We are making slow steady progress and starting to move into the more difficult areas of the contract to negotiate. Several sections are TAd but with the exception of 2, they have been low hanging fruit. Our union advised us to prepare for a lengthy period of negotiation, possibly another two years. We could be looking to apply for mediation as well end of the year. The hopeful and wishful thinking is it will not take that long given what is happening around us but there is no reason to believe we shouldn't be strapping in for 2 more years, this union is not settling for anything less then industry leading or industry standard. We just cannot keep doing things the way we have been doing.

Also, you probably know this, but ATW isn't set in stone. If it serves their purpose to close it as a base they will.

IBT is negotiating. The better question is what is the company willing to give us for a contract. Seems there's no recession and the legacies aren't furloughing, so the company bargaining plan isn't working.

Timetable is sometime between tomorrow and the heat death of the universe. More likely we don't have 3 years left for a contract because we'll be below minimum viable staffed airplanes.

Nothing is set in stone here without a contract in the near-future. Anyone making life decisions based on one of the small bases is really rolling the dice.

Nobody can give you an accurate timetable for negotiations at any airline, it's just not reasonable, not even a ball park estimate. The union is doing everything they can IMO. We will have a contract when the company wants to give us a contract that is on par with or above the industry, it's really as simple as that. The company can drag the process out for many many years if they choose. We do have some leverage at this time and we seem to be making some progress but that will instantly end if/when the leverage subsides. We have a new agreement with a flight school and once we start filling classes in January with 1500hr CFI's we could lose most of our leverage. Will legacy slow down hiring next year during the recession? That will slow our attrition. The accountants are already running the numbers for parking airbuses, closing bases while keeping the old dirt cheap labor contract. We'll see but I would plan on a few years for a TA and anything less would be a pleasant surprise. This will be the first time in G4 history that the company won't be able to only throw us some higher pay rates, nothing will be substandard in this next TA so it will take time.

That’s assuming that 1500hr CFIs want to come here to be paid less than a Regional FO, put up with our sub-par work rules, and be based somewhere undesirable (unless they already live there).

There's always someone that thinks flying an A320 or 737 is a more valuable type to the legacies than a CRJ/175 (look at the underwing engine time memes).

To put my guess in here on the contract, I'd say the companies been truly on board with negotiating for a few months and they've got about 30% of the contract completed. So probably less than a year to a complete TA. But some economist types think a hard protracted recession is on the horizon and so that might delay the contract significantly if it hits before its done. It's possible we get aquired before we got a contract done in my opinion.

Basically, unless you specifically like our types of schedules, which absolutely are different than other airline and cargo jobs, or want to live in one of our junior bases, I would put this place on the bottom of your list until at least the spring.

Will it actually be possible to stall on a contract for a year? How goes attrition and recruitment? I'd imagine allegiant will be half the size in a year absent a new contract.

Allegiant stock hit a 10 year low today. $71.34

Unbelievable, considering it was at $268 in 2021.

This should concern everyone.

it’s actually been as low as $65 this month-but yes, extremely concerning.