Both. Being that there are only 23 FOs in BNA, if 4 of them decide that they want to leave or go to another base (or upgrade), you'll get in immediately. If everyone is happy there, then you're stuck for a while trying to get in.

Outside of ATW, FNT, or PVU, I wouldn't count on getting your base of choice immediately and instead having to wait somewhere else until you get in. I would say 6 months will get you the base of choice.

This is far too optimistic an assessment in my opinion and I am sure most would agree. There is even a new hire in the last class who wanted ATW but is going to need to commute to BLI for 2-3 months (training plus the line until April or May). They haven't been able to grow provo yet. As far as BNA, when you say "immediately," you mean at the effective date of the vacancy they open to backfill their spot, which is currently running 6 months out. So no they will not get in immediately, they will need to wait 6 months, less the 3 months spent in training. This doesn't even account for the list of FOs already on property waiting to get in.

This airline is a place where past results usually never guarantee future performance because the bases are tiny compared to other airlines, retirements are minimal and growth is mostly in the next new base. Looking at the standing bids, on the FO side 3 are bidding out of BNA and 2 are waiting to get in with BNA as their first choice so there is a chance but unlikely it will be right away.

Any idea on best guess to DSM?

DSM used to be a revolving door but it looks like most have set roots now, I only see 1 FO bidding out and 1 FO bidding in. No DSM vacancies on the current bid. It's really hard to predict but a rough guess would be 1-3 months to get the award then about a 4 month wait from the award to effective date (assuming the music doesn't stop). The vacancies left over for the Dec 5 class are looking unusual, 5 SFB, 6 FLL, 2 PIE, 2 LAS, 2 FNT, 2 SAV. That will change but just a ballpark.

the music stopped when we began only being able to hire about 15 per month (and decreasing) instead of 25-35. It will stay stopped until the new contract is completed whenever that is. Do the math, if we have 25 bases and only hire 15 a month, I wouldn’t count on anything. Dsm is not the revolving door it was a year ago. No reason it won’t be the new TYS where pilots have been waiting a year now.

January starts 20 guaranteed RATP new hires from the flight school pipeline program. Their flight school cost will be subsidized and details on their training contract should be announced next month. So that's 20 a month plus the 10-15 others that want to work for half regional pay. Just a rumor but I heard that an agreement with a second flight school is being negotiated so any negotiation leverage we thought we had is quickly going away. Paying for ratings and replacing attrition is much much cheaper than giving the whole pilot group a large raise. As I've been saying for a long time, expect no TA for years.

little bit of a bummer on DSM was really hoping for it out of training. I can make it work to get there though I suppose.

Since when can pilots go from zero to hero in 2 months? This is false. Management blowing smoke up analysts *ss. I don't doubt the program is coming but any crazy incentives for these students prior to a contract is going to blow up in management's face when existing pilots quit in droves.

The pilots in that program need to get their ratings, then turn around & instruct there for 1-2 years to reach 1500/1250? hours so we won’t see any of them for quite a while. Unless I completely misunderstand the way that program works.