Whoever told you that...

Do not ever believe another thing they tell you:rolleyes:

Where are you getting that outlandish, fake news?

Lol what? You’re implying that AA is done running new hire classes then. Flow might stop when the contacts expire. In 8 years. Hell, lil old peed on will flow 70 just from their list.... I’m curious if they may merge the WO into a single regional. They keep saying and have said it will Never happen. Only Jerry Jones does the opposite of what he says more than airline mgt at times.

BS!! Let me guess, CNN?

AA isn’t hiring if the flow stops. What I think he is referring to is how Envoy can meter their flow based on operational necessity. Not sure how that works exactly, though.

Envoy is currently flowing 29 a month. In less than 1.5 years the flow cuts in half to 15 a month or less with piedmont and psa barely sending at the most critical time that AA needs max hiring due to the climax of retirements. Do the math..lots of off the street hires soooooon....hope for allllllll

If you think that AA and Envoy will not renegociate that 15 pilots per month, you are naive.

At that rate, with no attrition, flow would be 14 years. Laughable, when hiring across all the majors soon will be about 5 years for all the regional pilots each year.

..then..

You gotta be trollin. 15/month is still 180 just from envoy. psa is going to 10/month sometime this year.. thats 300/year right there plus another 70ish from piedmont.. lets call it 350 for flows per year. sounds slightly more accurate than "135" a year.

Just know in a class of 40 from AA only about 2-3 will be pure ots civilians for quite a while.

Let’s follow through with your numbers. Last year, in 2017 there were 225 OTS Mil. So added together, 350+225=575.

Plan for this year is 900 hires (will go up in a few years as retirements hit their peak.) 900-575=325 OTS Civ. With 25 classes for the year (No new class starts Christmastime), that would be 13 OTS Civ. In each class.

This assumes constant OTS Mil. More importantly, currently 29 per month is the flow from Envoy, not 15 per month. That is 29-15= 14 more per month. That is 7 more per class (roughly, with 2 classes most months). That means about 13-7=6 per class is OTS, not 2-3 per class.

What you both miss is market forces pushing AA and Envoy renegociating the flow number of 15 upward. (See my point above.) Further, the hire rate will go up from 900 in just a few years.

Bottom line, two points. Flow will not be 15 per month, due to market forces. OTS Civ. will still grow to more than 2-3 per class, but will not be a huge percentage of hires. That is what my crystal ball says. It has good accuracy.

72% white guys in 2017. 11% women, 17% minorities.

Unfortunately the estimate of white male supply pool is closer to 80%. Can you imagine the uproar, or perhaps law suits, if 8% was taken from the female/minority supply pool? Or if those groups were required to be hired at 90% of their expected hiring numbers?