Good to cya back. 👍🏻

 

I would guess you are right. If LUV moves on JetBlue, almost certainly I would guess UAL moves on ALK. I think the other two are too big to make a play. The only move ALK would have left in this case would be Frontier or HAL. I would put the odds at 5 to 1... reasonable anyways

Thanks Av8

 

MARK MY WORDS. THE MAX WILL NOT BE AIRBORNE UNTIL AT LEAST FEBRUARY 2020. MINIMUM. First thing we will have to read about on APC is that pilots are receiving and actively learning about MCAS. When you start reading that, place you stock purchase bids at all Boeing operators and at Boeing itself. Until then, fuhgeddaboudit.

 

As of early September, Alaska will be returning 3 Airbuses, still love the NEO variant, have 40 Maxes on order and think that a dual fleet "could" work but may steal a deal with Boeing in light of 346 souls lost. Here's the deal...If it isn't a NEO, that Airbus will go in due time. NEOs can even be gone if the MAX ever gets off the ground which is anticipated by Wall Street in 2Q20 so plan accordingly. Long term, IMO, 30 Airbus NEOs and the rest Boeing. Ever wonder why the "Proudly All Boeing" decal hasn't been removed?

 

One full year of grounding is kinda ridiculous, considering we know it was because it was only linked up with one AOA sensor and then started to fire once that one sensor malfunctioned. That malfunction started a failure mode with a stick shaker on the CA side and erroneous speed/altitude values. We know now once the flaps came to 0, MCAS started to fire and would continue to do so with the malfunctioned AOA. Either pull the speed back and flaps to 1, or cut off those trim cutoff switches. Again we know this in hindsight.

The fix is simple, and Boeing has already said they will link MCAS to both AOA sensors. Both sensors would have to sense/read a high alpha value to get MCAS to operate. And once it does, it’ll fire one time with a limited amount of nose down trim. No more tug of war. In fact, if it was linked to both sensors, neither crash would have happened because MCAS wouldn’t have operated.

Now if we want to discuss Boeing’s coziness with the FAA, the FAA allowing too much reign at Boeing, should maybe reel them in, that’s all great discussion for future changes. But this one MCAS problem is fixable, Boeing is ready, and “testing” the fix is in November. There’s no reason to keep delaying the grounding once the fix is ready and implemented + tested by the feds.

As long as Trump leaves the tariffs on the Airbus and tariffs on China, the ungrounding of the MAX with EASA and CAAC can easily become political - not based on safety. I could see a case where the FAA is ready to lift the grounding, but other nation regulatory authorities say no. And if their nations build the Airbus and are benefiting, with very very little MAXes in Europe, why should they be in any hurry to lift a competitor when their own product has a tariff on it? Or they can simply say we want more time to study the Boeing fix and results. This IMO is why the industry is projecting lifting the MAX in Feb/March. Maybe even Q2. (That would suck). Ultimately, I don’t know if it’s a realistic goal to have one universal un-grounding of the MAX. One chosen date the whole world is okay with? All it takes is one nation to say no.


A319/320s don’t have a future here, the lease returns are happening. The future of dual fleet would be NEOs or go back to all 737s. Time will tell but Boeing will give $$$$ sale deals to sell the MAX en mass once it’s flying again. If we’re bettin’ in Vegas IMO we go back to an all Boeing fleet.

 

good rumor but the more likely version is

SWA "sucks it up" until the MAX is back, all those years of smart financial management provides them with the ability to do this.

MAX comes back and SWA resumes its growth/etc

SWA reviews other aircraft types aka A-220, etc

 

by the way, the FAA may indeed say, well Boeing, what ELSE have you not told us ?

and make them re-certify more, or, all, of the airplane.

 

The 3 MAXs have come out of the factory with the "Proudly All Boeing"

 

I had concerns along those lines, more about other specific issues coming to light in the course of the investigation, if BCA has been taking broad liberties with their self-approval authority.

But they won't un-certify the entire plane just "because". Too much political and economic blowback.

 

Max recertification should be inked by no later then mid December by the FAA. Training and maintenance completed by mid February. Max flying passengers March 1st. I am 99% sure we will be a single fleet by 2024. Very few will know the actual numbers but I keep hearing whispers of around 4.6 billion for 100. If numbers any where near that are true then this is absolutely a home run for all of our careers.