Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Airline Pilot Forums > Major > Alaska
Anchorage Seniority & Projected Movement? >

Anchorage Seniority & Projected Movement?

Search

Notices

Anchorage Seniority & Projected Movement?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 12-26-2025 | 09:37 AM
  #141  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 1,891
Likes: 186
Default

Originally Posted by word302
Maybe, but predicting the future off a single bid is idiotic.
It's one way to look at it. However, it's just as easy to say the same thing about someone who is constantly predicting things getting better in terms of growth, when that growth has never materialized in over 2 years. Don't forget we will reduce SFO and LAX further effective October. That's when it gets really fun.
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 09:51 AM
  #142  
On Reserve
 
Joined: Dec 2025
Posts: 23
Likes: 16
Default

Originally Posted by word302
I would count on 7-8 years and be happy if it ends up being less. Way too many variables right now.
so realistically, 10 years on property. Geez
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 09:57 AM
  #143  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,388
Likes: 220
From: 737 FO
Default

Originally Posted by GoodJet
It's one way to look at it. However, it's just as easy to say the same thing about someone who is constantly predicting things getting better in terms of growth, when that growth has never materialized in over 2 years. Don't forget we will reduce SFO and LAX further effective October. That's when it gets really fun.
Except we are actually hiring and upgrading currently in larger numbers than we have done for the last 2 years (which was 0 for most of that time due to circumstances outside of our control) so one of our predictions is based on reality. Yes SFO and LAX will reduce further, which sucks, but SAN and likely other bases will be growing. It's not all unicorns and rainbows but claiming upgrade time will rise to worse than 13-15 years in the coming years is silly.
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 10:24 AM
  #144  
Thread Starter
Living The Dream
 
Joined: Jan 2023
Posts: 143
Likes: 5
Default

Originally Posted by Flislow
First post here and this seems the most relevant thread for seniority progression.

Been here two years and I think we’ve shrunk since? I’ve move backwards in relative base seniority and am at risk of getting displaced from live in base and having to commute to reserve.

Can anyone put their thumb on a realistic upgrade time from today into any base? New ALPA Seniority tracker tool says on retirements alone, I’d be looking at 2036-37. My time here has been characterized by management kicking the can down the road on hiring promises and I’ve got little to show for the 2 years under my belt. Still on reserve
When I started this thread I used projected retirements as a starting point and posted here to check my logic. I still think retirement numbers the best place to start and the new ALPA tool makes that easier. Projected retirements are slow and steady. Who knows what happens with SLI, fleet plans, and bases.
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 10:41 AM
  #145  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 1,891
Likes: 186
Default

Originally Posted by word302
Except we are actually hiring and upgrading currently in larger numbers than we have done for the last 2 years (which was 0 for most of that time due to circumstances outside of our control) so one of our predictions is based on reality. Yes SFO and LAX will reduce further, which sucks, but SAN and likely other bases will be growing. It's not all unicorns and rainbows but claiming upgrade time will rise to worse than 13-15 years in the coming years is silly.
We hired 40 in 2025 which covers 55% of our attrition for 2025. There will be 20 less captains on the seniority list in June of 2026 than there were in June of 2025, per bid 2026-06. This is the known data for that year. It’s the only known data for staffing in 2026. The only known data for hiring in 2026 is that classes will end in February per the last pilot call.

“SAN and likely other bases will be growing” is just speculation. There is zero data to support that.
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 11:09 AM
  #146  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,388
Likes: 220
From: 737 FO
Default

Originally Posted by GoodJet
We hired 40 in 2025 which covers 55% of our attrition for 2025. There will be 20 less captains on the seniority list in June of 2026 than there were in June of 2025, per bid 2026-06. This is the known data for that year. It’s the only known data for staffing in 2026. The only known data for hiring in 2026 is that classes will end in February per the last pilot call.

“SAN and likely other bases will be growing” is just speculation. There is zero data to support that.
Do you think you're some kind of master mathematician by stating that not hiring for 18 months put us behind retirements in both seats? Profound.
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 11:15 AM
  #147  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 1,891
Likes: 186
Default

Originally Posted by word302
Do you think you're some kind of master mathematician by stating that not hiring for 18 months put us behind retirements in both seats? Profound.
The important question to ask yourself is why there has been zero effort to catch up. Until there is, there is no growth and an ever-increasing upgrade time.
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 11:17 AM
  #148  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,388
Likes: 220
From: 737 FO
Default

Originally Posted by GoodJet
The important question to ask yourself is why there has been zero effort to catch up. Until there is, there is no growth and an ever-increasing upgrade time.
Hahahaha. We are hiring and upgrading. Upgrade times have dropped with each bid this year as expected by everyone except you. You are not a serious person.
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 11:19 AM
  #149  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 1,891
Likes: 186
Default

Originally Posted by word302
Hahahaha. We are hiring and upgrading. Upgrade times have dropped with each bid this year as expected by everyone except you. You are not a serious person.
Lets see what happens on this bid....
Reply
Old 12-26-2025 | 11:22 AM
  #150  
On Reserve
 
Joined: Dec 2025
Posts: 23
Likes: 16
Default

Originally Posted by GoodJet
We hired 40 in 2025 which covers 55% of our attrition for 2025. There will be 20 less captains on the seniority list in June of 2026 than there were in June of 2025, per bid 2026-06. This is the known data for that year. It’s the only known data for staffing in 2026. The only known data for hiring in 2026 is that classes will end in February per the last pilot call.

“SAN and likely other bases will be growing” is just speculation. There is zero data to support that.
I honestly appreciate the realistic take. I try not to be all doom and gloom, but my limited experience, what I hear on the line, and history, tells me otherwise. Of course things could change, but if status quo is any indication, I’m in for a long, frustrating wait. The only solace would be for this next contract to be industry leading in every section due to the career outlook here vs elsewhere.

Reply
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
TonyC
FedEx
27
01-23-2019 06:06 PM
forgot to bid
Major
485
04-03-2009 07:34 PM
Anonymous
Cargo
7
03-18-2009 11:59 AM
Myboyblue
Cargo
7
08-21-2006 08:02 AM
Freighter Captain
Cargo
21
08-13-2006 10:29 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Your Privacy Choices