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Alaska Air Hiring

Old Today | 09:32 AM
  #8831  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
They are not enough to make up for potential realistic stagnation and fleet consolidation, if it comes to pass. We are stagnate right now, consolidation is TBD.

A 25 y/o or 35 y/o new hire should have a nice long run in the left seat of something. A 45+ plus new-hire? Not strictly assured.

More likely there will be some growth, and current payscales facilitate early retirement for those who want it so most likely the upgrade time will be in the 10-12 year range for a while. But if anything goes wrong it could be worse (AZ, 321/717 dumped without one-for-one replacement).

If HA has massive retirement numbers (like AA) that I'm not aware of, then I'm completely off base.
The numbers I’m looking at aren’t negligible. It’s about 50% of the combined pilot group in the next 15 years. I’m using rough numbers but I wouldn’t consider that negligible.
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Old Today | 09:38 AM
  #8832  
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Originally Posted by MrBogardi
The numbers I’m looking at aren’t negligible. It’s about 50% of the combined pilot group in the next 15 years. I’m using rough numbers but I wouldn’t consider that negligible.
50% should do the trick.

But 40%, plus stagnation and consolidation might not. That is worst case, but rational worst case not crazy pessimistic worst case.

Worth noting that on the AS side we have a backlog of senior FO's waiting to upgrade, as in senior to our junior CA's. Recent contractual improvements and basing shuffle is probably going to flush out those people on future bids. Always a few lifer FO's, but the number is too big for that.

We don't have the retirements of the big three, and our growth is historically measured at best. Last M&A consolidation dumped all VX airbus with basically no replacements. The airline ended up right back where it started after the dust settled (covid early outs helped ease the pain, which was felt way more in CA than in SEA).
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Old Today | 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted by MrBogardi
The numbers I’m looking at aren’t negligible. It’s about 50% of the combined pilot group in the next 15 years. I’m using rough numbers but I wouldn’t consider that negligible.
So someone hired today, or recently, won’t see the very bottom of the captain list for 15 years where in all the other young people hired over the last 5-10 years who were in their 30’s will have another 20 years to go in the left seat in front of them — Assuming no other mergers, recessions, or downsizing.
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Old Today | 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by TradeWinds
So someone hired today, or recently, won’t see the very bottom of the captain list for 15 years where in all the other young people hired over the last 5-10 years who were in their 30’s will have another 20 years to go in the left seat in front of them — Assuming no other mergers, recessions, or downsizing.
The vast majority of the young people hired in the last 5-10 years haven't seen the left seat yet. It's the pain of single fleet operations, Captain upgrade is your only career advancement move. When you introduce widebodies you have a lot of people who would rather go WB FO than NB CA, so you see much more junior upgrades.

Alaska doesn't have that, and even if they get a no fence SLI, there are going to be very few WB positions available from the time SLI finishes until we take our 17th 787. The number of WB aircraft the combined entity will have is a small percentage of the overall fleet. Especially given the fact that the 787 is moving to SEA prior to SLI so all the positions for the aircraft on property will be spoken for by legacy HA pilots. Plan for a very slow upgrade if you come to Alaska.
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Old Today | 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by TradeWinds
So someone hired today, or recently, won’t see the very bottom of the captain list for 15 years where in all the other young people hired over the last 5-10 years who were in their 30’s will have another 20 years to go in the left seat in front of them — Assuming no other mergers, recessions, or downsizing.
You assume the fleet will be exactly the same in 15 years as it is now.
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Old Today | 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by WarmSandDreams
The vast majority of the young people hired in the last 5-10 years haven't seen the left seat yet. It's the pain of single fleet operations, Captain upgrade is your only career advancement move. When you introduce widebodies you have a lot of people who would rather go WB FO than NB CA, so you see much more junior upgrades.

Alaska doesn't have that, and even if they get a no fence SLI, there are going to be very few WB positions available from the time SLI finishes until we take our 17th 787. The number of WB aircraft the combined entity will have is a small percentage of the overall fleet. Especially given the fact that the 787 is moving to SEA prior to SLI so all the positions for the aircraft on property will be spoken for by legacy HA pilots. Plan for a very slow upgrade if you come to Alaska.
One of the calls said at least 42+ widebody for the foreseeable future. 18 787 and 24 330s. That number could get bigger or smaller.
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Old Today | 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted by MrBogardi
You assume the fleet will be exactly the same in 15 years as it is now.
In 15 years there will be 2 fleet types, that’s best case assuming the international flying survives.
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