Having just read BM's email...
03-09-2018 | 11:40 AM
#31
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 55
Likes: 0
As a senior FO who has apps at the big 3, I talk to FOs as I come across and ask if they have their stuff out. My own experience, the majority of them don't have their stuff out - certainly not 8 in 10.
The problem with being 5th best is that it's only worth leaving for the 4 best above it. UAL has pulled down their hiring plans for this year, and last year they didn't even have any classes from ~March til December. AA is a simple game of military and flow math. If out of a 100 slots, 50 go military, then 35 are flows and guarantees from Envoy/PSA/Piedmont, and only about 15% true off the street hires. Chances are slim to nil for AA as a civilian OTS. That leaves Delta, which actually has hired like gangbusters, but getting a call there is still hard and a mystery. Going to their ATL job fair doesn't guarantee an interview, nor does any job fair for that matter. The 4th place is Southwest, and IMO I wouldn't leave AS/VX to go start over at SW. Same airplane, same domestic schedule with 2-5 legs/day, and a huge paycut for most people for the first several years. You'll be a FO at Southwest probably just as long as a newhire will be FO here at Alaska, and that's based on projected growth and retirement numbers (both of which are significantly less than at the 3 legacy carriers).
So that's the situation. Leaving isn't easy when you're at the 5th best. (The above doesn't include UPS/Fedex, as their flying wouldn't be my cup of tea).
The problem with being 5th best is that it's only worth leaving for the 4 best above it. UAL has pulled down their hiring plans for this year, and last year they didn't even have any classes from ~March til December. AA is a simple game of military and flow math. If out of a 100 slots, 50 go military, then 35 are flows and guarantees from Envoy/PSA/Piedmont, and only about 15% true off the street hires. Chances are slim to nil for AA as a civilian OTS. That leaves Delta, which actually has hired like gangbusters, but getting a call there is still hard and a mystery. Going to their ATL job fair doesn't guarantee an interview, nor does any job fair for that matter. The 4th place is Southwest, and IMO I wouldn't leave AS/VX to go start over at SW. Same airplane, same domestic schedule with 2-5 legs/day, and a huge paycut for most people for the first several years. You'll be a FO at Southwest probably just as long as a newhire will be FO here at Alaska, and that's based on projected growth and retirement numbers (both of which are significantly less than at the 3 legacy carriers).
So that's the situation. Leaving isn't easy when you're at the 5th best. (The above doesn't include UPS/Fedex, as their flying wouldn't be my cup of tea).
I foresee current new hire FOs in the 7 year to upgrade range for first available slot, plus or minus of course.
SWA is still in the 10 year range, again plus or minus.
03-09-2018 | 12:46 PM
#32
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 28
Likes: 0
And why is that? Kinda funny considering 3 out of the 4 "large" airlines have been BK multiple times and SWA would AirTran you guys, lol. Spirit, JetBlue & Allegiant have never filed for BK, are growing and F9 (though working under a BK contract) will eventually get a new one (same with JB) and at least has a business model that wont lose money in the best economy in almost 20 years.......................
03-09-2018 | 04:01 PM
#33
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 248
Likes: 0
From: Left Seat
This is a spot on anylysis; I would add in most have roots in the PNW and if they don’t want to commute that takes SWA off the table.
I foresee current new hire FOs in the 7 year to upgrade range for first available slot, plus or minus of course.
SWA is still in the 10 year range, again plus or minus.
I foresee current new hire FOs in the 7 year to upgrade range for first available slot, plus or minus of course.
SWA is still in the 10 year range, again plus or minus.
03-09-2018 | 05:40 PM
#36
OTZEagle1
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 409
Likes: 0
7 years I imagine is correct for Alaska going forward. There are 4 year upgrades right now but that is because there was a three year gap in hiring. So those hired at the beginning of the last hiring boom benefited from this situation. The new numbers that I have seen have very little growth over the next 24 months which will slow hiring and upgrades... it looks like hiring for attrition, plus 50 to 100 a year for growth
03-09-2018 | 06:33 PM
#37
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,292
Likes: 1
I think you’re wrong about the paycut.. most certainly about it being huge and definitely about it being for serveral years. At most the pay cut would be for 12 months and would be pretty minimal.. my buddy started SWA at the same time I started here and he is holding 16-18 days off and making more than I do in a month, easily. Meanwhile I’m holding around 14 days off.
03-09-2018 | 06:42 PM
#39
Guest
Posts: n/a
While we may be fifth in some metric, we
lag 20-30% behind all 4 airlines in compensation. Alaska pilots will never make a W2 to TAFB or W2 to block comparison with the other airlines because frankly it is embarrasing. So the time back to equivalency is much shorter than advertised. We at Alaska place a much higher value on driving to work than we do on getting paid to work....
lag 20-30% behind all 4 airlines in compensation. Alaska pilots will never make a W2 to TAFB or W2 to block comparison with the other airlines because frankly it is embarrasing. So the time back to equivalency is much shorter than advertised. We at Alaska place a much higher value on driving to work than we do on getting paid to work....
03-09-2018 | 07:18 PM
#40
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 57
Likes: 0
From: A-320 Captain
I think you’re wrong about the paycut.. most certainly about it being huge and definitely about it being for serveral years. At most the pay cut would be for 12 months and would be pretty minimal.. my buddy started SWA at the same time I started here and he is holding 16-18 days off and making more than I do in a month, easily. Meanwhile I’m holding around 14 days off.
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