Originally Posted by Ala5ka (Post 3394846)

I think this is probably the best case scenario at this point..

i foresee it going differently. Hiring will stop, most junior are displaced back into the right seat… agree that we will for once be adequately staffed but the company will see that as excess meat on the bones… hiring will not resume for a long time. this will be used as contract negotiations continue. Company will say it’s fat on pilots and either accept a weak ta or prepare to furlough down to size. They’ll get their 51%. Sfo is closed. Bus is gone according to new schedule.

Qx is slowly dwindled down to nothing. Eventually those pilots will be slowly be given class dates at Alaska.. Alaska will use that as contract stall fodder for further negotiation cycles. They’ll argue as deserves less because it took less to get here blah blah blah.

sad but I believe it’s close to reality

Originally Posted by RNO Flyer (Post 3395228)

I asked the same sort of question in another thread, but with a mixed fleet of 217 aircraft now going to 241 737s at the end of 2023, that’s greater than 11% fleet growth in less than two years. If all options on future aircraft get executed (as they historically have been), that’s 44% fleet growth within 5 years for 314 737s by the of 2026. If the crew ratio stays the same, that’s a need for 1,300+ pilots in that five year span, but 217 more for mandatory retirements (from APCs numbers). So I get that in the next 18-24 months the displacement of Airbus pilots and absorption into the 737 training pipeline may cause issues, but in the long term how does any of this equal stagnation?

Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3395271)

How many of those are growth and how many are just replacements of Airbus that will be sold?

Originally Posted by RNO Flyer (Post 3395280)

I'm just going off of slide 37 in the investor presentation marked "Fleet Evolution 2019-2026" which shows 396 total aircraft in 2026, including the Horizon E175s. Slide 32 shows there will be 82 E175s, so IF all options are executed that's 314 737s on mainline in 2026.

Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3395282)

If Planespotter is correct, Alaska has 35 A320s and 10 A321s. If they all are replaced with 737s, that would be a significant portion of the “growth” of the 737s.

Originally Posted by airb320 (Post 3394868)

Hahahaha… “13% Synergies”… with the way you ‘legacy’ guys screwed up the contract, the one nobody ever voted yes on🤦‍♀️🤣, in Managements favor, the benefit will be 4-6% at best… just correcting your “brilliant” forecasting skills🤯

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1 (Post 3395467)

As a group, they are by far the worst performers in transition 🤔

Some 06-and a few 07’s got me🙄