomes, the data does hint at how places like DAL and FX (and presumably us too?) can have such quick upgrade times.

Other observations poolies may find interesting:

List is just an RCH from 2700.
401 newhires since hiring resumed in 2014, previous class was NOV 2007.
222 newhires in 2017 so far.
In last 2 classes, every domicile and every a/c was awarded. Seems there may be 3-4 month waves where they alternate between heavy amounts of domestic and then international (M1F & 74) awards.
Last class in 2014 was August, 2015 had a September class, 2016 was back to August. 2017?? 78 more guys to reach 300.

Junior cappy has run generally about 65%, and when the MOAB closed in January the Junior CA was (then) 75%.

I have a hard time believing bypassing 98-01 hires on domestic fleets holding preferred vacation and week on/off or three week-on day flying with commercial DHs will en masse bid to the bottom of the list in ANC where the growth airframes are (allegedly) going to be based.

Of course with each vacancy there will be bypassers that decide to pull the trigger on upgrade, but I suspect if we see another bid with 200+ CA positions upgrade will drop into 2007 hires.

If the company were to announce something like a SDF 747 domicile, all bets would be off though :D