nah, let’s keep making wild baseless predictions.

 

The subject of the thread is "ANC Seniority & Projected Movement". The current projection is not good. There are some wild predictions like upgrading will remain at the 7-8 year mark. Or claims like we are growing. We are clearly not as our hiring for 2025 equaled 55% of our attrition. 2026 hiring has already been halted and training will end in February. Our pilot group continues to shrink. There is no datapoint that contradicts this. We are only hiring and upgrading to cover approximately 50% of our attrition.

 

So have upgrades gotten progressively more junior this year or more senior? Now explain why you think that trend is suddenly going to reverse. We've run 4 classes hiring 58 pilots in 2 years with 17 months straight without running a class. it will take a bit to catch up with retirements. Who said we halted hiring? You really need to go outside man, it's just not that serious.

 

Upgrades for my base are at 10 years + per the last bid. Upgrades will get even more senior after 2026-06 when downgrades are processed and junior pilots are no longer captains.

We hired 40 in 2025 per the list provided by the membership committee. Where are you getting 58? Are you projecting into 2026? As those classes have not yet started.

As per the all pilot call classes will stop in February. Did you listen to the call? Or just denying this was said?

 

Reading comprehension man, 58 in 2 years. We only hired 18 in 2024 before the door blew out and halted everything. We are adding captains just like we have in every bid this year. In each bid the junior awarded captain has gotten more junior. Reductions won't change that trend.

 

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You do understand that including 2024 hiring requires including 2024 attrition right? 49 pilots retired or were fired in 2024. The total number for 2025 is 74 if there are no extras that will not be known until the January 1 list comes out. If you include both years we have only hired to replace 47% of attrition for 2024 and 2025. Perhaps this paints a clearer picture for you.

While it is true that during the past 3 bids the most junior pilot to upgrade went from 2007 hire (lol) to a 2015 hire in my base none of these bids were a reduction bid. So no junior pilots could be replaced. Both the current bid and the additional planned bid for 2026 will reduce LAX and SFO even further. Both of these bids will cause the seniority of captains to go up. I realize that this is a complex issue for you and difficult to understand so perhaps this will help clear things up for you.

It is important to remember that pilots can be displaced or downgraded during a reduction bid.

 

The Q1 2026 10-Q will be telling. if it still has the 36 max 10s in 2027 I think we are in good shape. But I’ve been open about I’m optimistic about the max 7/10 getting certified this year (Q3 2026)

that’ll create upgraded and hires in Q4 but this summer will still be very short staffed on the fo side 90 new hires isn’t enough

but rest of 2026 will be more of the same

36 max 10s at 14 pilots a plane will be 500 new hires and upgrade in 27

but my glass is half full

 

Show your math. Reductions do not change the fact that we are adding net captains. The same FOs that want to be captains bid whether reductions exist or not. If you understand math (complex I know) you'd know that reductions with a net gain in captains should not change that trend. Also you just prove the point that picking some random date in the past is a silly way to talk about growth/progression. Why don't you want to use September of 2021 as your gold standard of growth? Oh yeah, because it doesn't fit your doomsday diatribe. The point I was making is that hiring completely stopped and using any time during that 18 months is going to paint a different picture than if you pick a date before or after that. You choose to cherry-pick data that fits your agenda (and it's a weird agenda) just like you did with fleet count. You'll do the same thing you did with the fleet, you'll scream the same thing over and over again until it's no longer true and then quiet down for a bit until you find something else to take out of context and be angry about. It's old and tired man and nobody is listening.

 

How is the fleet count data off? Since 2019 the fleet has grown by about 6 tails. That has not changed. What is off about that? You keep asking me questions and disregarding my answers. How is this bid growth? Over the last two years we will not match attrition by over 50% This isn't off by a small amount. Bid 2026-06 will also not match attrition as well.

You asked several questions which I answered and then you just disregard the answer since you don't like it. If we are growing why are new hire classes stopping in February? You keep asking me things and disregarding what I have to say then bringing up a completely different subject. Now it is fleet numbers. I haven't memorized the SEC documents but it is all there in my old posts. Why bring this up again?

 

Your data is not wrong, it's highly skewed to push your agenda of doom. Choosing a date in the middle of a long stretch of not hiring as your start point for showing no growth isn't genuine in proving anything other than we were stagnant for 2 years thanks to Boeing and a catastophic failure. Just like choosing a date in 2019 right before we started offloading Airbus after a merger isn't genuine in showing a lack of fleet growth (never mind that something else was happening in the world to push the company to offload terrible leases). You are picking worst-case scenarios that center on your agenda of how terrible this place is managed. We're a net positive 12 airframes for the year and even more if you include the HAL fleet (see how anyone can focus on different data points to "prove" a point?). You were adamant that we would still be smaller fleet-wise through the end of this year until it was obvious we wouldn't be and you'll do the same with pilot count until that changes. Then you'll find a different drum to pound. Rinse, repeat. You're predictable and unoriginal. You've been unhappy here since you were hired and I just don't understand how anyone can live their life like that. I've mostly stopped responding to you and I'll likely go back to doing so because you're a broken record and it's a tiring circular argument and neither of us knows what the future actually holds but you are adamant that it won't be good. I'm hopeful it will be.