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Old 05-17-2022 | 09:54 AM
  #851  
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Originally Posted by Bluetruth
Sounds very probable. But why would Alaska wait that long as a small fish in a little stagnant pond by themselves? I'm half expecting for Alaska to make some moves right now to take jetBlue before jetBlue swallows up Spirit and gets a upper hand.
Too many airbuses to park and bases to close for AS to be interested in that.
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Old 05-17-2022 | 10:35 AM
  #852  
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Originally Posted by BeatNavy
Too many airbuses to park and bases to close for AS to be interested in that.
Literally took the words out of my mouth. It takes a while before people new to paying attention to Alaska, realize that their default position is to SHRINK the footprint, add seats and/or frequency via mainline OR regionals and call it growth. All those Max orders? I PROMISE you that if they thought they could sell them at a profit, retreat back to 2008 and turn a profit while hoping for the next economic downturn….. they would. I’ve said it before…. We are not a lion…. We are a jackal. We do not hunt out, seek prey and compete, we wait until something unfortunate happens to a competitor, and pick at the bones until another apex predator scares us off.
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Old 05-17-2022 | 11:02 AM
  #853  
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Originally Posted by av8or
Literally took the words out of my mouth. It takes a while before people new to paying attention to Alaska, realize that their default position is to SHRINK the footprint, add seats and/or frequency via mainline OR regionals and call it growth. All those Max orders? I PROMISE you that if they thought they could sell them at a profit, retreat back to 2008 and turn a profit while hoping for the next economic downturn….. they would. I’ve said it before…. We are not a lion…. We are a jackal. We do not hunt out, seek prey and compete, we wait until something unfortunate happens to a competitor, and pick at the bones until another apex predator scares us off.
Quite a powerful analogy there, and spot on..

AS has been a one trick pony for a long time, but a very profitable one none-the-less. Being the big fish in the small pond helped.... a lot.

Things are different now, and the hope is that this reality will force them outside of their comfort zone.. permanently.

It might take the bold move of bringing in management and/or a CEO who are far removed geographically, and culturally from the AS bubble, to guide this ship out of the dark ages while still maintaining profitability.
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Old 05-17-2022 | 11:58 AM
  #854  
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If Alaska had wanted to expand, they wouldn’t have sold off the East Coast Virgin America assets.
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Old 05-17-2022 | 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
If Alaska had wanted to expand, they wouldn’t have sold off the East Coast Virgin America assets.
I somewhat agree with you that they retreated from the East Coast expansion, but what assets did they sell off? Are you talking about, like the LGA gates, etc?

I'm just curious.
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Old 05-17-2022 | 01:49 PM
  #856  
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Originally Posted by All Bizniz
I somewhat agree with you that they retreated from the East Coast expansion, but what assets did they sell off? Are you talking about, like the LGA gates, etc?

I'm just curious.
By Anthony Noto – Reporter, New York Business Journal
May 16, 2018Alaska Airlines is closing its pilot base at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport.

This September, the Seattle-based airline plans to relocate its New York pilots to the West Coast where it needs to cover demand for busier operations (h/t FOX News).

West Coast operations make up a large share of Alaska’s flights. Pilots currently based out of JFK will have the opportunity to transfer to bases in California. All of Alaska Airlines' JFK-based pilots are being offered the opportunity to transfer to either Los Angeles or San Francisco, the report continued.
Some of the assets were the pilots themselves. Who would have seriously expected the FOs or even the junior CAs to do a transcontinental commute? Nor did they particularly want Virgin’s aircraft, terminating the Airbus leases and parking them as soon as feasible. It appears that buying Virgin was almost entirely a defensive move, just so no competitor could get it. And although they claimed it was to support national expansion in competition to the Bug Four, it soon became obvious that the expansion they were really interested in was pretty much in California.

Alaska Airlines dumps Dallas-Washington, DC/New York City routes

23 APRIL 2018 BY SETH MILLER
In late 2014 Virgin America toyed with a mid-continent hub. The carrier acquired gates at Love Field in Dallas and slots at New York City’s LaGuardia Airport (LGA) and Washington, DC’s Reagan National (DCA). The carrier planted its flag and began operations, focusing on major markets where it could compete against Southwest Airlines‘ massive hub operation. When the Alaska Airlines merger closed the routes shifted from A320 aircraft to the smaller Embraer E175s that were now available. And now, as the merger progresses, the routes are dying. In its earnings call today Alaska Airlines indicated that it agreed to lease the slots to Southwest Airlines.

As Alaska Airlines refocuses its energy on the “Most West Coast” marketing plan the one-off routes to these east coast airports show themselves to be vanity-driven more than core to the operation. In the 2014 slot allocation process, a result of the American Airlines/US Airways merger, Virgin America President and CEO David Cush called out the “mega-airlines” that it was now facing competition from. As a new entrant and smaller carrier it received access to a handful of the highly coveted slots at each airport. It also pushed hard against Southwest Airlines and Delta to gain access at Love Field. It is worth noting that one of the DOJ stipulations around approving the Alaska/Virgin merger requires that the combined carrier “shall not directly or indirectly sell, trade, lease, or sub-lease any of the US/AA Divestiture Assets without the prior written consent of the United States.” That approval was already granted. That is it now ceding these slots to Southwest is somewhat ironic in this context.

With these changes the LaGuardia stations will be closing; that is the only route the carrier operates from LGA; the carrier still operates one daily flight to San Francisco from DCA. At LaGuardia the move leaves JetBlue as the sole operator in the Marine Air Terminal.

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Old 05-18-2022 | 08:28 PM
  #857  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Some of the assets were the pilots themselves. Who would have seriously expected the FOs or even the junior CAs to do a transcontinental commute? Nor did they particularly want Virgin’s aircraft, terminating the Airbus leases and parking them as soon as feasible. It appears that buying Virgin was almost entirely a defensive move, just so no competitor could get it. And although they claimed it was to support national expansion in competition to the Bug Four, it soon became obvious that the expansion they were really interested in was pretty much in California.
No s41t sherlock
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Old 05-19-2022 | 02:25 AM
  #858  
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Originally Posted by All Bizniz
You mean AS attempting a hostile takeover of B6 if their share price tanks any further (down 30% in the last 6 months)? That would be interesting..
AS stock is tanking. Actually, everything is tanking. Literally everything.
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Old 05-19-2022 | 04:36 AM
  #859  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
AS stock is tanking. Actually, everything is tanking. Literally everything.
​JB's tanking share price hasn't stopped them from aggressively going after NK, so at this point, if the hunter believes the deal is worth the pursuit, they're gonna go for it anyways.

Their (JB's) declining market cap however, does make them vulnerable to being hunted too, and that's where despite everybody's declining values, AS (down 12% in 6 mos., 45% in 5 years - yikes!), or anyone for that matter, could also make a move on them.

From Investopedia: "In an acquisition, the market cap is used to determine whether a takeover candidate represents a good value or not to the acquirer."
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Old 05-19-2022 | 06:23 AM
  #860  
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Originally Posted by All Bizniz

From Investopedia: "In an acquisition, the market cap is used to determine whether a takeover candidate represents a good value or not to the acquirer."
That does not say that market cap is the sole metric, and it's definitely not.

In fact it's possible for the actual value of the company to approach or even exceed market cap if the market is way down, in which case you've got yourself a smokin' deal.

A low market cap combined with lots of cash (or even other hard assets) makes you a tempting and realistic target. In other industries that could even set you up to get bought, dismantled, cash looted and assets auctioned off... there are people who specialize in making a quick and large profit that way and all it takes is a handful of people and access to enough cash or credit to gain a controlling interest.

Fortunately for us, in this era the fed would not allow an airline acquisition by someone who just wants to part it out, so potential buyers need to be able and interested in actually running an airline without losing their arse. So we're a very niche market, mostly other airlines or people who have experience with airlines.
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